The defeat of the SNP has given the Scottish
Conservative Party an opportunity, but it seems determined not to take it. For
at least the next 5 years and probably for much longer there will be no point
debating what Scotland’s national anthem will be after independence. The
constitutional issue that has dominated Scottish politics since 2011 will be a non-issue.
So, what will be the issue? For the Scottish Conservatives it will be missing the
point. Again.
If independence is no longer an issue, then the only
issue that matters will be economics. We are back to left/right politics and this
revolves primarily around whether your ideal is a free-market economy or a form
of socialism/social democracy.
Labour is a party that believes in socialism. I think
it is fair to say that every single Labour MP would prefer it if Labour could
create a genuine democratic socialist society. But in the 1980s and 1990s
Labour decided that socialism was not going to win elections and so moved
towards social democracy. It isn’t that Labour particularly likes social
democracy. It would prefer socialism. But social democracy will do for now and
is better than allowing the right to rule.
Given that what Labour will offer for the next few
years is social democracy and given that what the Conservative Party has
offered while in government has also been social democracy and that this way of
thinking has led to an historic defeat, it would appear obvious that the
Conservative Party has to offer something different. What could that something
different be? Well obviously, free markets.
Having witnessed the defeat of the SNP it is particularly
obtuse of the Scottish Conservative Party to flirt with soft nationalism. Various
leadership candidates offer various forms of separatism. If only we were a bit
more Scottish, we’d win more votes. But you cannot oppose separatism with more
separatism. Soft nationalism that views Scotland as a separate country even
while it is part of the UK is the root and the cause of hard nationalism.
It was Labour and Lib Dem soft nationalism that
thought it was unfair that Scotland voted Labour but got Tory governments or
that it was unfair that Scotland voted Remain, but the UK left the EU. But if you
treat Scotland as a separate country, you inevitably make the argument for independence.
Let’s be clear then. If the Scottish Conservative Party
embraces separatism, it also embraces nationalism in which case it loses me. I will
never vote for it. I will campaign against it.
But this all completely misses the point as usual. The
failure of the Scottish Conservative Party is not because it is not Scottish
enough it is because it fails to make the economic argument for free markets.
Scottish politics is very left wing. We have a
nationalised shipyard that cannot build ships. We have rent controls. We have price
controls on alcohol and sugar. We have the state trying its best to interfere with
our daily lives for our apparent own good.
The Scottish Conservative Party’s response to this has
been centrist and social democratic and it is likely that whoever wins the
leadership will continue in the same way whether as a separatist or not.
But what is needed is quite the opposite. Left wing
thinking prevails in Scotland and it will be difficult to persuade voters that
free market alternatives are better, but that is a reason to try harder to
persuade rather than not to persuade at all.
There is a problem with the Conservative brand, but
there was equally a problem with the Labour brand in the 1980s when it was
associated with trade unions, the winter of discontent and Michael Foot. The
answer was Tony Blair’s rebranding and embrace of social democracy. It worked.
So, the Conservative Party has to ditch what the
public disliked about its government from 2010 to 2024 and convince voters that
it is now the New Conservative Party, which like Daz is new and improved.
But the change unlike with Daz has to be genuine. Blair
really was a social democrat and I think Starmer is one too at least out of pragmatism.
Well, what is the genuine alternative to social democracy?
It is free market economics. There is nothing else.
Centrism is not an alternative at all. It is just more
of the same social democracy. It is what has failed for the past 14 years.
The Scottish Conservative Party needs to ditch the
word “Tory” and neither use it about itself nor allow broadcasters to use it.
It needs to make clear that just as Labour is not judged on the record of Jim
Callaghan and Harold Wilson because they ruled long ago so it ought not to be
judged on the rule of Margaret Thatcher because that too was long ago.
The New Conservative Party whether in Scotland or in
the UK generally has to make the case both to those who voted Conservative and
those who voted Reform. But in order to appeal to social democrats it must win
the argument that free markets bring prosperity while social democracy does
not. It cannot expect to win this argument by becoming itself social democratic.
That’s like “winning” the Second World War by becoming German. It’s another
word for losing.
It is almost impossible for a new political party in
the UK to win enough seats to form a government. The last time it happened was
in 1924 with the first Labour government.
The Conservative brand therefore is necessary. If the
Conservative Party ceased to exist Reform would still not be able to form a
government in 5 years’ time. But in order to attract Reform voters it is
necessary for the Conservative Party to meet them halfway.
The Scottish Conservatives need to make the argument
that free market economics brings you prosperity. If you want better education
and healthcare then lower public spending, shrink the state, lower taxation and
you will automatically grow the economy to the extent that we can afford better
hospitals and schools plus higher wages.
The reason that Scotland is poorer than London and the
Southeast is that Scotland is full of people who believe in socialism. It is
this that has prevented Scotland from moving on from the decline of heavy industry
and why we are still the equivalent of the rust belt in the USA.
But look at the results of socialism. We have a
completely useless shipyard that is unable to make ships in a cost-efficient
way and on time. We nationalise the shipyard and throw public money at it. Does
it become a better shipyard? It does not. Why doesn’t it? Because socialism
doesn’t work. Social democracy works a little better, but not much.
The right has truth on its side and all of the evidence
too. It ought to be straightforward for Scottish Conservatives to argue that
nationalisation, rent controls and price controls make Scotland poorer and that
socialised medicine makes us sicker and unable to see a doctor.
The laws of supply and demand tell me that if
something is free (e.g. healthcare or lemonade on a hot day) it will have to
rationed, but no one in Scotland least of all the Scottish Conservatives dares
to make the argument.
It matters little at the moment who leads the Conservative
Party either in the UK or in Scotland. For the next few years, the right will
have to watch social democracy in action. What maters is that the right begins
to make the argument for free market solutions to both the problems faced in
Scotland and the UK generally.
Social democracy will inevitably fail because it
misunderstands human nature. It may make us more equal, but it will also make
us all poorer.
The argument that Conservatives everywhere need to
make is that free markets will make both you and our country richer. This
argument has the merit that it is self-evidently true to anyone who understands
basic economics, which is why it is perverse that Conservatives nowhere want to
make it.
Instead, the Scottish Conservatives will once more
debate missing the point.
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