I began writing about Scottish politics as soon as
it became clear that there was going to be a referendum on independence. This
issue mattered to me in a way no other issue in politics ever had. I began writing
even when the referendum was a long way off and when only a few of us were
really actively involved in campaigning. Most people I know only really thought
about the decision we were going to make when there were a couple of months to
go. But everyone in Scotland in the end was caught up in the event. Everyone
will always remember the tension. Many nationalists think of this time in a
positive way. For them the campaign had a joy that it lacked for me. Worse I
view Scotland now as before and after the Referendum. I don’t really recognise
the place and the people to me are often strangers. Although I was born near
Aberdeen, it no longer quite feels like home. I live and work here for the
present, but I begin to look for somewhere warm to escape to. I find Scotland
very frosty and not only in winter.
I don’t feel the same way at all about the EU
referendum. I expect in the end that we will vote to stay. If that happens,
life will continue more or less the same. It hardly seems something to get
worked up about. There is a chance however that we will vote to leave. It
depends partly on the campaign and partly on how things go in the EU over the
course of the next few months. Electorates all over the world are rejecting
established/establishment wisdom. I don’t think it likely that the UK will vote
to leave, but then again a year ago I would have said it was quite impossible
for Jeremy Corbyn to become Labour Party leader. But in the end, if we vote to
leave, life also will more or less go on the same.
There is a false dichotomy between the choices to
leave or remain. The UK will not gain independence by leaving the EU for the
simple reason that we already have it. It is the UK Parliament that has the
power to decide to hold a referendum. The UK Parliament is sovereign and
retains fully that sovereignty even if it chooses on the one hand to devolve to
the parts of the UK and accepts regulation from a supra-national body like the
EU. The likely result if we vote to leave will be something similar to
membership of EFTA (European Free Trade Association). This allows access to the
EU single market and maintains free movement of people and labour. Someone from
Iceland or Switzerland has the same rights to live and work in Germany as does
someone from the UK. There is just as much free trade between Iceland and Germany
as there is between the UK and Germany. Whatever happens this is not going to
change.
Whether we vote to leave or remain we will be a
semi-detached part of the EU. We are not going to join the Euro, nor are we
going to join Schengen. If the other EU countries, especially the Eurozone
countries, choose over the coming years to strengthen their political and
monetary union, we will not be a part of it. How or even whether this happens
is completely uncertain. It is equally possible that Schengen will cease and
that one more crisis will see the breakup of the Euro. But whether we choose to
be in or out we will simply observe these matters.
Many people seem to think that voting to leave will
enable the UK Government to cut immigration. Mr Cameron has apparently made
some sort of deal with regard to paying benefits to EU migrants. This is
completely wrongheaded. We should on the contrary pay Poles to come to the UK
and we should get down on our knees and thank God when any of them choose to
come here. We should moreover provide unlimited work visas to Russians,
Ukrainians and Belarusians. The UK has a demographic crisis. We are not
producing enough babies. The growth of our economy depends on importing labour.
One of the main benefits of the EU is it makes it easier for people to migrate. Moreover people moving around Europe is almost
completely benign. The descendants of Polish people, who stayed after World War
II, are indistinguishable from any other Brits. They speak like us, think like
us, act like us. They are us.
The crucial point however is that even if we left
the EU, Poles would still have the same right as at present to live and work in
the UK. The only way to stop this is to not even be a part of EFTA. But that
would mean giving up both free trade and free movement of people.
Unfortunately the issue of migration from within the
EU is frequently conflated with migration from outside the EU. The fact of the
matter is that we can already limit migration from outside the EU. Nothing is
preventing us. It is the UK Government that sets the rules with regard to
allowing people visas. The only constraint on how the UK Government can act is
that we have to comply with the European Convention on Human Rights. For this
reason the UK Government is sometimes unable to deport people it would like to
and has to allow some other people to live here who it would prefer did not. We
have been a signatory to this act since 1950, long before we joined what was
then the Common Market. The only European country that is not a signatory at
present is Belarus’. Leaving the EU might allow us to join Belarus’, but I
think this unlikely. The issue anyway is not the Human Rights Act, but how judges
in the UK use it to undermine the will of Parliament. It is the sovereignty of
Parliament that matters. The fact that 'we the people' can through elections
create laws and kick out governments that we dislike. But there is nothing I
believe that prevents us from doing this now. When Eurozone issues are debated
it is frequently mentioned that whatever happens has to fit in with Germany’s
Constitutional Court. Even if the UK remains in the EU it ought to be possible
for the UK’s Parliament to assert or reassert that it is sovereign. Of course,
this may be easier to do if we chose to leave the EU. The European Communities
Act 1972 plus subsequent case law has made EU law superior to British law. This is one of the very best reasons for leaving the EU. The UK electorate has very little control
over EU law. We cannot change it. This is simply undemocratic. But the UK Parliament is still sovereign. It chose to subordinate itself, it could choose to reassert itself. We
have the power to repeal or modify the 1972 Act. We would do so if we voted to leave the EU. But here's a question. Is it necessary to leave the EU to assert that Parliament is superior to EU law?
