Playing hardball with Mrs Angry

There’s a little woman I know who is from the Glasgow area and she always gets her own way. If there is a committee meeting she is aggressive. She interrupts. She tries to belittle the point of view of others. People avoid getting into an argument with her because rather than discuss calmly she gets emotional. She makes assertions which are really just her own opinions, but they are presented as truths. If someone crosses her she will bear a grudge, but at the same time she is a sycophant always trying to find allies and sucking up to superiors. I’m sure most of us know men and women like this in the world of work or elsewhere. The problem is that these tactics frequently work. Most of us want a quiet life. If I come across Mr Angry on the street I do my best to avoid eye contact. The problem in Scottish politics is that we are confronted with legions of Mr and Mrs Angry lead by the angriest woman of them all. The problem is that they have been indulged. They have been spoiled. No-one dares to stand up to them. It’s time we started daring.

We may have to face another Scottish independence referendum. I am sick to my stomach at the prospect. Must we really have to go through all that again? Only this time I suspect it would be much worse. The experience of conflict changes you. The first independence referendum divided Scotland in a way that I could not have imagined previously. The nationalists may enjoy this. They claim that they found the experience inspiring. I did not. There will come a point quite soon when the prize for either side will not be worth having. It will be a permanently divided country whether independent or not. We all learn from each other’s tactics. The SNP chose not to accept the result last time. They just kept fighting. I doubt they would accept defeat next time. Yet they appear to think that if they could win by one vote everyone who disagrees with independence would joyfully accept the result and come together united as one Scotland. This may have been the case last time, but we have learned. We too could campaign to overturn the result at an election or through the courts. But no doubt the SNP calculate that the disagreement of nearly half the population would not matter. They are becoming ever more centralist and authoritarian in government. This would be enough to hold Scotland together under all circumstances like it or not.

We do not ask for this fight. We thought that the last battle was decisive. That is what we were told. But it doesn’t always work out that way. Sometimes it is necessary to fight over the same ground twice before we can relax knowing our country is safe. If that is how it has to be, so be it. But for goodness sake make this the final battle and let us at least fight it on our own terms and on ground of our own choosing.

The reputation of David Cameron is looking worse and worse as time goes on. His greatest tragic flaw was overconfidence. He thought he would win a referendum on Scottish independence easily. After all the SNP were miles behind in the polls. He should never have granted it at all. It was the experience of the campaign that created mass nationalism in Scotland. Cameron should have simply told Alex Salmond that the United Kingdom like every other European country was indivisible and it could not be broken up by a vote. Our historical experience is no different from that of countries like Germany, Italy and Spain. They would not allow the formerly independent countries that make up their constituent parts to vote to break up their country. Why should we?

But this is a problem rooted in British history. We have allowed the constituent parts of the UK to continue to maintain a separate identity in a way that is quite uncommon in the world. We have for centuries indulged English, Scottish, Welsh and Irish nationalism. France imposed a common identity, law and language on its parts. The United States made its children pledge that their country was indivisible, because the alternative was the bloodiest war in American history. In Britain however a combination of liberalism and overconfidence meant that we thought we could continue with a very loose sense of common identity. It worked, or seemed to. We didn’t experience the nationalistic revolutions of the 1830s and 1840s. But eventually nationalism always rears its head. It is always ready to take advantage of weakness.

David Cameron was too weak to stand up to the SNP. He should have simply said “No”. This is how the Spanish will see off Catalan nationalism. This is how Abraham Lincoln prevented secession. But even if Cameron was too weak to say “No” why on earth did he make the terms of his agreement with the SNP so beneficial to them?

The Edinburgh Agreement spoke of the result being decisive and that everyone would accept it. But has anyone tried to enforce this? The SNP considered the result of the independence referendum as decisive only if they won. When they lost it was no longer decisive. What’s more it cannot be said that they accepted the result as they immediately set about trying to reverse it.  How long did they wait. Was it a day or was it two? Why wasn't this challenged legally as a failure to follow the Edinburgh Agreement. Why could it not be challenged now? More importantly why didn’t David Cameron insert a clause stating that the SNP would agree that they couldn’t have another referendum for fifty years if they lost? Why did he allow them to set the question? Why did he allow them such a long campaign and to set a date of their own choosing?

