How do we respond to the latest threat from the SNP
to break up our country? We must respond in a variety of ways. One of them is
humour. The gorillas are on the loose again beating their chests and drinking
epic amounts of Ribena. This naturally makes them a little hyperactive. We must
laugh at the little gorilla that keeps crying wolf. We have always laughed at
such people. And yet we also always take seriously threats to our country and
act accordingly. Too few people in the Scotland and especially in other parts
of the UK recognise what the SNP are trying to do. It may be a little
paradoxical, but truth lies in the combination of opposites. At the same time
as we laugh we must also stiffen our resolve and be prepared to counter all
threats. This is the British way. This has always been how we see off such
people.
It is vital to learn from mistakes, both those that
were made recently and those that were made long ago. Britain made a long term
strategic error in 1916 that is still with us today. It didn’t happen on the
Somme, which, by the way, was neither pointless nor a defeat. Rather our error occurred
a little earlier. In response to rebellion in Ireland we executed the rebels.
We were quite justified in doing so. They were traitors. Any country has the
right to fight rebellion especially during war time. The people who decided to
use 1916 as the moment to stab Britain in the back when we were struggling
desperately to liberate both France and Belgium were cowards and opportunists. I
would not wish that my country had such founding fathers. But it was our error
that made them such. They might now be forgotten if we had put them in prison
for a few years and the incident might be a detail in history known only to
specialists.
Nothing in history or indeed in the future is
inevitable. There need not have been a First World War. The conditions that
gave rise to it were already easing and by 1916 the world might have been safe.
It was contingent and all the causes you learned about at school might have had
a different outcome.
The British response to rebellion in Ireland was a
long term strategic error. It is quite easy to imagine a scenario where Ireland
remained a part of the UK. If I could go back in history, I would only have to
change a couple of things to make that so. But it wasn’t only Britain that made
an error. By rebelling in 1916 the Irish put themselves on a historical path
that one hundred years later is not turning out so well. They divided their
island. They had fifty years of poverty. One hundred years of continued
emigration including my family. They had thirty years and more of terrorism.
Worst of all perhaps, after one hundred years the English speaking people in
the Republic of Ireland are going to end up in a different trading bloc to the
English speaking people of the UK. Long term this is going to harm the Republic
of Ireland. Choosing the Euro and the EU and people who don’t speak your
language and who in the end are neither your friends nor your family looks like
a long term strategic error which began in 1916 in Dublin. The Republic of
Ireland strove to avoid precisely this fate when it joined the EU only at the
same time as the UK did. But there is no use complaining about a potentially
hard border and damage to trade between the UK and Ireland. When countries
choose to have an international relationship they inevitably lose the benefits
of being part of the same country. This didn’t have to happen. This is what you
chose.
But it is crucial to remember that the loss of Ireland
in the 1920s was not existential. We were the United Kingdom of Great Britain
and Ireland. We remained a United Kingdom. What we lost was merely something
following the word “and”. People who have read my work know that I have always
supported the right of the British people in Northern Ireland to remain a part
of the UK. I hope that they do so forever. But if history had turned out
differently and Ireland had not been partitioned this too would not have been
an existential loss for the UK. It would still have been something after the
word “and”.
We in Britain care about our fellow Brits wherever
they are from. We will forever defend Northern Ireland, Gibraltar and the
Falklands. No sensible country wishes to lose territory. But when I see the
leader of Gibraltar siding with Nicola Sturgeon I think it is worth reminding
him that we would still be the UK even if Gibraltar once more became a part of
Spain. The loss would no doubt be painful, but it would not be existential.
What is the UK? In essence it is the sovereign
independent nation state that is situated on the island containing England,
Scotland and Wales. To lose any part of this is to lose the UK. This would be
an existential loss. Far too few people in the UK are aware that Scottish
independence means the loss of our country and the loss of our flag. There
could no longer be a UK without Scotland, just as there could no longer be a UK
without England. We stand and fall together.
Algeria until 1962 was a part of France. But the
loss of Algeria did not entail the loss of anything essential to France. There
are still some faraway places that are treated as parts of France. But the loss
of Saint Pierre and Miquelon (some islands near Newfoundland) would I imagine
barely be noticed in France. Losing Burgundy or Brittany would be something
else again.
No French person would contemplate giving up any
part of French territory without a fight. It is therefore pure folly that some
English people appear to welcome the loss of Scotland. What would you even call
your country? You couldn’t keep calling it the Rest of the UK (rUK) because there
wouldn’t any longer be a UK. Would you call it England, Wales and Northern
Ireland? It doesn’t exactly slip off the tongue. What then? Who would take this
rump seriously? What would happen to international confidence in the economy of
such a place that doesn’t even have a proper name? Who would view its armed
forces as being worthy of consideration. If you think Brexit will be a shock, try
Scottish independence. Every citizen of the UK would lose his country. The flag
that we have fought under for centuries would be no more. How could there be
any blue in it? Wishing good riddance to Scotland is wishing good riddance to
yourself. Scotland is just as much a part of what you are as it is a part of
what I am.
