There has been quite a lot of talk about various polls
taken in Scotland relating to support for the SNP and Scottish independence.
The most important thing to say is that both polls and polling organisations
have become thoroughly discredited lately and should be ignored. The
organisation that commissions a poll not infrequently gets the desired result
from the polling organisation because it tweaks the sample and the results to please those
that pay the bills. The whole thing has a whiff of corruption.
The Covid crisis has given Nicola Sturgeon a unique
opportunity to appear on TV screens nearly everyday with a carefully scripted
message and a compliant media feeding her questions for which she already
knows the answers. It is obvious when comparing the media in London and the
media in Edinburgh that the Scottish media is tame while the London media is
wild. Nothing approaching the grilling given to Dominic Cummings could ever
happen in Scotland.
Why does the Scottish media agree to a format that
emasculates them so that they become Sturgeon’s eunuchs? Scottish journalists could decide to stay away from Sturgeon’s press conferences as would the London
press corps if such emasculation was required. It is worse to have a
tame press than no press at all.
Panic and defeatism sets in with a certain sort of Pro
UK Scot whenever a poll suggests that support for independence might have risen
a few points. The Scottish nationalists don’t panic, and they are never
defeatist.
It is the fundamentals that matter not the polls. The
SNP argument is already bad. It has been made worse by Covid and it is about to
get still worse.
Sturgeon’s handling of the crisis from March to May was
broadly similar to the British Government’s. But since she decided to go it
alone with easing and ending lockdown it has created a long-term problem for
Scotland.
The British Government is balancing the need to save
lives with the need to open the economy as quickly and as fully as possible. This
is because lockdown while saving lives is also costing them. Funding the NHS costs
money.
Rishi Sunak’s furlough scheme is a British Government
policy administered partly by the devolved Governments. It will end for the
whole of Britain at the same time. Those parts of Britain that decided to not
follow the British Government timetable for easing lockdown will suffer the
consequences. If Sturgeon wants to continue to bail out Scottish businesses and
workers, she can raise taxes and cut spending in Scotland to pay the bill.
Who will get the blame for this? This being Scotland
of course England will get the blame. But it will still be the case that the
Scottish economy will be worse off in relation to the British economy because
of Sturgeon’s tardiness and ultra-caution. She may well gain short term support
from cautious Scots desperate to keep Covid away, but when the Scottish tourist
industry ceases to exist and jobs that were saved in England are lost in
Scotland because of our slowness, I wonder how long that support will continue.
If Scotland declines while England prospers in the months ahead, we will know
who to blame and it won’t be the English.
The Scottish media and opposition politicians are
beginning to talk up next years elections for the Scottish Parliament. We’re
doomed they say. The SNP are going to win a huge majority and then they will
demand an independence referendum or else they will unilaterally declare
independence. We couldn’t possibly say No. That would be undemocratic.
No one points out that subordinate state legislatures in Germany, USA or anywhere else for that matter cannot vote for independence nor can they declare it. To do so would be undemocratic, unconstitutional and illegal.
No one points out that subordinate state legislatures in Germany, USA or anywhere else for that matter cannot vote for independence nor can they declare it. To do so would be undemocratic, unconstitutional and illegal.
The legal basis on which we have a Scottish
Parliament at all The Scotland Act 1998 with its subsequent versions clearly
sets out what are devolved issues and what are reserved ones. Constitutional
matters, i.e. Scottish independence (and also incidentally quarantine) are reserved.
When a party has a manifesto for an election it cannot
logically have a policy on a matter that is outside its legal competence. The
SNP can no more have a manifesto commitment to independence for a Scottish
Parliament election than they can have a manifesto commitment on defence. It is
none of their business.
It is the equivalent of the British Government telling Sturgeon what to do about a devolved issue like health.
It is the equivalent of the British Government telling Sturgeon what to do about a devolved issue like health.
It was legitimate for the SNP to have a manifesto commitment
to independence in the 2019 General Election, but unfortunately, they lost. In
order to win a UK General Election, you need a majority of MPs in the House of
Commons. The SNP does not have such a majority. It matters not one little bit
who wins the most seats in Scotland because it is a UK election not a Scottish
election.
The Conservative Party did make a manifesto commitment
about Scottish independence during the 2019 election. It said that there would
be no second referendum and the matter was settled. The Conservatives won an eighty-seat
majority.
The SNP cannot overturn a manifesto commitment voted
on by the British electorate as a whole on an issue within the competence of
the British Government with an illegitimate manifesto commitment to a Scottish
Parliament that cannot legitimately decide the issue. That would be unconstitutional
and contrary to the Scotland Act.
The correct response to the SNP gaining a few percentage
points in the polls therefore is that it doesn’t matter if you win all the
seats in the Scottish Parliament, there still won’t be a legal independence referendum.
If you try to do anything illegal, we will respond appropriately.
I can already hear various veteran “Pro UK” Scottish
journalists saying we couldn’t possibly do that. Opposition politicians too will tut tut. That would enflame opinion in Scotland, blah,
give more power and money to Scotland, blah. They appease rather than oppose.
Scottish opposition politicians are of the view that while the SNP are allowed
to do anything to achieve their goal, we must do nothing to hinder them, but
rather we must cooperate and not even put up an argument. They do this not only
because they are cream faced loons, they do it because they share the
SNP’s assumptions about Scotland. They think of us as separate and are
therefore already halfway to separatism. They too are Strugeon's eunuchs.