The problem with Scottish nationalism is that it would
do nothing to address the fundamental problems Scotland faces, but instead
would have added some new ones that we didn’t face before.
Scotland is a wonderful place to live. We are sparsely
populated which means that countryside is always nearby and largely empty. The
Highlands are as beautiful a part of the world as anywhere on earth. There are
beaches to wander on and mountains to climb. There are historic sites to visit.
If you have a reasonable job, you are likely to have a good standard of living.
Why then does Scotland have a static population that is due to decline?
While the population of the UK has grown by nearly 30 million
since 1939, the population of Scotland has grown by around 400,000. Scotland
makes up 32% of the UK’s landmass but only 8% of the population. Why does no
one want to live in Scotland?
It’s not the weather. Scotland’s weather is usually
mild. We avoid the unpleasant heatwaves and, in the winter, now it only snows
for a few days and is rarely extremely cold. Winter in Scotland is much more
pleasant than either northern or eastern Europe.
It gets very dark in December, but the compensation is
that we have wonderful amounts of light in the summer.
There are a number of reasons why Scotland does not
attract people or give birth to enough babies to increase our population that
way. The main reasons are history, geography and politics.
If you look at the British Isles you will find that
those places that were most prosperous in the nineteenth century were those with
the greatest degree of industrialisation. From the Midlands in England northwards
there is a divide. Those areas including Wales and Northern Ireland that were
involved in heavy industry have not recovered from the decline of that industry
which took place not merely in the UK but all over the developed world. It simply
became unprofitable for countries like ours to dig coal, make steel and build
ships. What made us rich in the nineteenth century made us poor in the late
twentieth. This is why these industries closed.
Scotland’s problem is that large parts of the country
that were formerly industrialised remain poor with few economic opportunities.
People from these parts of Scotland are more likely to leave than arrive.
The problem however is exacerbated by the fact that post
industrial areas of Britain vote as if they were still industrialised. This
makes the situation worse. In Scotland public opinion just as in northern
England and Wales remains to the left. It blames Conservatism for the decline
of its industries and thinks that the solution to its problems is socialism or
social democracy.
In Scotland there are still people who think that
socialist ideas like rent controls fixing food prices, raising taxes and
increasing public spending to provide the population with free things will
increase prosperity. But this is economically illiterate.
The problem with industrialised areas of Scotland was
that they were making a loss on their steel, coal and shipbuilding industries. None
of the above socialist solutions could in any way lead to these places making a
profit.
As we are discovering with the SNP rent controls leads
to housing shortages, raising taxes leads to less revenue, providing free
things leads to rationing. It is harder for Scots to get into university because
tuition fees are free. It is harder to get NHS treatment because there is a waiting
list (rationing). If you try to fix food prices you will end up with a shortage
too.
The only way for formerly industrialised parts of
Scotland to become profitable and to have better living standards is if people
in those areas follow the basic laws of economics that tell us that businesses
will profit if you lower the burden of taxation, and you follow the laws of
supply and demand to increase profits. But it is precisely this that no one in
Scotland votes for.
Scots in poorer parts of Scotland think that their
problems will be solved by higher public spending, more benefits and more free
things, but it is precisely these things that keep them poor. It is not so much
post-industrialisation that damages Scotland as the political mentality that
goes with it.
Cut taxes, cut public spending make it easier to do
business in Scotland and prosperity will gradually follow, but it is precisely
this that the SNP does not want to do. This makes Scotland ever more dependent
on UK Treasury fiscal transfers and ever less likely to vote for independence
for that reason. It is as if the SNP were deliberately trying to make its goal
harder.
Historically Scotland was divided by geography. The central
belt and the coast from Edinburgh to Aberdeen were quite different from the
rest. This is the fundamental reason for Scotland’s static population.
Much of Scotland is made up of marginal land that is
inaccessible from the major population centres. Crofting may be necessary in
order to keep the land occupied, but it doesn’t make a profit. Neither does small
scale fishing. This leaves tourism. But even here the lack of infrastructure in
many of the most beautiful parts of Scotland hinders us.
I would love to visit Scotland’s islands, but I am
deterred by the cost of accommodation and the lack of reliable transport links.
I love visiting the Highlands, but many roads are still single track and are totally
unsuitable for the volume of traffic they receive in the summer.
But it is precisely this lack of infrastructure that
makes it harder for businesses in remote areas to make a profit. These parts of
Scotland don’t need independence, they need better roads, better ferries, more
tunnels and more bridges. If the rest of the Scottish economy was performing better,
we could afford to build these. But we can only afford to improve the infrastructure
if our economy makes greater profits, but it is precisely this that it won’t do
because the SNP is doing the opposite of what needs to be done.
If Scotland wants to increase its population, then
those parts of Scotland that are at present almost empty have to be given the
opportunity to develop businesses that are profitable which attract people to
the area. But it is difficult indeed to develop a profitable business if your
customers cannot get there because the ferries don’t work, and the roads are so
narrow that the cost of transport is prohibitive.
Millions upon millions of people have arrived in the UK
in the past decades. If we want to attract people to Scotland, we should first
try to attract them, because it is easier for them to make the move to Scotland
than anyone else in the world. We already have the scenery and the quality of
life in Scotland. We have the space, and we have the beauty, but we don’t have
the job opportunities and the salaries that would attract someone who has a
good job in the area surrounding London to come here.
It isn’t merely that the SNP’s policies discourage
business and make it harder to prosper, worse is that instead of taking
practical steps to improve the Scottish economy it spends all its time banging
on about independence, which would do nothing whatsoever to address the historical
and geographical problems that Scotland needs to solve.
Worse the constant threat of secession discourages
those people from other parts of the UK who might decide to make their future
in Scotland, because they fear that they might end up foreigners in their own
country with houses they can’t sell. Why come to Scotland to do the same job
you have already only to be taxed more to do it? Why indeed? That is why no one
wants to come to Scotland.
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