It may be that we have been living in politically
momentous times in the UK, but I have found them dull. Yet another vote in
Parliament on Brexit, but can I be bothered to find out who won. A brand-new
party wins a national election and sets in motion the possible destruction of
the Conservative Party, but does it matter. If so, do I care who leads it?
I have found that there is nothing to write and so I
have not written. There is only one question in UK politics and too much has
been written about it already. We need action not words.
If Britain can completely leave the EU then there will
be the chance to debate other things, but until that happens we are stuck with
stupendous events that are sterile.
All that is left for the moment is to explain the
logic of the situation and try to get to the essence.
1. The Conservatives need to be led by a Brexiteer.
Jeremy Hunt voted to Remain, therefore they need Boris. All the rest of the
debate is uninteresting. Going down the Remainer who is now an enthusiastic
Brexiteer route has been tried already. We’ve “been through this movie before.”
2. There is no point debating what a future Prime
Minister will or will not do when these wonderful new things depend entirely on
the Conservative Party surviving in Government, which depends entirely on that
Government delivering a complete break from the EU.
3. The only interesting issue of the moment then is how a
new PM can credibly explain to the EU that we are certainly going to leave on
October 31st come what may. So long as Parliament undermines the UK’s
negotiating position by taking “No deal” of the table, there is no chance
whatsoever of reaching a mutually beneficial agreement with the EU. This of
course is the whole point. The Remainers in Parliament are not so much trying
to stop “No deal”. They are really trying to stop Brexit entirely. So, given
the numbers in Parliament how does the new PM force through a “No deal” Brexit
if necessary? We have all learned the word “prorogue”, but is it possible, is
it legal, will it work?
4. If it becomes necessary for the Conservative Party to
fight a General Election in the near future, either to get majority to force
through “No deal” or to continue in Government after “No deal”, how can they
possibly win? Millions of disillusioned Brexiteers have moved to the Brexit
Party. Would enough of them come back if finally, the Conservatives were about
to deliver a complete, clean Brexit? If not, there are two solutions. Offer
Farage and friends a pact whereby his party gets a free run in those northern
seats where the Conservatives have little chance of victory. Alternatively
offer Farage and fifty other Brexit party candidates safe Conservative seats
and some cabinet posts. Brexiteers have been divided from the start. It’s time
to unite.
5. The SNP as usual are angry. Apparently a “No deal”
Brexit would threaten the Union. Nicola Sturgeon doesn’t want Boris to be PM.
Always do what your opponent least wants. The SNP are desperate for the UK to
remain in the EU or alternatively for us to have Brexit in name only. The
reason for this is that a complete break with the EU makes the SNP’s dream of
independence much, much harder to achieve. A “No deal” Brexit would make some
SNP supporters very angry indeed. But even if we stayed in the EU they would
find something else to be angry about. In my view the condition for the
possibility of Scotland remaining in the UK long term is that the UK leaves the
EU. Otherwise at some point there is liable to be a second or a third
referendum on independence and at some point, the SNP will win. No country can
long endure with separatists allowed at any point to break it up. So, either
take the supposed democratic right to secession off the table like Spain, or
make secession so difficult that no one sensible would try it.
6. If the UK can completely leave the EU, then in order
to become an independent nation state, Scotland face a horrible dilemma. Do we
join the EU or do we not? If we join the EU, which apparently is the reason we
seek independence, then we would be in a different trading bloc to our most
important trade partner (the UK). Moreover, while the UK economy would be no
longer a part of the EU’s Single Market, the Scottish economy would be regulated
by Brussels. The present close alignment which Scotland presently enjoys with
the other parts of the UK could not continue. If on the other hand the SNP
chose for an independent Scotland to be outside the EU, then Scotland would
face the prospect of doing free trade deals both with the UK and with the EU.
Anyone who has witnessed the difficulty that the UK has faced trying to
negotiate a deal with the EU will not look forward to these twin tasks with
much optimism. Why shouldn’t both the UK and the EU present Scotland with a
bill of billions just to begin talking?
7. We have learned that apparently invisible borders such
as the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic are actually more
problematic than the SNP led us to believe back in 2014. It’s all very well
when, for example, Austria and Germany are both in the EU that they have a
seamless border, but the border between the EU and the non-EU has turned out to
be a serious issue. If Scotland were in the EU while the UK was not, then the
border between Berwick and Gretna would be similar to the one between Northern
Ireland and the Republic. The situation for Scotland would in fact be rather
worse as a condition for joining the EU now is that a member state agrees to be
part of Schengen. The Republic has an opt out.
It may be that with good will a solution to the border problem in
Ireland can be found. Perhaps technology can do the job, but no one can now
pretend that Scottish independence would have no border ramifications. If
Scotland had different trade agreements to the UK or had different immigration
policies, then some sort of border checks with regard to trade or migration
would be inevitable.
8. In my view Northern Ireland is simply part of the
UK. No foreign power has any more claim
on it than any other part of any other European country. The borders of Europe
are a result of accident, war and treaty. The fact that parts of Poland used to
be German gives Germany no legitimate claim them, just as the fact that Crimea
used to be part of Russia gives Russia no legitimate claim. It doesn’t matter
if the people of Crimea want to Russian or even if they vote 100% to be part of
Russia, it is still legally part of Ukraine. This is how sovereignty works. The
UK however wished to have peace in Northern Ireland and made the Belfast
Agreement with the Republic of Ireland. If the people of Northern Ireland vote
to join the Republic, then it is up to them on the sole condition that the
citizens of the Republic agree.
9. At present the Irish Taoiseach looks to be using the
border issue to try to bring about a united Ireland. This has always been the
goal of the Republic. It hasn’t gone away you know. The UK could respond in different ways. We
could attempt to change the demographic situation by encouraging more British
citizens to move to Northern Ireland. Every British citizen after all has a
right to live anywhere in the UK. Tax breaks could be given, jobs created. We
could use education to unify the people of Northern Ireland and sever the link
between religion and politics. But in the end, it has to be admitted that if
the majority of Northern Irish people prefer to live in a united Ireland then
the existence of the Belfast Agreement means that we can’t stop them. But what
we can do is to make clear to the Taoiseach and the Dáil that if you want
Northern Ireland you will have to pay for it and if there is any trouble you
will have to deal with it. It will be your problem not ours.
10. We either live in a democracy or we don’t. If the UK
does not properly leave the EU, why would anyone trust the result of any
referendum in the UK ever again? What would prevent Parliament stopping
Scotland from becoming independent even if the SNP eventually won a vote for
independence? The danger is not so much that failure to leave the EU will
destroy the Conservative Party, it will, it is that it will destroy all
political parties, because it will destroy any sense that voting, or indeed
writing about politics has a point.
