Let’s imagine that somehow the UK leaves the EU
sometime around the end of October and makes a clean break. The EU faced with
the prospect of no deal might at the last minute give us a more favourable
deal. Alternatively, the UK might actually leave with out further negotiation. All
the attempts by Remainers to thwart Brexit might fail, not least because the EU
might decide that it doesn’t want troublesome Britain to be an EU member any
longer. What would happen next for the SNP?
There would, no doubt, be some economic disruption and
therefore SNP attempts to blame the wicked Tory Brexit for any and all
difficulties arising. There would be some Europhile anger. But what if despite
all the Remainer warnings leaving without a deal didn’t lead to chaos and that
the problems were short lived. After all Britain would simply be in the
position in relation to the EU that most of the world is. Lots of countries get
on fine without being in either the EU single market or its customs union. We
did too prior to joining. The SNP therefore might be in for a rerun of 2016.
Short term anger about the Leave vote lessened as it became clear that the UK
economy was doing fine. So long as the UK economy remains resilient in 2019/2020
the same will happen again.
For so long as there is a Conservative Government it
will be possible to block SNP requests for a second independence referendum.
They can either go down the illegal route and face a Pro UK boycott and
possible jail or they can wait. If the SNP loses its pro-independence majority at
the next Scottish Parliamentary election, then that will be it. Independence
will be off the table for the foreseeable future. The SNP’s best chance is that
sometime soon there is a General Election leading to a Labour Government
dependent on SNP votes. Would Jeremy Corbyn give the SNP a second referendum as
the price for their support? Who knows? But faced with a choice between Britain
and anyone who hates Britain he always goes for the latter. So, he probably
would.
But the UK would already have left the EU. How would this
effect the argument? This requires some detailed analysis.
1. Currency.
An independent Scotland, if it wished to join the EU
would have to have its own currency and would have to promise to join the Euro.
These are conditions of applying to join. There may be ways round this. There
may be opt outs. But in principle the Scottish public would have to go through
changing pounds sterling into pounds Scots and then into Euros. Any debt such
as a mortgage denominated in Sterling could either increase or decrease
depending on the exchange rates occurring during these transitions. It would be
impossible to predict the result of this. If on the other hand Scots preferred
to keep their mortgage in UK pounds, then voting to remain in the UK would be
the only sensible course of action. Currency union between the UK and Scotland
with one inside the EU and the other outside would be untenable. The mere fact that
Scotland would have to promise to join the EU would make such a union
inherently unstable even in the short term.
2. Free trade.
An independent Scotland would have to choose whether
or not to join the EU. No one knows whether the UK would at some point in the
future be able to negotiate a free trade deal with the EU. But if it did, this
deal would not apply to an independent Scotland. Nor would any other deal that
the UK was able to negotiate with anyone else, such as the USA. An independent
Scotland would have to negotiate its own deals both with the UK and with the
EU. The problem is that it could not automatically expect to have both. If Scotland
were in the EU, but the UK was completely outside, then there would have to be
tariffs between the UK and Scotland. Alternatively, if Scotland remained
completely outside the EU there would have to be tariffs between Scotland and
the EU. No one can predict with certainty what sort of deal Scotland would get
from either the EU or the UK. The UK could negotiate à la Barnier demanding
billions even to start talking about trade. It could demand “independence in
name only” just as in effect the EU demanded “Brexit in name only”. Who can
predict how negotiations between Scotland and the UK would end. The UK might
give the SNP everything they want, but then didn’t Brexiteers think that the EU
would give the UK everything we want. We have learned over the past few years
that negotiations don’t always go as we want them
to.
3. Power.
The Scottish Parliament will gain extensive new powers,
covering 153 areas, because of the UK leaving the EU. If the SNP were to argue
for EU membership, they would have to tell Scottish voters that independence
would mean giving up these powers. Why do you want the Scottish Parliament to
be less powerful? Alternatively, if they were to argue that Scotland would not
join the EU, they would have to explain why they were complaining about the UK
leaving the EU?
4. Border.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, then
it would have to agree to membership of Schengen. This would mean that there
would have to be passport free travel between Schengen members and Scotland.
This would mean that Scotland could not be part of the Common Travel Area that
at present covers the whole of the British Isles. The Republic of Ireland can
only remain a member of this area because it has an opt out from Schengen. Of
course, Scotland could hope for an opt out too, but that would be up to the EU.
For this reason and also because there is no way of knowing whether there would
be a free trade agreement between the UK and Scotland, there is no way of
knowing if there would be some sort of border checking between Scotland and
England.
5. Fishing.
If the UK leaves the EU completely then the UK will
regain control of our territorial waters. We will return to the situation that
existed prior to joining the European Community. This will mean that for the
first time in decades UK fishermen will no longer have to compete with the EU.
The likelihood is that fish stocks will improve, catches increase and fishing
communities will begin to do a great deal better. If the SNP wishes to join the
EU, then they will have to explain to these fishing towns that the situation
that they have wanted for so long is soon going to cease. Scottish independence
in the EU would mean giving up control of Scottish territorial waters.
6. Rights.
At present everyone in Scotland has the right to live
and work anywhere in the UK. We have the same rights to benefits, healthcare
etc as any other UK citizen. At present EU citizens also have most of these
rights too. But these rights are contingent on the UK being an EU member. There
will thus after Brexit be a distinction between EU citizens and UK citizens. We
may choose to give EU citizens certain rights post Brexit, but we could also
limit those rights. In principle a citizen of France could be treated no better
nor worse than a citizen of Japan. While the whole of the UK remained a part of
the EU the SNP could argue that Scots would retain the same rights in other
parts of the UK as we do at present. But with the UK outside the EU where is the
guarantee that these rights will continue indefinitely? In the end if you wish
to retain the rights of UK citizenship, you can’t vote to become a citizen of
another nation state. Of course, dual citizenship might be possible for a time
and a future UK Government might grant Scots all the rights we enjoy at
present, but it wouldn’t have to. It would all depend on how the divorce
negotiations went. Just as post Brexit UK citizens won’t automatically have the
right to live and work in the EU, so after independence Scots would have no
automatic right to live and work in the other parts of the UK.