The SNP’s tactics of playing Mr and Mrs Angry have been working up to now. We give in rather than confront them. This has to end. If there is to be a second referendum on Scottish independence, let the UK Government organise it, fund it and set the question and the terms. The UK Government should also massively financially support the opposition to the SNP.  After all the Scottish Government used all their power to help the Yes campaign. Apparently impartial Scottish civil servants wrote the SNP's White Paper. The UK Government must see any future referendum as an existential issue for the UK. Scottish independence would destroy our country and deprive us of our flag.  Why pay for a defence budget if you are unwilling to pay to stop the break-up up our country by the ballot box? The BBC should quietly be reminded that it would cease to exist if Scotland won independence and that its first duty is to defend the UK. They did not provide supportive coverage to our enemies in 1940 nor should they help people who hate Britain now. Those people in BBC Scotland who don't like working for an organisation that is British should perhaps work for someone else. 

Above all it is crucial that we make no more concessions to Scottish nationalism at the moment. A "Scottish Six" would be used to fuel the SNP's campaign. Broadcasting is a reserved matter not a devolved one. The UK Government must use this power if STV or BBC Scotland show signs that they are willing to give in to SNP threats or promises. There are far too few voices in Scotland that are willing to criticise the SNP. Let them increase rather than become fewer.

The UK Government had the authority to organise the referendum on the Scottish Parliament. Constitutional matters are reserved. Why give the SNP power to hold a referendum at all? If they don’t like it, tell them that they need not have a referendum at all. If there is to be a question, make it a fair one. It was crucial, perhaps decisive that the EU referendum did not involve a Yes/No answer. A Yes campaign has an inbuilt advantage that may amount to 5% of the vote. Let the Electoral Commission come up with a fair question. It could be “Should Scotland leave the United Kingdom or remain in the United Kingdom?” There may be other alternatives involving different words than “leave” or “remain”. These should be tested to see that they involve no bias and no unfair advantage.

The question of who decides whether Scotland should remain a part of the UK must also be addressed. I would not expect to decide on such an issue in any other country. What right do I have to determine if Bavaria should revert to being a sovereign independent nation state? I am not a German, nor am I Bavarian. What has it to do with me? Someone who wants to break up my country while keeping his own intact is a hypocrite. We have defended our country’s territorial integrity against foreign armies. To allow them to vote us out of existence is perverse. Therefore only British citizens should decide. Moreover, it is unfair that Scots who happen to be living outside Scotland, perhaps for a short time, should have no say in our country’s future. For this reason I would argue that any British citizen who has been on the Electoral register in Scotland in the past twenty years should have the right to vote.

The franchise too on such an important issue should be exactly the same as during a General Election. It makes no sense to give the vote to school children as the issues involved are those that adults who work and have to run a house are more likely to understand as directly affecting their lives. If we are to give the vote to 16 year olds, why not 15 year olds? Why not 10 year olds? The issue concerns their future too. The SNP know that school children are frequently little nats because of football. They also know that they often grow out of it. The break-up of our country is an issue for careful thought and consideration. Let it be decided by adults.

Let us get this over with quickly. We must never again give the SNP a chance to build momentum with a campaign that goes on for years. The period from announcing a referendum to holding it ought to be no more than three or four months. “Twere well it were done quickly”

Finally and most importantly make it absolutely clear that this will be the last time that the SNP will be allowed to have a referendum on independence. Set a legally binding date far in the future. If we don’t do this, then they will want to hold another referendum in another two or three years.

I would much prefer that Theresa May simply says “No” you’ve had your referendum. But if she feels unwilling or unable to do that, then at least set conditions that will make the contest fairer than last time. It’s time that we stood up to Mrs Angry. If they want to boycott the referendum, then we will just have to take the result as more decisive than it otherwise would have been. We are all sick to death of Nicola Sturgeon. Let this be the final battle and if she loses, let her do the decent thing and retire from public life. 

You've already had your independence referendum

I feel like I’ve been in one long referendum campaign for the past five years and more. I’ve written over two hundred blogs, nearly all of them about Scottish politics. It gets tiring. Now some Scottish nationalists want another referendum. The SNP campaigned for Scottish independence first time round and lost by 10%. They campaigned for the UK to remain in the EU and lost by 4%. Their response each time to losing is the same. We want another go. What if they had a second independence referendum? What if they lost again? Would they want still another go? This is fundamentally anti-democratic and is deeply damaging to our democracy.

