The result of the election promises to be both strange
and familiar, because it has already happened here and recently. The solution to
the democratic problem will be the same because it has already happened here
and still more recently.
In 2015 the SNP won all but three of the seats in the General
Election in Scotland and this dominance has continued in every General Election
since then up to now. The opposition could not compete with an SNP that was
winning around 45% of the vote because it was divided almost equally. The
Conservatives and Lib Dems are strong in certain parts of Scotland but could
not broaden their support beyond that. Labour too could not return to its
previously dominant position in the Central Belt.
It looked as if Pro UK Scottish parties would never be
able to beat the SNP, because each had similar levels of support and it was
politically impossible for them to merge to form one united Pro UK party. Any
sort of merger or even formal pact with the Conservatives would be toxic in
Scotland and would help the SNP by enabling it to say that Labour and the Lib
Dems were collaborating with the wicked Tories.
Pro UK people tried to change the situation by means
of tactical voting, but in each of the elections from 2015 to 2019 this did not
achieve the result of the defeating the SNP. It worked in some seats, but not
enough to defeat the SNP.
What is different this time is that one of the Pro UK
parties has because of Sturgeon’s resignation and the chaos that followed been
able to reach parity in terms of share of the vote with the SNP. Once that was
achieved it became obvious to every Pro UK voter that Labour in Scotland was
the means to defeat the SNP. The case for tactically voting has become enhanced,
because it has become more obvious that voting Conservative or Lib Dem in
Labour’s target seats is pointless.
This was the solution to a divided opposition. The
task was not to merge the Pro UK parties it was for one of them to become
dominant.
The UK situation is likely to be analogous to what happened
in Scotland in 2015 and the years following.
Labour may win around 40% of the vote and win nearly
all of the seats. The Conservatives may win around 20% of the seats, with Reform
winning around 20% too with the Lib Dems rather less. But all together they may
win not much more than 100 seats with Reform winning hardly any.
This has happened before of course. It is in the
nature of First Past the Post to produce landslides. But the result of the
present election is likely to be more lopsided than usual. The official opposition
may have less than 60 seats, the government may have more than 500 seats. Even
when Blair and Thatcher won landslides the opposition was still significant.
The Lib Dems are always going to plod along gaining
between 20 and 50 seats because when Labour is a social democratic party there
is no reason to vote Lib Dem as the two parties agree on almost everything. A
Lib Dem opposition would not be an opposition at all.
The right as represented by the Conservatives and
Reform may achieve together around 40% of the vote and could surpass Labour’s share
while still winning only 50-60 seats.
This is a dangerous moment for the right, but also for
Labour. If it misinterprets an enormous majority as a sign that it can do
anything or that it need not govern for the majority that did not vote Labour,
then Labour could equally go the way of the Conservatives after it won a majority
of 80 in 2019.
I am not concerned about the idea that Labour will be
in power for decades as it need not be so. Just as the Conservatives could lose
a majority in 5 years so can Labour.
The right has to choose one or other of Reform or the
Conservatives or else merge. The danger is that it wastes election after
election just as the Pro UK parties did in Scotland before the public decides
which is to be dominant. If this happens then Labour will keep winning just as
the SNP did.
There are advantages in ditching the Conservative brand
because its history makes it unelectable in parts of the country especially in
Scotland. Reform are not Tories because it does not have the history that the
Conservative Party has. The Conservative Party has the advantage of a long
track record of electoral success, but also a track record of managing decline
and an unwillingness to be a properly free market party that decisively rejects
social democracy.
If the Conservative Party elects a one nation Tory wet
to lead it after the election, then it will be clear that it is incapable of learning.
Capitalism works, social democracy largely does not. The message to the Conservatives
is be a proper right wing alternative to Labour and the Lib Dems or else perish
and deserve to perish.
If Reform wishes to take over from the Conservatives,
it will need to be both radical and sensible. It will need to resist extreme
solutions and to remain within the mainstream traditions of Thatcherism. A genuinely
right-wing party arguing that it will do what it takes to reduce migration to
100,000 per year while promising to cut taxes and the size of the state, could
defeat Labour at the next election no matter how big Labour’s majority. This
message was popular and election winning in the 1980s. It can be again.
I am not worried about the scale of Labour’s victory.
It will be a price worth paying to defeat the SNP and securing the unity of our
country. It won’t be a dictatorship,
because we will have the chance to kick out Labour too in 5 years.
But let’s take it one step at a time. If you are a Pro
UK person living in Scotland first do what you can to kick out the SNP, then
reflect on the overall vote and what that means for the future. One thing is
clear. The previous two-party system is dead and something else must emerge.
In a democracy when the results so radically do not
reflect the results of the voters leaving one party on 50 seats and the other
on 500 you can be quite certain that radical change will follow. It will have
to.
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