The idea that the UK would not be prosperous outside
the EU is ludicrous. I very much doubt that anyone would much notice the
difference. Japan is an island off the Asian coast. It doesn’t have to be in an
Asian political union in order to be 3rd largest economy in the world. Nor does
the UK have to be in the EU to be the 5th largest economy. We will continue to
trade with other Europeans no matter which way we vote.
There may be downsides to voting to leave the EU
however. The pound is liable to fall sharply on the currency markets. The stock
market may crash. The UK’s sovereign debt rating may be lowered. All of these
things would have real world consequences for all of us. They would however, be
short term. Business and markets do not like uncertainty and leaving the EU
would be a source of uncertainty. We just don’t quite know what sort of divorce
deal we would get. The other EU members would, no doubt, be rather angry at our
leaving. Some might plot a sort of revenge. Relations between our friends might become difficult for a while. But in the end the EU depends just as much on trade with the UK as
we do with them. A deal favourable to both sides would be done.
Would Scotland want another independence referendum
if the UK as a whole voted to leave the EU while Scotland didn't? It’s impossible to say.
Self-interest ought to cause the Scottish electorate to reject independence.
Nearly all of the SNP’s arguments for independence depend on the UK being in
the EU. Moreover it’s such a paltry issue to make such a fuss about. If the UK
gets an EFTA style free trade agreement, the difference to our lives would be
quite small. Does life in Norway really feel that much different to life in
Sweden?
I don’t think Scots will vote to make ourselves
massively poorer even if the UK voted to leave the EU. Who is to say we would
even get the chance. The SNP may vaguely mention another independence
referendum in their next manifesto, but all the while they are telling the
Scottish electorate that a vote for the SNP does not mean independence. They
can’t have it both ways. There may come a point where people might begin to
doubt that they even would have a mandate. The Scottish parliament is not sovereign. Mr
Cameron did not have to go to Brussels to ask permission to have a referendum. The
SNP may huff and puff, but they will still have to ask. Just as UK law at
present is subordinate to EU law, so whatever the SNP want is ultimately subordinate to
the decision of the UK Government. Would a future UK Prime Minster say to
Nicola Sturgeon “Sorry you haven’t had your generation yet”? It’s just one more
of our uncertainties.
It's always worth remembering however that electorates are not always rational. We cannot necessarily rely on the argument that independence will make you poorer. History is full of countries that could not care less if independence made them poorer, they wanted it anyway. If countries are willing to fight wars to gain independence, they might just be willing to accept a rather large fall in their standard of living. Indeed I've always been of the view that someone who really wants independence should not be deterred by the economics. Better together is the argument of a scoundrel. But the SNP will continue to want independence whether we vote to leave or remain. In that sense we should treat their views as the bit of the equation that drops out.
I’m not a great fan of the EU, but I’m not massively
opposed to it either. Call this mild Euroscepticism. I’ve sometimes in the past argued in favour and sometimes
against. I can see plusses and minuses. I can’t imagine that I will get overly
excited about the result either way. If we vote to leave, I might see this as
an opportunity. If we vote to stay I may very well view that result with
something like relief.
Everyone makes choices based on personal
circumstances. When I last left Scotland it was a grey, gloomy day in January.
There were floods. I was desperate to get away. A few hours later I was in the
Canaries. Everything was cheap. There was warmth. There was sun. I have an idea
that one day I might like to live there always. I probably could whether we vote to leave
the EU or we vote to remain. People from Iceland and Norway can. But I’m not certain about this. The same argument applies as it did during the Scottish independence referendum. There is something dishonourable in expecting to have all the privileges that go with membership of a club, if you choose to
leave.
