Each of us has made decisions in the past which have
had profound and sometimes unexpected consequences. The subjects we chose to
study at school or at university can have an influence on the job we end up
doing. The people we meet, the person we fall in love with all change how our
life turns out in ways that we cannot guess. When I fell in love it meant I had
to make a choice. I had to leave what had been familiar and move somewhere that
was unknown. I didn’t know how it would turn out. There were dangers that had
to be faced. But I knew that I had to go, simply because I loved. Moreover, I
knew that if I did not go I would regret it forever. I realised that there might be
tough times ahead, but I also knew that it would be worth it.
As a country the UK has often had to do things that
are difficult. We didn’t have to fight either in 1914 or in 1939. We could have
chosen to stay out of those wars. We were not immediately threatened with
attack. Instead we chose to do what we thought was right and what we thought
was in our national interest. We faced great danger and uncertainty, but were
willing to do so as we thought it was the right thing to do.
Whatever we choose to do this year with regard to
leaving or remaining in the EU there will be risk and uncertainty. But
focussing too much on plusses and minuses is liable to overly cloud the issue.
What matters most of all is our duty to ourselves and others. We should be
willing to go through some uncertainty and even some loss of wealth in order to
arrive at the position that we want. We should be willing to take some risk
too. After all every person who sets up a new business accepts that there is a
risk. But he considers that it would be worth it if he succeeds. Then he would
have his own business. He’d be working for himself. There would be no boss, but himself.
What matters fundamentally is that the UK at the
moment is not its own boss. Compare and contrast this with the United States. The
highest court in the US is the Supreme Court. The clue is in the name. The
judges who work there are all Americans and they are all appointed by
democratically elected US politicians. The United States would not accept a
foreign court telling it what to do. It would not accept that its own laws were
subordinate to the laws of another organisation. No other free country would
accept this. They wouldn’t accept it for the sake of mere trade.
On this everything hinges. If we vote to remain in
the EU we will be saying that we accept, probably forever, that our Parliament
will be overruled by people who we didn’t elect. We will also be saying that
from time to time what we want in the UK will be overruled by the majority of
other countries in the EU. We will have chosen this and that choice will
reverberate into the future. Who knows what the majority will choose? But we
will have to go along with it. On the other hand if we reassert that the UK parliament
is supreme, then fundamentally we will be saying that while we may agree with
our fellow Europeans, we also may disagree. This decision too will have long
lasting consequences. We do not know what decisions we will make in the future,
but we know that if we chose to leave they will be our decisions, made by
people we elect. Alternatively they won’t.
There will be a tricky couple of years if we vote to
leave. But in the end we will come out of it in no worse a position than
Australia, New Zealand or Japan. They
all are able to trade with the EU without being a member of it. It isn’t
necessary to be subordinate to the will of other countries in order to trade
freely with them. Free trade is a matter of mutual self-interest. Everyone
loses if barriers are erected.
The UK is perfectly capable of doing well
economically without being a part of the EU. Countries much less powerful
economically and much less successful than us exist quite happily without being
part of an organisation like the EU. Two thirds of the UK population dislike
the EU. I suspect the vast majority of Brits would prefer that we could go back
to something like the Common Market. But we don’t quite dare to grab this
chance, because we fear uncertainty. What happened folks? We’ve been through
tough times before without a murmur. I suspect that most of us agree that it
would be worth it if we could just trade freely with the EU but not be a part
of it. But we fear the extraction, like a child fears the dentist. A Common
Market exists for those European countries that don’t want to be in the EU.
Tiny Iceland with a population like that of Aberdeen is a member. With a little
pain, a little uncertainty we could be a part of it too. Do you want to be a
Brexiteer or do you prefer a rather meeker role?
Some people in Scotland are inclined to vote to
remain because they have been cowed by SNP threats to have another independence
referendum. Do they really suppose that the SNP will give up its desire for independence
if we vote to remain? Far from it, it just gives them a chance to wait until
they think they can win. This is the worst possible time for Scottish independence.
Moreover, the condition for the possibility of Scotland leaving the UK is that
the UK remains in the EU. It would be impossible for the SNP to argue that all
the nice things that we like about the UK would continue after independence, if
Scotland is in the EU and the UK is not. How could you have a currency union (a
shared pound) if one country’s laws are subordinate to Brussels while the other’s are not? How could you have an open border, if that border were the border into
the EU? How could Scotland’s financial services industry exist if it were in
the EU while its main market was out of the EU? How could Scotland survive
without being subsidised by the UK Treasury? The SNP have recently proved themselves desperate to retain the subsidy, desperate to remain dependent. The risk of Scotland leaving the
UK is far higher than the risk of the UK leaving the EU. A few brave hearts may
want to go for independence come what may. But the SNP will threaten and then
not act on their threat. This is perhaps our one chance in the near future to
weaken them.
The SNP is the main strategic threat to the
continued existence of the UK. Brexit lessens that threat and may nullify it
entirely. It may be the only thing that could do so. The other main dangers we face are another economic crisis and
uncontrolled migration into the EU. Both of these dangers have been caused by
the leadership of the EU. The problems with the Euro have not gone away they
are just sleeping. At some point unless and until the Eurozone allows money to
be transferred freely from the rich countries to poor countries there is
going to be another crisis. Greece may once more find that it cannot pay its
debts, but eventually so too might a larger country like Italy. This would be
bad for the UK whether we were in the EU or not. But so long as we remain in
the EU what is to stop Mrs Merkel and friends demanding that we in the UK help
bail out one of these countries that can’t pay its debts? Are we certain that
this could never happen? On the other hand if we leave the EU they would be no
more able to force us to share the burden than they can force Australia.
It is tragic to see millions of displaced, desperate
people. Unfortunately there are more than Europe can safely accept. How many
people in the world live in poverty or in countries that are oppressive? There
are more than the whole population of Europe many times over. We cannot let everyone
come. So we have to make a limit. We have to accept that even some deserving cases
will have to be prevented from coming. If we don’t do this, then not only will
the EU cease to exist, but so indeed will Europe.
How is the EU doing in managing the migration
crisis? Firstly it has been exacerbated massively by the decision of Mrs Merkel
to at first open Germany’s borders to allcomers and then try to close them. Secondly it has made
worse by the existence of the Schengen zone which allows border free travel
throughout most of the EU. Already, over a million people have reached the
Schengen zone. The EU predicts that another three million will arrive in the
next year or so. At what point will the EU demand that the UK takes its fair
share? There haven’t been many demands up until now because we are having a
debate about leaving the EU. But if we vote to remain, how long will it be
before Mrs Merkel tells Mr Cameron that it’s time to repay his debt. After all, she was most accommodating in helping him to “renegotiate” the terms of
the UK’s membership. On the other hand
if we vote for Brexit we would have absolute control over our own borders. The
EU could no more tell us who we must allow into the UK than they can tell Australia
or the United States.
The main strategic threats to the UK are alleviated
by Brexit. There is of course uncertainty no matter what we do. But a little
bravery now may protect us from far greater dangers ahead. Above all, we will be
better able to control events and make the right decisions if those decisions
are ours to make.