7. Sovereignty.
If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, then
it would have to recognise that in many areas EU law would be supreme. At
present as a part of the UK the direction travel is towards devolution. The UK
Parliament has less and less control over matters that only affect Scotland.
The EU’s direction of travel on the other hand is towards greater and greater
integration. The move towards the EU becoming a sovereign nation state is
gradual but inexorable. The long-term success of the Euro will depend on the
sort of political union that enables the US dollar and UK pound to work. The
supremacy of EU law then at some point not far from now will amount to
sovereignty. An independent Scotland then would become a state rather like
Vermont or Texas. Under those circumstances it would no longer be able to leave
the EU. The European Union, just like the USA would become one nation
indivisible. The UK outside the EU on the other hand offers Scotland more
practical power over our own affairs. There are rules that make the Scottish
Parliament supreme over most devolved issues. This does not amount to full
sovereignty, but over the issues that concern most Scots on a day to day basis
it amounts to more power than we would have as an “independent” member of the
EU.
8. Arithmetic
The UK puts more into the EU than it takes out, while
Scotland gets more from the UK than it pays in. But if an independent Scotland
were to join the EU it would have to pay more in than it took out. Leaving the
UK to join the EU therefore has the double consequence of Scotland losing what
we gain from the UK while at the same time having to pay more into the EU pot
than we would be able to take out.
There is no membership fee required for the various
parts of the UK to trade with each other. This is truly free trade. It is one
reason why Scotland does most of its trade with the other parts of the UK. Why
would Scotland pay a membership fee to trade with EU countries with whom at
present it does a relatively small amount of trade, while having in addition to
pay a fee (tariffs) to trade with our greatest trade partner (the other parts of
the UK). Simple arithmetic suggests that Scotland is bound to lose from this
arrangement, not least because Scottish goods might have to pay a
fee to travel through England to reach the continent. How else, other than by
sea, would they get there?
The EU and the UK are now on different economic paths.
The UK may well become a low regulation, low tax, free trade haven off the
coast of Europe. If Scotland chooses the EU path, then the Scottish economy is
bound to diverge markedly from the UK economy. Would this divergence be
compensated by increased trade with the EU? If so why hasn’t this happened
already. After all the UK is still a member of the EU. If Scotland’s share of
trade with the EU were likely to grow, why didn’t this growth happen long ago?
9. Union.
Scotland faces a choice between remaining in the UK or
joining the EU. It could decide to leave both, which would be the only way for
it to become truly independent. But again the SNP can hardly demand
independence because Scotland is being forced to leave the EU if Scotland
doesn’t intend to become a member. I suspect also that being outside both the
EU and the UK would be a step too far for all but the hardcore Scottish
nationalist.
Most nation states have the following things in
common. Shared geography, such as an island or a peninsular. Shared language
and culture. While most Scots would feel immediately at home in any part of the
UK, few of us would be able to live and work easily in most European Union
countries. The reason for this is linguistic. Many European Union countries are
quite unknown to most of us. How many Scots can name more than one city in
Slovenia or in Slovakia. Yet the SNP want us to choose to leave a nation state
with which we are familiar (the UK) in order to join one with which for the
most part we are unfamiliar. The EU lacks the sense of shared history and
identity that is necessary for a nation state to function. Germans do not think
that Greeks are their compatriots. They
are too dissimilar. Most UK citizens can fit in easily wherever they live in
the UK and we are willing to subsidise the poorer parts of the UK without limit.
There is no need for bailouts for our profits and losses are held in common. It is this that makes the UK a nation state
that has endured for centuries, while the EU may not survive even the next Euro
crisis, because Germans won’t pay Greek debts. Why would Scots choose to leave
a union that works for a union that doesn’t work?
10. Democracy.
Each Scottish voter elects four representatives. One
goes to Holyrood, one goes to Westminster, one goes to Brussels and one runs
the local council. We have the same say as every other voter in the UK.
Scotland’s five million people can be outvoted, but so can Yorkshire’s five
million people. This would be the case in an independent Scotland too.
Aberdeenshire would always be outvoted by Strathclyde. This is not a fault in
democracy. It’s a feature. But who decides how Britain, Scotland and the local
council are run? The people we elect. The UK Government is wholly made up of
MPs who were directly elected. So too is the Scottish Parliament made up of
such people. The local council too. But who runs the EU? Is the EU run by the
people that we elect to the European Parliament? Do they form a Government that
decides all the important matters? No. Every important decision in the EU is
made by people who have been appointed. No one elected Barnier, or Juncker. Ursula
Von der Leyen may become the next President of the European Commission and
Christine Lagarde the President of the European Central Bank, not because
Europeans voted for them but because of a behind closed doors stich up between
France and Germany. Why would the SNP want Scotland to leave a fully functional
democracy (the UK) where each Scot has the same democratic rights and power to
influence events as every other UK citizen, in order to join what is an
oligarchy with a democratic façade.
Scottish nationalists are liable to respond to these points
with their usual mixture of fury and insult, but unless they can come up with
convincing answers to how an independent Scotland would cope with the realities
of Brexit, then they are liable to find that they have lost the argument and
with it any chance of achieving Scottish independence.
