Brexit has always been a double-edged sword in Scotland.
The same goes for leaving without a deal. It encourages support for Scottish independence
and therefore helps the SNP, but at the same time makes Scottish independence
harder to achieve and therefore hurts the SNP.
Brexit is a Right Left issue in modern British
politics. People in the Centre and Centre Left almost universally oppose leaving
the EU. A few people on the Left like Jeremy Corbyn follow the historical
precedent of the 1970s that opposed joining the EEC because it was a
capitalistic business-oriented block whose rules would prevent socialism, but
they are few now.
It is for this reason that 61% of Scots voted to
Remain. Labour, Lib Dem and gradualist SNP voters were horrified by Britain’s decision
to leave the EU, not so much for economic reasons as cultural reasons. Scotland
today is perhaps the most nationalistic place in Europe. Nowhere else apart
perhaps from Catalonia and Ukraine is there a secession movement that constantly
wins such support.
But Left-wing Scots don’t like to see themselves as
nationalists, even though supporting independence is the precise definition of a
nationalist. They therefore have come up with an odd combination of ideologies.
They are internationalist nationalists. What else can “Independence in Europe”
mean?
Of course, there is an obvious contradiction in being
an internationalist nationalist. If you can’t bear to be part of a union that
has existed since 1707 where everyone speaks the same language as you do, how
do you suppose you will be able to bear being in the European Union. The EU
will pay far less attention to Scotland than the British Government does. But
perhaps Scots would not mind. The anyone but England attitude extends to
politics. Scottish nationalists would be happy to be ruled by Brussels and
become a region of a United States of Europe just so long as the English cannot
outvote us.
There is no question that Brexit has caused some
Left-wing Scots to flirt with Scottish nationalism. It has indeed caused some of
the Lefty Remainer press in England to hope that Nicola Sturgeon succeeds just
because they have come to loathe Britain so much that they would delight in our
island being partitioned. But the problem for the SNP is that their whole
argument since the 1980s has been based on the UK remaining in the EU and no
one has properly addressed the consequences of the UK leaving. Scottish
nationalists have more passion for leaving the UK now, but their intellectual
argument has been destroyed, because “Independence in Europe” only ever made sense
if Britain remained.
It is true that an ultra-soft Brexit such as “Norway”
or indeed Theresa May’s “Brexit in Name Only” would have softened the blow for
some Scots. Remainer Scots might have been content enough with such a deal that
they would not have decided to lend their support to the SNP. But the SNP would
still have campaigned for independence. They would have campaigned for independence
indeed if we had voted for Remain.
Trying to keep Scottish nationalists happy by giving
them more powers or by voting Remain or by giving them the softest possible
Brexit, would not stop them wanting independence. The only thing that stops
them wanting independence is making it harder to achieve. This is the main
benefit of leaving the transition period without compromising with EU.
The more Britain can leave the EU the better. A simple
free trade deal would be welcome, but even this has never been necessary,
because the long-term benefits of leaving the EU will more than compensate for
any loss of trade with the EU.
Brexit has been compared to Scottish independence, but
it differs crucially in that Brexit could materially change the British economy
by making it less regulated, less bureaucratic and more open to trade with the
rest of the world outside the EU. Brexit could make Britain more capitalistic
not least because we would be escaping the social democratic regulation that
the EU imposes on its members. Scottish independence has no such potential benefits
because those in favour of it do not wish Scotland to be more capitalistic,
they want the opposite. This is like hoping capitalistic South Korea would become more prosperous by emulating the North.
Likewise joining a protectionist bloc and imposing tariffs on
our nearest neighbour and greatest trade partner, while at the same time
signing up to more and more bureaucracy and regulation for our businesses could
only make a Scotland richer in a world in which Adam Smith wrote The Poverty of
Nations.
Let’s imagine the ideal solution. The whole of the UK
leaves the EU without a deal. The UK legislates so that the Irish backstop
barely applies, putting the onus on dealing with the EU’s external border on
the Irish Republic. The example of the Irish Republic would show very vividly what
Scotland would become if it became independent. Irish goods would have to pay tariffs
with Britain and the EU border between North and South would have to be monitored
in some way. Take note Scotland. This will happen to you.
The key to defeating Scottish nationalism is to ignore
the fact that Brexit has annoyed some Scots. This has led some of them to lend
their support to the SNP. But this support is soft. If it could be shown beyond
all reasonable doubt that Scottish independence would lead to a hard border
between England and Scotland and make it impossible for Scotland to continue to
use the pound, then this soft support will melt away like mist in the morning. The
Leftist Scottish middle classes may vote Lib Dem, SNP or Labour and they may
wish to temper their nationalism with the warm glow of internationalism, but if
they really thought that Scottish independence would make them poorer, their
houses worth less and leave their children with fewer prospects, then they would reject it.
The SNP’s emotional argument is very powerful, but so is having a certain standard of living. Scottish nationalism can win hearts, but minds can be swayed by the intellectual argument that quality of life in Scotland would be damaged by leaving the UK, because we all feel emotional about our jobs, our families and our children’s futures too.
The way to counter Scottish nationalism is to point
out how Brexit has made Scottish independence no longer a small step where
nothing much would change in Britain and we would all remain the best of friends, to
it being an enormous step that would put Scotland and the former UK on
completely divergent possibly antagonistic paths with competing interests. There
is already conflict between the EU and the UK. It may turn ugly. You cannot
expect to remain friends if you are part of the EU suing the UK. Why should the
UK even cooperate with such a bloc, let alone defend it? If Trump decided to
leave NATO, then the UK would certainly follow. Our only likely enemy Russia, would have to fight all the way through the EU before it reached us. Perhaps the EU could sue Russia if that happened.
The more ties the UK can cut with the EU the more ties
Scotland would have to cut with the former UK in order to be independent in the
EU. This is the double-edged sword in action. Do you really dear middle-class
nationalists want to be in a different trading bloc to your greatest trade partner.
Most food after all arrives in Scotland from England. Do you really want these
lorries to be stopped and tariffs applied to the goods they contain? Do you
really want to be an EU citizen when this would give you no more rights to live
and work in London than a Bulgarian? There is no guarantee that the UK would
allow Scottish citizens to remain British citizens. Do you really want your house to end up being
priced first in Scots Pounds and then in Euros? This would also mean your
salary would be paid in two currencies that both could both rise and fall against Sterling?
If you want all of those things, then by all means vote for the SNP, because that
is what they will give you.
Let’s hope the warm glow of nationalist internationalism would keep you warm at winter before its contradictions became apparent.
