The
UK is now definitely going to leave the EU. What does this mean for an independent
Scotland joining the EU?
1.
Political union.
Scotland
would have to promise to accept the aims of the EU. The EU aims to achieve
monetary, fiscal and political union. It might have been possible in 1973 to
pretend that the Common Market was only a trading group, but we all know better
now. The question for the SNP is why are you leaving one political union (the
UK) in order to join another (the EU). If you can’t bear to be in a political
union with people who speak English, how do you suppose you will be able to
bear being in such a union with people who don’t. If you dislike being ruled by
Westminster, why will you be happier being ruled by Brussels?
2.
Rebate
If
the UK intended to rejoin the EU, we would have to accept that we would have to
pay more for our membership. The UK would not receive, the rebate negotiated by
Margaret Thatcher, but neither for that matter would Scotland. Brexit will mean
that proportionally the membership fee that Scotland would have to pay would
also increase.
3.
Schengen
All
new EU member states must promise to join the Schengen zone. Ireland and the UK
received opt outs, but these are no longer available. The result for the UK
would have been that there were be no border checks between Calais and Dover.
Migrants in France and anywhere else in the EU could simply get on a train and
arrive in England without any checks whatsoever. When millions of refugees
marched into Germany, they could equally as easily have marched into Britain.
The problem for Scotland is that if Scotland were in Schengen while the former
UK was not, there would be nothing to stop anyone who got into Scotland from
simply walking across the border. For this reason, Scotland’s membership of
Schengen would most likely entail border controls between England and Scotland.
An independent Scotland could not be a
member of the Common Travel zone that currently exists between the UK and
Ireland.
4.
Euro.
Each
new EU member state must promise to join the Euro. It’s all very well saying
that we would break this promise, but if you don’t agree with the aims of the
EU why ask to join? In order to join the Euro, it is likely that Scotland would
have to have its own currency and central bank. Otherwise it could not cope
with the Euro convergence criteria and could not enter the Exchange Rate
Mechanism (which the UK so famously was kicked out of in 1992.)
5. Keeping
the Pound
Each
and every one of the present EU members had its own currency prior to joining
the EU. Using Sterling unilaterally after leaving the UK would make it
difficult for Scotland to fulfil the economic criteria which the EU requires
from candidate countries. For instance, Scotland would have no control over
interest rates or monetary policy, which would make it difficult for Scotland
to reduce its deficit to the level the EU require without introducing radical
cuts to public spending. It’s unclear anyway whether it would even
be possible for an EU country to use the currency of a non-EU country, because
it’s never been tried.
6.
Law.
Each
new EU member must follow the rule of law. No new EU member has seceded from a
member state while that country was a member state, but we know that the EU
sided with Spain after Catalonia tried to secede illegally. If
Scotland were to attempt to become independent by means of an illegal referendum,
it would bar itself from EU membership, because it had broken article two of
the Treaties of the European Union. It would not have followed the rule of law.
7.
Trade
As
the UK makes trade deals with other countries such as the USA and as we benefit
from importing goods no longer subject to the EU’s Common External Tariff, it
will be recognised that Scotland’s joining the EU would involve giving up these
trade deals. If Scottish businesses benefit from our new trading relationship
with the rest of the world, they will face the fact that joining the EU will
mean these deals ceasing. Those who hope for Scotland’s future EU
membership are reduced to hoping that UK trade goes badly, which amounts to hoping
that Scotland’s economy goes badly too.
8.
Powers
Both
the UK and Scotland will gain new powers as a result of Brexit. Areas such as
agriculture, fisheries, trade, and environment will controlled largely by the
devolved parliaments of the UK with some input from the UK Parliament to make
sure that there is harmony in the UK’s internal market. For Scotland to join
the EU we would need to give up control of our territorial waters. We would
need to cease controlling our own farms and environment. The Scottish
Parliament will as a result of Brexit gain new powers. The SNP will have to
explain to the Scottish people why it wants to make the Scottish Parliament
less powerful and why it wants to give up power in order to become
“independent”.
9.
Border
The
UK will be outside the EU’s Single Market and Custom’s Union. If Scotland were
to join the EU, the EU’s external border would be between England and Scotland.
The only way to prevent this giving rise to border checks would be if the
former UK agreed to rejoin the EU’s Single Market and Custom’s Union. This
obviously would not happen. It is inevitable therefore that border checks would
have to take place between Scotland and England. Not least because former UK
goods would be subject to the EU’s Common External Tariff and Scottish goods would
be subject to whatever tariffs the former UK chose to impose. These checks
might involve physical checks at the border, or they might be done remotely.
But we have learned from the “backstop” debate that the EU will insist that
checks are made somewhere.
10.
Divergence.
Brexit
is going to cause the UK to gradually diverge from the EU. The more this
happens the harder it will be for Scotland to join the EU, because we would be
required to converge that much more with EU rules and regulations. The further
the UK diverges from the EU, the greater the distance would be between an
independent Scotland and the former UK if Scotland were to join the EU.
Scotland trades far more with the other parts of the UK than with anyone else.
Independence would inevitably mean Scotland ceasing to be part of the UK’s
Internal market, but an independent Scotland in the EU would be in a different
trading bloc to its greatest trade partner and that trade partner would be
diverging from Scotland just as Scotland was diverging from the UK and instead
converging with the EU. It is preposterous to suppose that Scotland could
benefit economically from this arrangement, because the amount Scotland trades
with the EU is much less than we trade with the UK. It is the equivalent of
California supposing it would be better off if it left the USA.
The
obstacles to the UK rejoining the EU are such that it may as well be
discounted. But the obstacles to Scotland joining the EU are if anything even
greater. Not only would Scotland have to go through the upheaval of leaving the
UK, we would not be able to join the EU that we are in at present. We wouldn’t
be able to do this not merely because the UK would no longer be there, but just
as importantly because the rules for new members have changed since the UK
first became a member and require things that they did not require before.
The
condition for the possibility that Scotland could become independent was always
that the UK was a member of the EU. If that were the case, then Scottish
independence could occur with minimal disruption to the Scottish economy. But
Brexit changes the relationship between an independent Scotland and the former
UK so radically and involves such uncertainty and so many unresolved questions
that it would involve Scotland starting life both outside the UK and outside
the EU. The SNP might as well propose that we set sail in a sieve without
charts.
