In writing about the end of the Bute House agreement I
had assumed that the independence movement remained rational and would act with
the aim of furthering that goal rather than destroying it. I had also assumed
that Humza Yousaf had consulted with his Scottish Greens colleagues and had
planned for all eventualities. That too has proven to be a false assumption. If
he had known that the Scottish Greens were to vote against him in a confidence
motion it would have been insane for him to end the Bute House agreement. But
then again it is equally insane for the Scottish Greens to vote to bring down
the Scottish government and cause an early election to Holyrood. So, we are
dealing with the insane and the insane.
Rationally the Scottish Greens are no worse off than
they were between 2016 and 2021 when they informally supported the Scottish government.
But it is clear that we are dealing with human nature here. Patrick Harvie and
Lorna Slater have just lost very well-paid jobs which they have got used to.
They have made plans which depend on them keeping these jobs for the next two
years and more. They are furious and want revenge. It’s extraordinary that
Humza Yousaf didn’t find out that this was going to happen.
From being a nothing much story, this has in a few
hours become an everything story. If Yousaf is defeated in a confidence vote which
may well depend on how former SNP leadership candidate Ash Regan votes now that
she has joined Alba there is a good chance that we will have a Holyrood
election very soon. Ash Regan is really Alex Salmond in a dress so the fate of
the SNP will depend on Salmond. Other factors include the presence or absence
of Michael Matheson. To think that the fate of a government could depend on
children watching a Celtic game in Morocco.
If there is a Holyrood election it is hard to imagine
a worse time for it to occur than now for the independence movement. They all held
their banner at the last march as if they were united with each other even as
they tried to divide the UK, but the independence movement has been fighting
itself since at least Alex Salmond was arrested and that fight is about to get
still more nasty.
The problem is that Scottish nationalists still think that
they are in 2021 when the SNP won 47.7% of the vote. But those days are past
now and in the past they must remain. The arithmetic has changed.
The peculiar voting system for the Scottish Parliament
means that a party that wins 47% of the votes is going to win all its seats via
the constituency vote and very few if any with the second list seat vote. It made
voting for the SNP with the second vote pointless. Scottish nationalists
rationally ought to have picked either the Greens or Alba to maximise the
number of independence supporting MSPs.
But this logic only works when the SNP vote is very
high. If the SNP vote declines to around 30% then it will need all of the first
and second votes it can get. If you don’t win the maximum number of constituencies,
you need the maximum number of list seats to make up the difference. But this
completely destroys the logic of using the second vote for the Greens or Alba.
SNP voters reflecting on how the Greens and Alba
brought down the SNP government may well be reluctant to give them their second
votes anyway.
But this has the potential to destroy the Greens. Only
34,000 Scots voted for the Greens at constituency level in 2021, but it won eight
seats because 220,000 Scots voted for it on the list. The vast majority of
those 220,000 were SNP supporters rather than genuine Greens.
It is for this reason that the reaction of Patrick
Harvie and Lorna Slater is metaphorically suicidal. If SNP voters turn against
the Greens, it could easily end up with no seats. This is why I assumed that the
Greens would continue to support the SNP government. It is insane not to.
For Pro UK people the same logic applies as in the
General Election but with an addition. In much of urban Scotland it will make
sense to vote Labour while in parts of the Northeast, Borders and Perthshire it
may make sense to vote Conservative. The Lib Dems will be favourites in a few
other places. But this also means that in parts of the Central Belt it will
make sense to vote Labour with the constituency vote and another Pro UK party
with the list vote. If Labour wins
enough constituencies the second vote will be wasted unless it goes to another
Pro UK party.
The likely result of 2024 Holyrood election could be similar
to the 2007 election. Labour and the SNP would have a similar number of seats
but there would be a Pro UK majority of MSPs. It was peculiarly stupid of the
Conservatives in 2007 to prop up Alex Salmond. This was the cause of everything
that followed. But we can hope that everyone has learned their lesson and would
cooperate.
The prize on offer is this and it is quite close. A Pro
UK majority in Holyrood used cleverly and not selfishly can begin to
investigate the SNP government since 2007. Who knows what a forensic audit
might find out. So too a Pro UK majority of Scottish MPs in Westminster
destroys the SNP argument about a democratic deficit.
There may be two elections in 2024 and the SNP may be
defeated in both, but there is a joker in this game of poker. Imagine if
someone else were to be charged in the middle of either campaign. That could
destroy both the SNP and the Scottish Greens. The independence movement is
committing suicide.
