There is an interesting scenario that Scottish
nationalists haven’t thought about. Let’s imagine sometime in the future there
is a referendum on Scottish independence and the Leave side wins. There would
then be negotiations between the United Kingdom and the representatives of the
soon to be independent Scotland. The negotiations would be about how Scotland
was going to leave the UK. What if the UK decided to negotiate in exactly the
same way as the EU has been doing in the past two years since Leave won the
vote in 2016?
At present Scotland is part of the UK Single Market
and we don’t charge tariffs between the various parts of the UK since we are
all part of the same sovereign nation state called the United Kingdom. But
Scotland would cease to be part of the UK and so there would need to be a trade
agreement. The case would be analogous to the one the UK finds itself in relation
to the EU at present.
The Scottish negotiators would, no doubt, want free
trade to continue between Scotland and the UK. What if the UK said you will
have to pay a leaving fee? As well as paying your share of the UK’s national
debt, we intend to charge you a one off fee, let’s call it £10 Billion, plus an
annual subscription off say £2 Billion so that you can have continued access to
the UK’s Single Market. Failure to agree to this price would mean that the UK
wouldn’t even begin negotiations.
Failure to pay the fee and the subscription would
mean that Scotland would have to rely on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms.
This would mean that the UK would charge tariffs at the border between England
and Scotland.
Moreover if you fail to pay your debts, fail to pay
the fee and fail to pay your subscription we will charge a toll for every
Scottish vehicle driving through England and we will make it as difficult as
possible for Scottish planes to land in the UK.
Furthermore if you don’t pay up we won’t help you in
any way whatsoever in setting up your new independent Scotland. You won’t be
able to use the Inland Revenue to raise revenue in Scotland, nor will we help
with health, welfare or security. Our embassies will be closed to you and in
fact we won’t even throw you a life belt if we see you sinking, not unless you
first pay the ransom. Let's call it the £ of flesh.
Now in order to continue to trade freely with the UK
it won’t be enough for you merely to pay us. The UK also will demand that
Scottish law is subordinate to UK law. Although you will have no representation
at Westminster, you must apply our rules with regard to trading standards,
agriculture, fisheries food and anything else we care to regulate. You must
allow our ships to fish in your waters.
You must continue to give our citizens the same
rights as they have at present to live and work in Scotland, but we’re not sure
yet if we want to reciprocate. If you are very good we might do that, we’ll let
you know later.
We intend to do everything possible to make Scottish
independence a failure. We are going to make an example of you so as to
discourage the Welsh from having any similar ideas. We think your voters were
stupid to have dared to vote to leave and we intend to show them the error of
their ways.
Perhaps in a few years you will crawl back on your
knees begging for mercy. Please let us back, please.
Imagine after two years of such negotiations the
Scottish leader, said yes we give in to all of your demands. We submit. All we
care about is trade. We will pay the £10 Billion and accept whatever rules you
tell us to follow.
How would people in Scotland react to this finding
that instead of independence they were still ruled from Westminster but without
any representation? My guess is there would be riots and revolution. I would
join them.
We voted to Leave the EU. We didn’t vote to be half
in and half out. There are benefits to being in the EU and there are benefits
in leaving, but there are no benefits at all failing to do what the British
public told you to do.
In order to leave the EU properly we are going to
have to seriously promise the EU that we intend to leave without a deal. Our
self-respect as a front rank power and the fifth largest economy in the world
demands this. We should do this even if there are short term costs. There are
always short terms costs to doing the right thing. It would be worth it. We
must do whatever it takes. It would be worth a recession, it would be worth a
dip in trade. Nothing that would happen would be anything like the problems we
faced in 1914 or 1939. This is a battle that is worth fighting and winning. The
alternative is muddle, fudge and mediocrity.
