Something very odd is happening to the UK. Those parts
that are most gripped by nationalism are shrinking, while the part they wish to
be independent from is growing. Humza Yousaf wants his part of the cake all to
himself, but its as if someone already took a bite out of it.
I was very dimly aware that there was a boundary
review going on. There had been attempts to change Westminster constituencies
for some time, but it had previously come to nothing. However, the next General
Election will see England gain ten seats, Scotland lose two, Wales lose eight
and Northern Ireland stays the same. Scotland might have lost more except that
Orkney and Shetland and the Western Isles are protected even if their number of
voters is way lower than the average constituency.
The reason for these changes is demography. While the
UK population has grown enormously in the past one hundred years almost all of
this growth has been in England. While England’s population has grown by fifteen
million since 1951, the population of the other parts of the UK has barely
grown at all.
Scotland’s population in 1951 was 5,095,969 while it
is now approximately 5,466,000. The population of Wales in 1951 was 2,596,850
while now it is approximately 3,107,500 and
has hardly grown at all since the last census. Northern Ireland had a population
of 1,370,921 in 1951 and now has a population of around 1,903,175.
So, while England has grown by millions the other
parts of the UK have grown by a few hundred thousand and the rate of growth is
tiny, compared to the rate of growth in England being enormous.
The population in the UK is not growing because of birth-rate.
The number of children born for each woman has declined from 2.69 in 1961 to 1.56
today which is below the replacement rate. People are living longer, but that
on its own won’t increase population. The increase in UK population is almost
entirely due to migration. But it is migration almost exclusively to England.
In 1951 99.9% of the UK population was white. But while
that has changed everywhere Scotland remains around 95% while, Wales 94%, Northern
Ireland 96.8% white, while England is 81% white.
So, the reason that Scotland and Wales are losing constituencies
must primarily be attributed to the lack of ethnic minorities in Scotland and
Wales compared to England. But its not only ethnic minorities who prefer
England, it’s also EU citizens, Americans, Australians and everyone else. But
why should this be?
I think there are a number of reasons why migrants are
attracted to England. The first of these is London and the Southeast. London is
an international city, which is much more prosperous than anywhere else in the
UK. People migrate there for the same reason they migrate to New York rather
than North Dakota.
But its not just the southern part of England that
attracts migrants. People migrate to the north and midlands because they perceive
that there are greater opportunities there than in Scotland and Wales. Northern
Ireland I think is a special case because for decades the Troubles put off anyone
migrating there.
Perhaps most importantly of all there are established
communities of many linguistic and ethnic groups in England. These people will
provide networks of help for newcomers, while in much of Scotland and Wales
there would only be white English/Scots speakers who could not provide the same
degree of help.
It is for this reason that migration increases in
England particularly to London, where migrants know there will be a readymade
community waiting for them.
The geography of England plays a part too. Much of
England is flat and fertile, while much of both Scotland and Wales is mountainous
and infertile. Hampshire can sustain a greater population than the Highlands
because of the nature of the land. But also because of the nature of the land
much of England is densely populated while much of Scotland and Wales is
sparsely populated.
The rates of population density are extraordinary. While
Scotland has only 70 people per square km and Wales (153), Northern Ireland (137),
England has a population density of 434 per square km. This makes England one
of the most densely populated parts of Europe and Scotland one of the least
densely populated.
But density of population brings with it economic
benefits. Any small business in England will have numerous customers nearby, while
a small business in the Highlands might have to travel far to reach its nearest
customer.
Both Wales and Scotland have progressive self-images,
but it is hard not to view both Welsh and Scottish nationalism as a function of
the demographics of these countries. Do they wish to separate from multi-ethnic
England precisely because it is so multi-ethnic and precisely because so many
ethnic minorities choose to live in England.
Both Welsh and Scottish nationalism are overwhelmingly
white in terms of their politicians and their voters. This remains the case
even since Humza Yousaf became leader of the SNP. He strikes me as a being a
Scottish nationalist because of the racism he experienced in school. It makes
him wish to be more Scottish than the Scots. His speech always strikes me as
exaggeratedly Scottish rather than naturally so.
There is an element too of the reasons why Mr Yousaf
got into politics in the first place as a response to 9/11 and his being asked about
it in the context of being a Muslim. Mr Yousaf is hostile to Britain like all
Scottish nationalists, but his hostility has a different origin. It’s neither
because of the UK’s relationship with Ireland (a motivation for many in the West
of Scotland), nor perceived historical wrongs perpetuated against Scotland by
England. Rather I think Mr Yousaf resents the UK’s involvement in wars in
Islamic countries and would delight in seeing it broken up.
But these are not the motivations of most Scottish
nationalists, who base their desire for independence and Scottishness on
historical connections with pre 1707 Scotland and the distant medieval past
when Scotland fought against England.
So too I think Welsh nationalism is grounded in an
historical resentment of England based on England conquering Wales in the
Middle Ages and anglicising Wales to the extent that Welsh became a minority language
that required revival.
But the historical contexts of both Welsh and Scottish
nationalism are much less likely to appeal to people who lack any personal
connection with the historical events which Welsh and Scottish nationalists
resent. If I come to live in Cardiff from Japan, I may be Welsh I may even
learn to speak Welsh, but I am likely to view Owain Glyndŵr as abstractly as most
residents of Cardiff view Oda Nobunaga if they have heard of him at all.
So too if my family came from Poland why would I be
interested in the Battle of Bannockburn, when my fellow Scots are uninterested
in the Battle of Grunwald (1410) and most likely have never heard of it?
The problem for both Scottish and Welsh nationalism is
that just as you cannot change the island on which we all live, you cannot
change the fact that you have a neighbour with an enormous multi-ethnic
population, which has grown by what amounts to three Scotlands since 1951.
The greatest source of both the population of Wales
and Scotland is people born in England. Around 20% of the population of Wales
is from England while around 8% of the population of Scotland was born in England.
This is much more than the population from the EU and the rest of the world combined.
It is here perhaps that the demographic problem of
both Scotland and Wales is exacerbated by nationalism. The best chance both
Scotland and Wales have of increasing their populations is not by appealing to
people from Europe and beyond. These people for the most part don’t want to
live in Scotland and Wales anyway. They overwhelmingly choose to live in
England when given the choice. Rather the best chance is to appeal to our
fellow citizens living in England. They already make up the largest non-Welsh
and non-Scottish group in both these places, but they are the most likely group
to be put off by Scottish and Welsh nationalism, not merely because they might
justly perceive it to be hostile to English people, but because they cannot meaningfully
share in a nationalism that is contrary to their own birth. Who wants to become
a foreigner in one’s own home?
To suppose otherwise is to suppose that I could move
to Sapporo and lead the Hokkaido National Party. But this would be considered
preposterous in Japan as well as grotesquely rude to the Japanese people, even
though Hokkaido was annexed by Japan in the 19th century.
We are left then with a vision of Wales and Scotland
losing seats and prosperity because people prefer to live in England, wanting
to separate from the greatest source of their migration primarily due to their
hostility to English people choosing to live in Scotland and Wales, without which
the population of both would be still smaller.
The idea that separation would make Wales and Scotland
more prosperous looks quaint in the context of few people choosing to live in
Scotland and Wales at the moment due to their poverty, nationalism and hostility
to anything that is not Scottish or Welsh.
Meanwhile England prospers by actually being what Wales
and Scotland are not but pretend to be. Progressive and welcoming. No wonder
Wales and Scotland are shrinking.