It is exceptional for a part of a sovereign nation state to be given the chance to vote for independence. Few indeed are the places in the world that would allow such a vote. I can think of nowhere in Europe. Spain won’t allow Catalonia a legal vote to secede. France would not allow Corsica. Germany would not allow Saxony. The USA fought a war to prevent secession and doubtless would do so again. But the UK Government decided that it would not stand in the way of Scottish independence if that is what the majority wanted. The majority did not want independence. The vote was not even that close. 10% is a big majority in a referendum.

Now what is the point of having a referendum? It is to decide a question one way or another. If it doesn’t do that, it has no purpose. I would have been more than happy if the UK had never gone down the route of having referendums, if we had remained simply a representative democracy. But if you are to have a referendum, the result must be accepted by winners and losers and the result must stand for some considerable time.

So that everything would be fair, both the UK and Scottish Governments signed an agreement in 2012. It’s worth quoting from this Edinburgh Agreement. The Scottish independence referendum of 2014 was to “deliver a fair test and a decisive expression of the views of people in Scotland and a result that everyone will respect.” Has this happened? Have the losers accepted that the result was decisive? Did they respect the result?

Let’s imagine that there were to be another agreement between the UK and Scottish Governments to have a second referendum. Would they use similar wording about the result being decisive and that everyone respecting it? But what would be the point, for we already know that if the Scottish nationalists lost, they would immediately demand a rerun until such time as they won?

But what if the SNP eventually did win one of these independence referendums? Would there be a chance two years down the line for the Scottish people to vote again? Of course there would not. Why do Scottish nationalists get as many chances as they want, but Pro UK people only have to lose once?

It would have been undemocratic and a disgrace if the UK Government had failed to grant Scottish independence if there had been a vote in favour of it. Imagine if the UK Government refused to accept the result and described it as merely advisory. But here is the thing that is so undemocratic. If the SNP win that’s it, Scotland becomes independent. There would be no going back. But if they lose, they think they just have to wait a couple of years to have another go. Sorry, but this die is loaded. This game is rigged. 

What we are learning about referendums is that losers don’t want to respect the will of the majority. They just want to win. But this is just the same as if Labour won the majority of seats in Parliament, but the Tories decided they would continue ruling anyway.

If referendums are to mean anything, they have to be implemented and there has to be some considerable gap of time between them. What does a “decisive expression” mean if less than two years after the Scottish independence referendum we have to try again? If referendums don’t decide questions, the answer is not to have more of them, but to have none of them.

Scotland is an integral part of a single nation state called the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom according to the normal usage of the English language is also a country. Far too many Scottish nationalists don’t understand this point. It’s worthwhile therefore once more going to the dictionary. This is from the OED definition of a country:

Someone who has German citizenship is from the country called Germany, likewise someone who has British citizenship is from the UK. I can’t have Bavarian citizenship unless I can get into a time machine. Likewise I am not a citizen of Scotland. Scottish nationalists may not like this fact, but it nevertheless is the truth. The fact that the UK is made up of parts that formerly were independent, is no different from the fact that Germany, Italy, France and most other countries are made up of formerly independent countries.

This should all be basic. What it means though is that when we have a nationwide UK referendum it is quite simply irrelevant how the various parts of the UK vote. Similarly when there was a referendum in Scotland on independence, it would have made no difference if the Borders had voted to remain. They would have been “dragged” out of the UK against their will. Would that have been unfair and anti-democratic? No, because the vote was across the whole of Scotland and democrats are obliged to accept the will of the majority.

Scottish nationalists will object that the Borders are not a country. But strictly speaking and in international terms neither is Scotland. Scotland is not an independent sovereign nation state. If you ask people all around the world to name the countries of the world they will name nation states. They will not generally name parts of nation states. Scotland has not been a nation state for centuries and recently we voted decisively not to become one again. The fact that Scotland is frequently called a country or even a nation is completely irrelevant. In international terms Scotland is not a country in the way that France is, because Scotland lacks the qualities that define what countries are in international terms. The quality that Scotland lacks is that it is not an independent sovereign nation state. Scotland therefore has no more justified grievance about being “dragged” out of the EU than would the Borders or Aberdeenshire have a grievance if they voted to stay in the UK but Scotland voted to leave. Nicola Sturgeon may act as if she leads an independent country, but she should continually be reminded that she does not. She has the status of the Governor or Texas or the leader of Lower Saxony. Such people are no doubt important in their way, but they really should not get above their station. 

