If there were a Scottish independence referendum
tomorrow who would win? I genuinely have no idea. I don’t think anyone does.
You might as well toss a coin. But let’s ask a different question. If you asked
1000 Scottish nationalists who would win an independence referendum, 999 or
more would answer that their side would win. If you asked 1000 Pro UK people
the same question there would be far less certainty and confidence. This is the
essence of our problem.
There are no Scottish nationalist writers who think
they will lose. Even when they were 25-30 points behind in the years leading up
to the referendum in 2014, I never came across a single SNP supporter or
commentator who was anything other than optimistic. Instead, they kept telling
me that independence was inevitable. Even when they lost in 2014, they
expressed no sense of pessimism. From that moment they kept telling me that
they would have another go and when they had their chance they would win.
I cannot see into other people’s minds. People can
express confidence and optimism when inside they are full of doubt, but I believe
that Scottish nationalists are genuine in their confidence. It is this that makes them formidable
opponents.
The Pro UK side was overly confident when it granted
Alex Salmond an independence referendum. David Cameron thought he would win
easily and gave Salmond everything he wanted. David Cameron thought he would
win the EU referendum easily too. We don’t
hear much from David Cameron anymore.
The Pro UK campaign won decisively in 2014, but not overwhelmingly.
It is a lot to lose by 10%, but it is not hopeless for the loser and so we all
simply continued the campaign. If the gap had been 20% the issue would have
been closed. Since then, the SNP with around 45% of the vote wins all the
seats, but 45% is not enough to win a referendum.
But even though the Pro UK argument tends to lead opinion
polls on independence our side has become ever more pessimistic. It only takes
the least little set back or Sturgeon being on TV every day for people like
Alex Massie to tell us that we are doomed. When things get better, he repents
and starts attacking the SNP, but the damage is done. Nationalist commentators
never write like this. Even if the goal is far away, they tell their supporters
that they are making steady progress towards it. So too we have “Pro UK” voices
telling us that if there were a referendum tomorrow then the SNP would win it.
Our opponents would never write this, because they know that it would damage
their argument.
Mr Tomkins is likable, able, knowledgeable and
intelligent. He has written some great Pro UK articles, but who does he think he
is helping with his prediction? It merely helps the SNP’s optimism and
increases the tendency towards Pro UK pessimism.
There won’t be an independence vote tomorrow, for
which reason it is easy to say which way you would vote, because there are no
consequences. It was the reality of the moment of choice in 2014 that gave us
the result we got. There was a huge turnout and lots of people who in theory
supported independence in practice voted No. Scottish nationalist confidence
did not actually stand up to the test of putting an X in a box.
We can’t know what the result of a hypothetical independence
referendum would be, because we have no idea when or if it might happen. Would
Sturgeon still be leading, if not who would be her replacement? What would the question
be? A Remain/Leave question gets a very different answer. What would be the circumstances
in the world? Would there be war, pandemic, economic crisis or some other event
we cannot predict now? What would be the state of the EU and the UK’s relationship
to it? Which party would be in Government at Westminster and who would be leading
it? All of these issues would play a part and more. So, predicting the result
is in all honesty like trying to predict who will win a match between Rangers
and Celtic ten years from now. It is neither intelligent nor wise to suppose
that you know the answer.
The reason the referendum was granted to the SNP is
that Cameron felt certain that he would win it. It is for this very reason that
the SNP will not get another go any time soon. The loss of Scotland is an
existential threat to the UK and the odds of it being lost in a referendum are about
50/50. No one is going to risk their country on a coin toss. If polls were once
more showing a Pro UK lead of 30% then a second referendum might happen, otherwise
the SNP will have to wait a generation and by that stage saying “No” might have
become a political tradition such as applies in most other countries which do
not allow referendums on secession.
The SNP’s best chance of a second referendum is that
the loss of Northern Ireland demoralises the British Government to the extent
that it prefers to kick out the Celtic fringes and become instead the English
Government. But polls show overwhelming support in Northern Ireland for staying
in the UK. Alternatively, if support for independence reached the 65-70% level along
with mass demonstrations Catalonia style plus civil disobedience then I think enough
English voters would decide that Scotland was not worth the trouble. But we are
nowhere near that. Polling on independence is about equal and demonstrations are
merely small bands of Jacobites in woad and fancy dress. One side leads for a while in
the polls then the other. So long as that remains the case the British
Government will be under no real pressure, because the SNP is elected by a
minority of the electorate and a minority does not win you independence.
The difference between victory and defeat in Ukraine
at the moment is morale. The average Russian solider doesn’t want to be there.
The average Ukrainian is defending the country he loves. Morale isn’t enough
and armies historically have sometimes been overconfident. But morale is
crucial in any battle including a political one.
The Pro UK side has great arguments. The kind of
things that settle general elections are all in our favour. The economic
argument is decisive. Scotland initially at least would certainly be poorer if it
voted for independence. It would start life outside of the EU and having
destroyed the UK, it would be using someone else’s currency without permission
or else planning to create its own currency and then perhaps join the Euro. It
would face at least a regulatory border hindering trade with its greatest trade
partner. It would have to find a way to replace the money that at present it
receives from the British Treasury. There is no obvious replacement unless a
secret gold mine exists under Ben Nevis.
The UK has a better historical record than most and is
living up to that historical record in its aid to Ukraine. The world is very
uncertain, with new threats emerging do we really want to respond to these by
partitioning the island on which we live, dividing people whose only real difference
is an accent?
There is a great positive argument for the UK. We are
fortunate to live in a genuine democracy with a high standard of living and a
set of common values that are the same from the south of England to the north
of Scotland. We are willing to share our wealth with each other because we have
shared the same country for centuries.
We have all of the arguments that we need. What we
lack is the optimism to make them. Far too many nominally Pro UK commentators
spend too much time with Scottish nationalists. It’s as if they have gone up the
Congo and like Mr Kurtz have gone native. Mr Tomkins would be wise to wear his
pith helmet lest he catch too much sun.
While Scottish nationalists have kept their optimism
since 2014, they have lost their argument. It is much harder now for Scotland
to become independent than it was in 2014. If Scotland joined the EU while England
stayed out there would be a greater chasm between them than at any time since
the Middle Ages. Only Remainers cannot see that this is decisive for the argument.
The only thing that prevents long-term SNP defeat is Pro UK defeatism.
