The problem with Scottish Conservatism is structural
rather than personal. Ruth Davidson is better suited to leadership than either
Douglas Ross or Jackson Carlaw. But this is because she is first rate
politician. It is not because her ideas are any different from theirs. They all
more or less agree about everything and the everything they agree upon is mistaken.
That is the problem.
There are two sorts of Conservative in Britain. There
are reformists and there are declinists. Thatcher is the ultimate reformist.
Heath, May and Major are declinists. Declinism is the view that the correct
response to loss of British power and influence after the Second World War was
to manage that decline, slow it down, do what the Americans tell us to do
because that keeps the relationship special and merge our lot with the European
Union, because we cannot manage on our own. Reformism is the view that we can change
Britain make it more united, more efficient and that our greatest days are
ahead of us rather than behind us.
The Scottish Conservative response to Margaret
Thatcher was declinist. Our best days are behind us. We will never win a
majority in Scotland again. We must apologise for what Thatcher did to Scotland
in the hope that we will be forgiven. We opposed devolution, but we were wrong.
Now we have the zeal of the converted and worship at the Holy Rood.
The Scottish Conservative response to the SNP is similarly
declinist. We must give the Scottish Parliament and the SNP ever more powers. We
can’t possibly say No if Nicola Sturgeon asks for indyref2 six years after
2014. We must praise Sturgeon as much as possible and agree with her. We must
appease rather than oppose. We must talk about separating the Scottish
Conservative Party from the party led by the horrible Brexiteer Boris Johnson,
because we think separating is the best way to defend the UK against separatism.
The whole problem with declinism is obvious. It leads
inevitably to decline. The end point of Conservative declinism was a United
States of Europe with Britain as a rather unwilling region. No wonder the BBC
didn’t want us to sing Britannia rules the waves, it didn’t want Britain to
rule anything not even ourselves.
The end point of Scottish Conservative declinism is
Scottish independence with Douglas Ross or his successor having a few seats in the
Scottish Parliament post separation.
Thatcher was a reformer because she could see the
problem with Britain, and she could see the solution and she had the courage to
do what was necessary even if it was unpopular.
The problem with Britain is that there are certain wrong
ideas that cannot be questioned. Thatcher saw that Britain was being held back
by trade unions, nationalised industries that made a loss, inefficiency and low
productivity. This was completely heretical. The declinists were horrified when
she set about solving the problem. It was wildly unpopular. But it gave rise to
the modern Britain that is no longer in decline.
Today we face similar sacred cows.
1. Leaving the EU is impossible and will be a disaster
economically.
2. There is a widespread problem of hunger in Britain
and it is necessary to give the poor free school meals.
3. Devolution was a success.
4. We dare not say No to separatism.
5. The NHS is the best in the world and must
constantly be saved.
These views are essentially the same as the view in
the 1970s that British Leyland is the best way to make cars and we must let the
Miners turn off the lights whenever they choose to do so.
Dominic Cummings was hated by the British declinist
establishment because he saw the problem in the same way that Thatcher did and
was willing to put forward solutions and to think the unthinkable.
The EU is making much of Europe poorer. It’s model of
protectionism both economic and social prevents its members from becoming more efficient
and profitable. It’s like British Leyland on steroids. If Britain can free
itself from EU regulations and restrictions and trade freely with whoever wants
to trade freely with us it is obvious that we will undercut the EU and do
better than they do. Theresa May who turned out to be the ultimate declinist
was determined that we should not be allowed to do precisely that. She was
cheered on by Ruth Davidson and Douglas Ross.
The problem with benefits in Britain is that they trap
the poor by giving them just enough that they feel constrained to remain on
benefits rather than find work. Increasing those benefits by giving benefits in
kind (food banks, free school meals) makes the problem worse rather than better.
Devolution this year has seen support for Scottish
independence and Welsh independence increase and real borders established for
the first time in hundreds of years. Yet the declinist establishment reacts in
horror when Boris tells the truth about it. The solution is to devolve power
equally everywhere in Britain and to bypass the devolved Parliaments by
bringing real power to the county level. But you have to first recognise that
there is a problem before you can find a solution. The declinists cannot even
do that.
At some point Britain has to learn the lesson that
every other country in the world learned that the only solution to separatism
is to make it illegal. It is the mere possibility of separatism that fuels it.
The declinists react with horror, but this is precisely because they are
declinists and wish to merely manage decline into Scottish and Welsh
independence. Oh God make us separate but not yet.
All of the problems that Britain faced post war were
made worse by Atlee’s Labour Government. They were made worse because everything
we have learned since all over the world tells us that socialism doesn’t work
and makes everyone including the poorest poorer.
Conservatives have successfully reformed most of what
Labour did wrong in the 1940s except one thing, the NHS. The NHS is run on socialist
lines and has socialism embedded in the way it delivers health care. Far from
being the best in the world it is in fact one of the worst. I know people from Poland
who are horrified by health care in Britain and go back to Poland if they get
sick.
At some point perhaps one hundred years from now a
reforming Conservative will dare to make the NHS both efficient and able to
deliver affordable healthcare to all British citizens. After that we will be
amazed that anyone was willing to accept our previous model of healthcare. But
that person will not be a Scottish Conservative.
There are large numbers of Scots who oppose the SNP,
dislike devolution, hope that Brexit will make Britain richer and more united
and are simply desperate for a Conservative politician to make arguments
against Nicola Sturgeon. We should indeed focus on the SNP’s domestic record, but
the task is to show what the SNP are doing wrong. The task is to persuade Scots
that there is an alternative and that alternative is Conservatism.
Scottish Conservatives are going to get nowhere if
they continue to be declinist. The task is not to be popular. The task is to be
right. This is the lesson that Thatcher learned. If you are right, popularity
follows because you are able to convince those who disagreed with you. This is
why the Scottish Conservative appeasement strategy won’t work. It is the
essence of declinism. The task instead is to have ideas that are right and to
use argument to persuade people who disagree with you. Conservative thinking
and free market economics make you richer. It does so just as much in Scotland
as anywhere else. But unfortunately, the Scottish Conservatives decline to make
this argument.
