The North East of England is the place that feels most
similar to Scotland. It is post-industrial like the Central Belt. The accent
and dialect are similar as is the culture. If by an accident of history, the
North East of England were part of Scotland no one would notice the border.
After all Berwick Rangers plays in the Scottish football league and “South” Berwick
was once as much a part of Scotland as North Berwick. But while voters in both
Hamilton and Hartlepool have deserted Labour it remains unimaginable that Hamilton
would vote Tory.
Both Hamilton and Hartlepool suffered during the 1980s
as the British economy moved away from heavy industries that were no longer
economic, but while this left a legacy of hatred of Tories in Scotland, the Northern
parts of England have moved on. While going on about Margaret Thatcher and the
Miners strike no longer wins votes for Labour in the Red Wall, in Scotland
these events are treated as if they were current affairs, which is not
surprising given that we are still refighting the Battle of Bannockburn.
Conservatives are able to win in Hartlepool because
voters there don’t much care about the 1980s and no longer vote tribally according
to how their parents voted. But Scotland still votes tribally it’s just the tribe’s
colours have moved from Red to Yellow. The SNP took over the Labour bloc vote
in Scotland en masse and took on the same grievance that used to make Scotland
vote Labour and we nurse that grievance to keep it warm.
Everyone else in Britain has forgotten about the poll
tax. You have to be in your fifties to have been asked to pay it. Thatcher is
fading into history like Wilson, Heath or Callaghan. But in Scotland somehow it
was much worse that we had to pay the poll tax a year earlier than the rest of
the UK and it matters more that our pits had to close than those in England and
Wales. The reason perhaps is the Scottish Parliament.
The root of the Scottish nationalism that makes
Hamilton vote SNP while Hartlepool votes Tory is the long years of Thatcher’s
reign when Scotland voted Labour but got a Tory Government in Westminster. It
was this grievance that motivated the Scottish establishment, but not the SNP,
to establish the Scottish Parliament that would continue to receive English
subsidy, but would forever be a coalition between the Lib Dems and Labour. It
was these parties too that organised tactical voting with the SNP in order to keep
the Conservatives out of Scotland. It was this above all that fuelled the
nationalist idea that it was unfair if Scotland did not get what it voted for,
but instead was outvoted by the English.
It is of course a feature of democracy that you can be
outvoted by others. Scottish nationalists would not consider it unfair if
Aberdeenshire was outvoted by the Central Belt. The only reason it is
considered unfair is if you already view Scotland as separate, indeed as an independent
country. It is after all not unfair if South Carolina votes for Trump, but gets
Biden.
The establishment of the Scottish Parliament to
address the grievance of Scotland voting differently to the UK fuelled Scottish
nationalism and ultimately destroyed Labour’s hold on Scotland. It left with it
a hatred of Tories that is the primary motivation of SNP voters. Nicola Sturgeon
speaks about Tories in a way that would be disgraceful if she was talking about
a nationality or a race, but of course she is because Tory has become
synonymous with posh people from England who go to Eton and that has been used
to disguise the similarity of the people of Hamilton and Hartlepool. Scottish nationalism
has made a distinction where there is no difference.
Scotland has no genuine grievance. There are parts of
the UK much worse off than we are. Tories are no longer posh. Many are working
class people who used to vote Labour just like we did. The only difference is
that voters in Hartlepool were not told that it was unfair that they voted
Labour, but got a Tory Government. For this reason, there is no nationalism in
Hartlepool. Hartlepool doesn’t want England to be independent nor Britain to
break up.
While the Conservative Party can smash through the Red
Wall in England, it cannot spread northwards beyond Berwick and Carlisle, until
the nationalism that was stoked in the 1980s by Scottish Labour and the Lib Dems
and the whole Scottish Establishment with them is put out. Never play the nationalist
card. It is the most powerful one in politics and it will destroy you if you
are not careful. It can make people vote to be poorer. It can make people vote
to put a hard border between Hartlepool and Hamilton.
If there is hope for Scottish Conservatism it lies in
being more like Boris Johnson. There is something in Johnson’s message that appeals
to former Labour voters in Hartlepool and it could equally appeal to former
Labour voters in Hamilton. Scottish Conservatives should be the party of
business arguing for policies that would bring Scotland prosperity rather than
dependence on the UK Treasury. They should cease nursing their grievance about
Brexit, which helps the SNP argument, and instead embrace its opportunities.
Rather than trying to be as different as possible to Johnson Scottish
Conservatives should emphasise continually the similarity between Hartlepool
and Hamilton. They should stand up to the media narrative that views Scotland as
separate and which still uses Tory as if it were a swear word. The last
acceptable prejudice in Scotland is hatred of Tories. Perhaps then Conservatives
might have a chance of defeating the SNP not merely in Hamilton, but also in
those parts of Scotland were historically Conservative.
The only difference between Hartlepool and Hamilton is
nationalism. If you defeat nationalism, you defeat the SNP.
