The likely result of the next General Election in
Scotland is that the SNP will lose around 20 seats to Labour and a few to the
Conservatives and the Lib Dems. If that happens the SNP might still just be the
largest party in Scotland on around 25 seats, but it will no longer be the
dominant force.
Alex Salmond has come back on the scene with a plan to
unite the independence voters who are divided between the SNP, the Scottish
Greens and Alba. But the mistake in this argument is that there is nothing to
unite. Alba and the Scottish Greens only make sense in the context of Scottish
Parliament elections with its combination of constituency and list seats.
There is a certain logic to independence supporters
voting SNP in the constituency, but Scottish Greens or Alba in the list, but even
that logic only works if the SNP maximises its constituency vote. But neither Alba
nor the Scottish Greens are close to winning a Scottish constituency in a
General Election. Independence supporters know that as well as everyone else,
so what is the point of Alex Salmond’s pact?
If you want independence vote SNP. Lots of people on
both sides of the argument vote for a party that has no chance of winning a
seat. Why shouldn’t they? Some people will vote Alba or Scottish Greens, or
Labour or Conservatives where they know their candidate has no chance of
winning, others will vote tactically.
Alex Salmond’s pact is the same as a Pro UK pact. It
would not gain that side of the argument but would instead cost it.
There is likely to be a swing to Labour in Scotland
where former Labour voters who have been voting for the SNP for the past decade
come back to Labour. They will do so for many reasons, but foremost will be
their desire to have a UK Labour Government and their disillusionment with the SNP
due to its failure to come close to achieving independence, its descent into
scandal and their lack of enthusiasm for Humza Yousaf.
What is the one thing that could stop SNP voters
coming back to Labour? It would be any sort of pact between Labour and the
Conservatives. By all means vote tactically, but best to do it quietly lest you
frighten the SNP horses.
But a similar argument applies to the Alex Salmond
pact. The SNP is likely to do badly at the next General Election, how could it
do worse? Well, it could form a pact with Alba and the Scottish Greens.
Alba is a party of ex SNP malcontents/fundamentalists.
The Alex Salmond who led the SNP was a far more impressive politician and far
more sensible too. It is as if he has regressed to his youth when he is
rumoured to have flirted with various forms of Scottish nationalist radicalism.
There is also the issue that he was frankly very lucky
indeed to have been acquitted when ten women witnesses accused him of various
forms of sexual assault. If he were an American, he’d be in prison for life
with Harvey Weinstein as his cell mate.
His show on Russia Today looks even more dubious now
with Russia committing war crimes in Ukraine than it did at the time. It astonishes
me that Salmond is treated by the media as a respected elder statesman.
If the SNP had any sense, it would ditch its present
arrangement with the Scottish Greens and have nothing to do with any electoral
pacts. The worst and least popular aspects of Scottish Government rule are a
direct result of the Greens. These include attempting to allow transgender
people to obtain Gender Recognition Certificates almost immediately and without
any medical checks. The logical outcome of this is male bodies in women’s
prisons and males taking part in women’s sport. Both of these horrified
ordinary Scots.
Lorna Slater’s Deposit Return scheme may cost the
Scottish Government millions in compensation to retailers who bought expensive
equipment that will now not be used.
Few Scots want the hassle of paying 20 pence for every
bottle and can and then having to queue to get it back. Likewise, few Scottish
women want a changing room, a prison or any other women’s space to be available
to people with male bodies. The Scottish Greens are not vote winners, they are
vote losers.
There no longer needs to be an independence supporting
majority at Holyrood, because there will not be a vote on this issue. Why have
a coalition that damages you when you don’t need to?
The SNP still has one main electoral advantage. Scottish
independence is still popular as a policy. Indeed, it is more popular than the
SNP. I think a lot of the popularity of independence in polling is due to
unrealistic expectations about what independence would involve. This is partly
due to the story the SNP has told about independence since it became a serious
possibility in the years leading up to 2014. There’s only the upside there is
never any downside as if it were merely a question of voting to get your pot of
gold at the end of the rainbow.
But the same can be said for people who vote for
socialism. There is never any downside. Everyone gets a universal basic income,
and no one has to work. But who delivers your Amazon parcel? Who nurses you in
hospital or cleans the wards? I wouldn’t do any of these things if I was paid
to do nothing.
Even soforms of socialism and Scottish nationalism remain
popular and parties that put forward popular policies have a chance of winning.
But to rebuild the SNP has to ditch its past. Whatever
happens during the present police investigation whether charges are ever brought,
or it all ends in a whimper, the SNP must distance itself as much as possible
from Nicola Sturgeon and Peter Murrell.
Humza Yousaf ought not to be sending flowers, nor
should he be making support for Nicola Sturgeon a test of loyalty. Sturgeon is
finished politically for exactly the same reason Alex Salmond is finished
politically. They are both toxic. Maybe that’s not fair, but that is how it is.
The police question as suspects only people they have a reasonable suspicion of
committing a crime. People are sent to trial only if there is thought to be
sufficient evidence to convict them. Of course, you are innocent until proven
guilty and innocent if acquitted, but that still leaves the toxic smell.
The SNP under Nicola Sturgeon failed to achieve its
goal of independence. It never came close. Electoral decline at the next General
Election and Scottish Parliament election, will push that goal further away.
But so long as Scottish independence remains popular, the SNP will remain a
threat because it is the only party in Scotland that can deliver on
independence.
Humza Yousaf however will be unable to change the SNP
sufficiently to reverse its decline. What is needed is a centre right SNP, which
rejects EU membership after independence in favour of the closest and most friendly
relationship possible with the former UK. If Scotland and the former UK could
form a trade, economic, military and cooperation alliance then they might be
able to separate amicably.
But for that to happen Scotland would have to cease
depending on UK money, which first involves admitting that it does. It would
then have to lower public spending and introduce the business-friendly policies
that might attract people to living here.
But this is the SNP’s problem. It has to attract both
nationalists and socialists and perversely it is both of these that prevent
Scotland being able to realistically achieve independence because they are both
unrealistic about their hopes. If the SNP ditched socialism, which is its only
realistic chance of making Scotland ready for independence, central belt Scots
would ditch the SNP and rediscover their tribal relationship with Labour.