We have always been willing to defend our country
against existential threats. Why are we unwilling now? Even if we had lost in
1940, it may have been possible in time that the UK would have won in the end.
After all France came through the years of occupation and remained France. But
if Scotland ever became independent, the UK would be “no more than a dream
remembered” something to be found only in books.
We must recognise the SNP for what they are. They
want to destroy the UK. Don’t cooperate with them. Far too many political
parties in the UK appear willing to work with the SNP. There is talk of
progressive pacts. Let’s be absolutely clear. There is nothing progressive
about trying to destroy our country. The SNP have one aim and one aim only.
Only fools work with them. Nobody who cares about the UK should vote for such
fools.
How should we react to SNP threats? The crucial
thing is that we must do all that we can to nullify them. For this reason I
believe Scottish politicians like Ruth Davidson have made a long term strategic
mistake. After the EU referendum she argued that the UK Prime Minster should
not block a second Scottish independence referendum. I understand why she is doing this. She doesn’t want
to inflame the situation. She doesn’t want Britain to make the error that we
made in 1916. She thinks that if Theresa May blocked an SNP request for a
referendum this would increase support for independence in Scotland. All of
these things are legitimate concerns. Nevertheless Ruth Davidson is mistaken.
Nicola Sturgeon was delighted by her intervention. I have a lot of time for the Tory leader in Scotland, but she must remember above all the maxim "Always do what your opponent least wants".
Never tell your opponent anything. Why help them? It seems to me
that Theresa May is doing well. She always argues that the issue of Scottish independence
has been settled. She correctly points out that the SNP do not have a mandate,
nor indeed do they have a majority. She reminds them that just over two years
have passed since the last independence referendum. She is right not to refuse. Why refuse
when you haven’t even been asked? But it is vital Pro UK Scots make absolutely
clear that we think in the end Theresa May ought to refuse a second independence
referendum so soon after the last one.
Strategically I think David Cameron made a major
error in allowing a referendum on Scottish independence. He should have said to
the Scottish nationalists, the UK is one nation and it is indivisible. In this
he would have received the support of the whole world. This is exactly the line
that United States would take with regard to secession. It is the line that is
taken by every country in the European Union. What is the point of fighting off existential
threats to your country throughout its long history if you can be defeated by
separatists? Which of our historical enemies would we give a vote? Would we
allow Napoleon to vote on whether he could conquer Britain?
There is no universal right to secession. It is
perfectly democratic for nation states all over the world to prevent citizens
who wish to conspire in the destruction of their country from doing so. If
blocking separatists is undemocratic, then Spain is undemocratic and so is the
USA. If the SNP think they do have a right to secede, let them test it in the
court of international opinion. How many members of the Security Council would side with secessionists? Russia has fought a war against secession, so has France,
so has China and the USA. Why on Earth out of all the countries in the world
does Britain alone allow these people to threaten us?
I am heartily sick of the continued threats from the
SNP. Must we live our whole life continually in a state of anxiety about our
country? What if the SNP had a second referendum, would that settle anything? No of course not. If they won, that would be it. We would never get a second
chance. But if they lost within days they would want another go. Anyone who
thinks that a second referendum would kill off the SNP is mistaken. What if
they got the same result as last time? Do you really think they wouldn’t want still another chance? Anyone who thinks we would win easily is also mistaken. No-one can
predict what would happen. Politics is very strange at the moment. Moreover in
Scotland we are getting to the stage where we are beyond rational argument.
Another campaign would just inflame passions still further. The SNP only have a
fundamentalist argument. They want independence come what may. How am I
supposed to argue against this? I might as well debate with creationists.
Scottish independence would destroy the country of
65 million people. Why should 5 million have the permanent right to do this
whenever they choose? The concept of something being reserved means that there
is the right to say “No”. There is a good reason why constitutional matters are
reserved and that is what we voted for when we got the Scottish Parliament. The
whole country voted on leaving the EU. But we can only make a success of Brexit
if the whole country remains intact. We face a time of challenge when we must
negotiate the future of all of us so that we get the best deal possible. Why
should the SNP be allowed to continually interfere and make life difficult for
the UK? Why should they be able to undermine the choice of millions of UK citizens just because they disagree with it? This is not democratic. A Scottish vote is worth no more than any other person's vote in the UK. Why should Scots think we have a right of veto?
The SNP would put Scotland at a long term
disadvantage. They would partition Britain and put themselves in a different
trading bloc to the other English speaking people on our island. There is no
rational case for doing so other than identity politics, ancient history and a dislike of our larger neighbour. Theresa May must be careful. It is crucial
that we do not repeat the mistakes of the past. She must say to Nicola
Sturgeon. I’m sorry Nicola but you will have to wait. When we have a new Prime
Minister after Mrs May departs, he or she must likewise tell the Scottish
nationalists that while there may be an other independence referendum some day in the mean time they should "wait in Edinburgh, and wait...and wait...and wait."
