I haven’t been writing much about the Scottish
Parliament election lately. This is for a number of reasons. I am not very
interested in election campaigning. I’m better at political argument. I have
minimal interest in the peculiarities of the electoral system where we have one
vote for the constituency and one vote for the list. It strikes me as overly
complex and potentially unfair. But it is the system we have until someone
changes it. I follow polling like everyone else, but I am more and more
convinced that there is something fake about it, even something corrupt. I
don’t follow the day-to-day events at Holyrood and frankly could not care less what
MSPs do there. So long as there is not another independence referendum in the
next few years it is a matter of complete indifference to me how well or how
badly the SNP rule with the help of the Scottish Greens and perhaps Alba.
For the same reason I don’t care very much how many Conservatives, Labour or Liberal Democrat MSPs there are. If there are enough to deprive the SNP of a majority that would be great. Still better if there was not an independence supporting majority. But otherwise, it will make very little difference to me if this or that Pro UK MSP is elected or not.
The odd thing about a Scottish Parliament election is
that in reality it is a giant poll on independence. This is the issue that all
of us vote on. It’s a bit like having a referendum except our Yes or No vote or
after Brexit more likely our Leave Remain vote goes through the mincer of
voting for various constituencies and lists. This churns out various MSPs. The
SNP can either rule on its own or must work with other parties. This does not
matter. What matters is how many voters
chose independence and how many rejected it.
Let’s say SNP, Greens and Alba win a majority even a
supermajority, but they only get 45% of the vote. It will be hard for them to
argue that Scottish voters want independence or that they want a referendum
now. If they ask the British Government for permission to hold one, the request
can be refused because they represent a minority, even if this minority elected
a majority of seats. Salmond’s supermajority in that circumstance will be merely
unrepresentative or rather a swindle.
What this means is that every Pro UK vote counts. Even
if we suspect that the SNP will win a majority and perhaps an overall majority
it is worth voting. It is worth putting your cross on a piece of paper even if
you live somewhere where a Pro UK party has no chance. We cannot influence the
electoral system, nor how many vote for nationalist parties, but we can
influence the Pro UK turnout. You may think that it is pointless voting as the
SNP will win anyway, but this is completely untrue. So long as there is a Pro
UK majority of votes, it will be very difficult indeed for the SNP to hold a
referendum and still less likely an illegal referendum. If we are the majority,
we could wreck it simply by ignoring it.
There has been a lot of debate about Pro UK strategy
and there has been some ill feeling too especially about list votes. I think
there are way too many Pro UK parties on the list.
As soon as Alba entered the race independence
supporters who had set up list only parties closed them down. Scottish
nationalists are much more organised and disciplined than we are. The word goes
out that this party is unhelpful and it shuts down. Meanwhile we have loads of
small parties all attracting a few hundred or a few thousand votes, none of
which will lead to any list seats. Put all of those votes together into one
list only party and we would have a far greater chance of succeeding.
It makes sense to have a list only party. It is for
this reason that I have supported All for Unity. I think that George Galloway
and Jamie Blackett would do a better job in Holyrood than most MSPs. All for
Unity has a more interesting manifesto than any of the others that I have read
and has candidates from all sides of the political spectrum who would bring
something new to Parliament. I believe these people deserve your support.
The alternative is the both votes strategy of Labour
the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives even when they know they have no
chance of winning a constituency and sometimes a small chance of winning on the
list. This strategy is bound to fail. This is why I opposed it. If your tactic
is to compete mainly for the list seats, you are bound to come second, which
may make you a considerate lover, but it won’t win a majority at Holyrood.
It is easier to win seats on the list if you don’t win
any constituencies, which is why a list only party makes sense, but it still
requires you to win about 6% of the vote. This is where each of us has to
reflect.
1. Will Labour Lib Dems or Conservatives win a
constituency in your region?
2. If so, vote for someone else on the list.
3. Will your party get 6% on the list?
4. If not vote for someone else on the list.
I voted Conservative in my constituency and All for
Unity on the list because I hope the Conservatives will win constituencies in
North East Scotland and also hope that All for Unity will get 6% of the vote. I
cannot predict the future about either hope, but it is an experiment worth
trying. I have been told that All for Unity have a good chance of winning
seats. Other people disagree. We will
see. All for Unity would have an even better chance if all of the tiny list
parties that have no chance of winning a seat ceased to exist. I would love to
abolish the Scottish Parliament, but Abolish the Scottish Parliament Party
would have a far better chance of achieving something if its votes went to All
for Unity.
Any votes for a list party that fails to reach 6% will
be wasted and could have helped other Pro UK parties to win a list seat. Let us
all reflect honestly about our chances and vote accordingly. The same goes for
constituencies. If your party can’t win, vote for a Pro UK party that can.
We will only know after the election how the various
strategies have worked out. But let’s not fall out about it. The battle against
Scottish nationalism is long term. We can only defeat it if Pro UK people who
support a variety of parties and strategies are willing to work together even
when we disagree.
Neither the Liberal Democrats, Labour or Conservatives
have the right to complain about All for Unity because they refused to work together
by standing down candidates where they had no chance of winning. This would have
given us the best chance of winning more constituencies. Tactical voting rarely
makes a difference because the main Pro UK parties neither endorse nor encourage
it. But even so the thing that we all can do that is likely to make the most
difference is to vote for the Pro Party with the best chance of winning the
constituency where you live. The SNP will rarely win a constituency with more
than 50% of the vote. If we all chose the party best placed to defeat them it
would make the biggest difference to the overall number of Pro UK seats.
This is particularly the case if you live in Dumbarton
where Jackie Baillie may need all our votes to keep her seat. You don’t have to
be a Labour supporter to realise that Ms. Baillie was one of the best MSPs. She
is solidly Pro UK and one of Sturgeon’s best opponents. So too anyone living in
Glasgow South should vote for Anas Sarwar as he could just possibly defeat
Nicola Sturgeon.
The most important thing of all is to vote. I hope all
Pro UK parties do well. Every single Pro UK vote adds to our share of the vote.
Every one of us should get out and vote and help a friend to get there too.
Our task is to continue to make the argument against
Scottish independence. Next, we must demonstrate
that we are still the majority. Fewer Scots want independence than a few months
ago. Scottish nationalists are divided and we are winning the argument. This is how to beat the SNP. Every Pro UK vote counts. The more we raise the Pro UK vote above fifty percent the more we win, just like in 2014.
