We are in very odd political times in Britain. It’s something
very difficult to write about in advance because the story is so fast moving
that no-one can predict what will happen tomorrow, next week, let alone next
year. Theresa May’s White Paper on Brexit could I think change everything about
British politics, but on the other hand it might have no effect at all.
I never dreamt that leaving the EU could turn out to
be so complex or so difficult. It’s now got to the stage where I don’t think
anyone quite understands what’s going on, not even those responsible for
writing the White Paper. Theresa May and
friends tell us that she has fulfilled all her promises and delivered the
Brexit that the electorate voted for. But there are very few Brexiteers who
believe her.
The Brexit that Theresa May’s Government is going to
give us could hardly be softer. It could hardly resemble being in the EU more.
But it is in fact considerably worse than remaining in the EU.
When I was weighing up whether to vote to Remain or
Leave I was fully conscious that there were aspects of EU membership that were
advantageous for Britain. They are
these:
1. Our citizens can live and work anywhere in the EU
and have essentially the same rights as the citizens of the countries where
they choose to live.
2. We can influence the course the EU takes by the
fact that we are represented in the EU Parliament, the European Commission and
that at EU meetings we have a voice and sometimes a veto.
I think that being part of the EU’s Custom’s Union
and Single Market are both advantageous and disadvantageous. These make it
considerably easier for us to trade with other EU members, but make it
considerably harder to do so with anyone else. The EU has free trade between
member states so long as you pay a membership fee, but the price of this “free”
trade is not merely the membership fee, it is also that you have to impose the
Common External Tariff on goods and services from all non-EU members who don’t
have a trade deal with the EU, i.e. most
of the rest of the world. It means
furthermore that you cannot make a free trade deal with anyone else because
only the EU as a whole can make such a deal.
Theresa May’s White Paper would see Britain
technically leave the EU’s Single Market and Custom’s Union, but remain in
spirit. We would mimic them. How much we would be able to diverge is a matter
of opinion. But it wouldn’t really be up to Britain to determine this. The
Irish Government, for example, would be able to complain that a UK trade policy
might have a detrimental effect on the border between Northern Ireland and the
Republic. Who is going to decide between Ireland and Britain? Well it’s
becoming fairly obvious, that it will be the EU. Whose side do you suppose they
will take?
If Britain were to try to strike a trade deal with
another country that enabled us, for instance, to buy cheaper butter than
Ireland can produce who do you suppose would immediately be on the phone to
Brussels to complain? The dispute might be difficult. It might have to be
solved in an international court. Where do we suppose such a court would be and
who would run it? The Irish tail will always be able to wag the British dog by
complaining that we are not mimicking the Single Market and Customs Union
enough to keep the border open. The judge will be the EU’s Court. Guess whose
side they will take.
So Theresa May’s Brexit would mean that we would
lose the advantages of EU membership, but would have nothing to show for it. We
won’t be able to trade freely with anyone else and EU laws and an EU court will
continue to tell us what to do.
It looks likely that EU citizens will be allowed to
live and work in the UK more or less without limit after Brexit. Personally I
have no problem with this whatsoever. Legal migration from the EU is a benefit
of membership. EU citizens for the most part work hard, integrate well and in a
generation their children will be indistinguishable from Brits. Given our
demographic situation and aging population we ought to continue to make it easy
for Europeans to live and work in the UK. But are we going to get the same
rights in return?
Nothing thus far has been said about the rights of
British citizens to continue living in the EU post Brexit. We have guaranteed
the rights of EU citizens living here, but have got nothing in return. Likewise
while EU citizens will be continue to be allowed to live and work in the UK after
Brexit almost without limit, the EU is arguing that British citizens will be
charged for visas. It is entirely unclear after leaving the EU that we will
have any more right to live and work in the EU than people from Haiti or Iran.
In essence then we will have given up all of the
benefits of EU membership for nothing. We will have no representation, no influence
and no veto. Our citizens will have few if any rights in the EU, but EU
citizens will continue to have the same rights that they do at present in the
UK. The EU will be able to determine whether we sufficiently mimic the Single
Market and the Customs Union so as to keep the border in Ireland open and they
will always be able to use this to control our laws and our trade policies to
fit in with theirs.
