It may be that we have reached a stage in Scotland where
the whole debate about Scottish independence has gone beyond reason. Some
people want independence come what may, just because they want it. There is a limit
to the power of argument. People support political positions and then find
reasons to justify them, not the other way round. But Scottish nationalism
faces a greater challenge that most historical independence movements. It
not only lacks the overwhelming majority that has usually been necessary for
the emergence of new sovereign nation states, it lacks a majority at all.
It is for this reason that Scottish nationalists still
need to try to persuade that relatively small percentage of the Scottish public
who are undecided on independence or at least open to changing their minds. But this leads to a
certain tension within Scottish nationalism, which the Brexit debate has made
still more visible.
Who in Scotland is most likely to want Brexit? I
strongly suspect more SNP supporters want Brexit than supporters of any other
party. Scottish Conservatives are still relatively few in number and a good
number are Remainers. Hard Left old-fashioned Labour supporters might think
that the EU is a capitalist conspiracy designed to undermine the workers, but
these people have been declining since their 70s peak. Liberal Democrats who
support Brexit no doubt exist, but must be about as rare as Tories in the Labour
Party.
Why do a significant number of SNP supporters want
Brexit? Some do so because they think that it makes a second independence referendum
more likely. They also hope that the anger some Scots feel about leaving the EU will
mean they change their minds about independence. For this reason, an SNP Europhile
might cynically support Brexit as a means to an end.
But a significant number of SNP supporters want Brexit
because they see it as the condition for the possibility of Scotland becoming genuinely
independent. The arguments for Brexit with regard to the UK’s relationship with
the EU are, after all, similar to the arguments for Scotland being independent from
the UK. They are sovereignty arguments.
The contradiction at the heart of official SNP policy
of being opposed to rule by Westminster, but happy to be ruled by Brussels is
obvious. If you so love being in a Union of European countries, why are you
unhappy being in a Union of British ones? Scottish independence supporters may argue
that the EU is a looser union than the UK and that Scotland could still be an
independent sovereign nation state in the EU, but this doesn’t look like a good
long-term bet. Ever closer union is liable to turn independence very quickly
into independence in name only.
It is therefore reasonable for some SNP supporters to
see Brexit as a stepping stone to genuine Scottish independence. The problem
they face is the SNP’s official Europhile viewpoint exists for a reason.
The SNP offered the softest possible version of
independence in 2014. They put forward a view that independence would be so close
to remaining in the UK that we would hardly notice the difference. The argument
went, so to speak, that Scotland would be Austria, while the other parts of the UK
would be Germany. Crossing the border would be seamless. The currency would be
the same. The EU rules and regulations would mean trade went on as normal and
we could all live and work where we pleased.
But here is where Brexit makes the difference. If
Germany were to leave the EU, then this would profoundly affect their fellow
German speakers in Austria. Likewise, for Scotland, if the UK leaves the EU
completely, then the idea that Scotland can have soft independence becomes
untenable.
This is the dilemma for independence supporters. In
order to win the argument they need the softest possible independence, but this
depends not only on Scotland remaining in the EU, it depends on the UK
remaining too. The problem for the SNP however is that they have no way of
controlling how the other parts of the UK vote on Brexit.
It may be that a clean Brexit turns a certain number
of Scottish Liberal Democrats and Labour supporters into independence supporters.
Opinion polls may show a surge in support for the SNP, but they will still have
to win the argument and if the UK completely separates from the EU that argument
will be much, much harder to win. Hardcore independence supporters will be
happy with hard independence both outside the EU and outside the UK, but Europhile Scots would have to recognise that if Scotland were in the EU while
the UK was out, Scottish independence would be harder still. There could be no pretence that life would go on in more or less the same way. The break with the other parts of the UK would wide and deep. This would be a hard independence and a very clean break.
Even after nearly one hundred years of independence
the Irish economy is so intertwined with the UK that a clean Brexit will have severe
consequences for trade between the UK and the Republic of Ireland, what would
it do to an independent Scotland?