Amusingly if the SNP really thinks that parts should have a veto against the whole, then it would be worth reminding them that this could equally apply to any future Scottish independence referendum. In that case they may end up with an independent Scotland consisting of Glasgow and Dundee.

How though should we respond if the SNP actually do decide that they want another independence referendum? I don’t think they will in the end. As I have frequently argued, Brexit makes the argument for Scottish independence much harder to make. But I may be wrong about this. Ruth Davidson and others have suggested that the UK Government ought not to oppose a second referendum. The logic of this is that it would encourage support for independence if the UK Government was seen to be thwarting the will of the Scottish Parliament. The trouble is that too many Scottish politicians respond to the SNP with appeasement. If only we make one more concession to the nationalists, they'll become proud Brits once more. This is obviously false. There is no appeasing Scottish nationalism. They will take every concession and still ask for more. It's time to cease giving in or we might as well give up. 

But how should we respond to SNP demands? There are a few alternatives that are worth exploring. We could take the Spanish route and follow the example they have shown in dealing with independence demands from Catalonia. The Spanish Government simply tells the Catalans that they will never have a legal vote on independence and that Spain will do everything in its power to stop secession. From the perspective of keeping Spain together, this is without doubt the safest route. But on the other hand it isn’t very democratic. Why force people to stay if they really don’t want to? If the resolve to leave builds up enough, you may even end up with some sort of revolt. The Spanish route is quite clearly both possible and legal. It's working out fine in Spain. Catalonia is no closer to independence. Still I would be reluctant to suggest that the UK should go down that route unless absolutely necessary. Every time Alex Salmond pops up on television however, I'm inclined to prick his pomposity with an outright refusal. Let us however not play this card, but rather simply keep it always in reserve. 

Alternatively you could go down the route of saying to Scotland you can have another referendum whenever you please. The Scottish Nationalists want the Scottish Parliament to control the timing and the wording of all future referendums. But do we really want to go on having endless referendums until the SNP get the result they want? That too is unfair and does not respect the referendum result we had in 2014.

A better position would be to say to the SNP, like Theresa May has just done, you have already had your referendum and the issue is settled. This isn't to say that there will never be another Scottish independence referendum, but there has to be a decent gap between them. There are many reasons for this. Firstly, the UK simply does not have the time and energy to both deal with leaving the EU and Scottish independence. Secondly we don’t know yet what sort of a relationship the UK will have with the EU. This is not because we don’t have a plan. We do. We plan to leave the EU. But where we will end up depends not just on what we in the UK want, but also on what the European Union wants. We can’t dictate to them. Our plan may conflict with what they want. Let’s hope we end up with a relationship of free trade between friendly European countries. Let’s hope we can all more or less continue to live and work in each other’s countries. But no-one can know for sure how a post Brexit UK will relate to the EU, because we haven’t even begun the negotiations yet.

For this reason any Scottish independence referendum must wait at the very least until the UK leaves the EU. It would make sense furthermore to see how this relationship is working out before Scotland decided that it couldn’t bear to remain in the UK. So the answer to a request from Nicola Sturgeon to hold a second independence referendum ought not to be “No”, but rather “Not yet”. Less than two years have passed since the last one. The SNP talked of that referendum as being a once in a lifetime opportunity. Well two years isn’t a lifetime. How long should the SNP be made to wait? Who knows? This need not be determined now. But here's my suggestion. Brexiteers had to wait 41 years for a second referendum. Let the SNP wait at least half as long. 

In the meantime it is vital that Pro UK remain supporters accept that the UK is going to leave the EU. Decide if you still want Scotland to be part of the UK. If you do, stop helping the Scottish nationalists by agreeing with them. Rather start helping the UK by fighting those who would try to dismember our country. Cease being negative about Britain and our economic prospects. Such negativity is liable to turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Instead help turn life outside the EU into a success story. There are challenges ahead but if Leave and Remain people unite we can meet them all. Above all don’t be like the SNP. Accept the result and move on.