Anything that Britain might choose to do in the
future will have to pass the test that it doesn’t make the Irish Government
upset about the border in Ireland. Anything that might force either us or them
to monitor cross border trade will see them going to the EU to complain about
those naughty Brits and we will have to back down. In effect Ireland will become
the feudal overlord and the UK will have to pay tribute. How do you suppose
this will effect UK Irish relations? Be careful Ireland. We are going to be
neighbours no matter what. Do you really want to make the relationship more poisonous
than it has ever been?
What is to be done?
Do we get behind a truly terrible deal with the hope
that later we might be able to get something better? This is the route that is
being taken by people like Michael Gove and other Brexiteer members of the
Cabinet who haven’t resigned. But could
the deal really be improved later? I am becoming ever more doubtful. We would
face the same need to negotiate with the EU. What would stop them making the
same arguments? Moreover who knows what treaties might be signed by Theresa
May. I am open to persuasion about the getting out gradually argument, but I
fear Brexit in Name Only would be our fate for the foreseeable future. If we
can’t get out now, why suppose that we can get out in the future? Is the EU
really a prison, from which it is impossible to escape? If that is the case, we
need to put all our energies into battering down the walls rather than trying
to negotiate with the guards.
We could admit to the British people that Brexit has
failed. We could cancel our attempt to leave. This would be honest and would be
infinitely preferable to Theresa May’s fake Brexit, which amounts to leaving in
name only. We could then follow the example of Hungary and Poland and fight the
EU from within. If we didn’t like something that the EU told us to do, we could
simply fail to do it. What are they going to do? But our judges and our
establishment are not Poles, so continuing in the EU would mean continuing to
do our EU masters bidding. But at least we would keep some of the advantages.
The price however of telling the British people that 17.4 million votes have
been ignored is impossible to calculate. I cannot begin to imagine what might
happen next. When an electorate is ignored it is morally justified in seizing
power in whichever manner it chooses. Fortunately in Britain we don’t do
revolution.
The only course that I think protects our pride and
our democracy is to decide that it is impossible to come to a mutually
beneficial deal with the EU, but to leave anyway and trade with them on WTO
terms. We should inform the Republic of Ireland that there is an international
border between Dublin and Belfast and that we will monitor it as little as
possible, but as much as necessary so as to enable our country to leave the EU.
They could then decide what they want to do in response. They could decide that
they wanted to encourage a renewal of bombing or else they could try to come to
an arrangement that fitted the reality that we have left and they have remained.
We could then live as friendly neighbours or not as the case may be.
The problem we have given the Parliamentary
arithmetic is getting to the stage of being able to walk away from the EU. What
are the best tactics? Is it possible to replace Theresa May with someone who
really believes in Brexit? On the other hand what happens if May’s vision of
Brexit in Name Only doesn’t have a Commons Majority or depends on opposition
votes to get through? Who can guess what will happen? I cannot think of a
precedent for times like these.
I think if Britain seriously threatened to leave
without a deal, the EU would very quickly offer us a free trade deal, but I
might be wrong. We might have to accept the worst that they can throw at us. These
people want to punish us for trying, for daring to escape.
But that’s OK.
We have been through worse to protect our freedom
and our sovereignty, we should be ready once more to do what is necessary. We
have the Bank of England. It could print money and issue debt without limit. We
could spend extravagantly on necessary infrastructure so as to prop up the
economy. We could use the £38 Billion we are due to give to the EU to subsidise
our exporters and compensate them for any losses due to tariffs. If foreign
courts complain we could either do this covertly or explain that we are now a
sovereign power and will do as we please. We could unilaterally lower all
tariffs, business rates and offer free trade to anyone who wants it. There
might be some short term difficulties, but no worse than 2008, certainly no
worse than 1914 or 1939. Let us put our country on a war footing. Let us have a
Government of national unity dedicated to protecting British interests. Let
there be no room for those who would surrender to foreign powers. This is not
1940.
We weathered that storm, we can weather this. It
would be worth it. This is the answer to all scare stories about leaving the
EU. Whatever it takes to regain our freedom and our sovereignty will be small
in comparison to the price our grandfathers paid willingly.
Let’s just get out. That’s it. There’s nothing else.
