Few people in Britain would notice a football match
between Romania and Kosovo in the qualifying round of the European
championship. The match was stopped because of Romanian fans chanting and
banners proclaiming that Kosovo is Serbia. Even this would not be especially
interesting except for what it tells us about the political situation in
Scotland.
There is a certain oddity too. Romania has played England on numerous occasions. There has been no chanting that England is the UK. Likewise, it is likely that Romania has played against the Faroe Islands. There have been no banners telling the Faroese players that the Faroe Islands are Denmark. Why are Romanian fans so interested in opposing the independence of Kosovo?
The problem with Kosovo is that it achieved
independence by means of a unilateral declaration of independence. The war in
Yugoslavia eventually gave rise to six new states seven if we include Kosovo,
but Kosovo is the most problematic. The reason is that it was part of Serbia,
and the Serbs were not and still are not willing to recognise that
independence.
There were special circumstances behind Kosovo’s
declaration of independence. The Kosovo War involved the then Federal Republic
of Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) in a civil war against the Kosovo
Liberation Army. This led to the attempt to expel Kosovar civilians and the
intervention of NATO.
Most Western countries due to these circumstances
recognised the independence of Kosovo, but it set a precedent that was later
used by Russia to justify the independence from Ukraine of Crimea and the
Donbas. It is this precedent also that means that Kosovo is not universally
recognised today.
Five EU member states Spain, Slovakia, Cyprus,
Romania, and Greece do not recognise Kosovo’s independence. But all EU member
states would need to recognize Kosovo before it could join the EU.
Why don’t these EU states recognise Kosovo? The reason
is that it is not just the UK that has secession movements. Spain worries
particularly about Catalonia being allowed to declare independence
unilaterally. Slovakia worries about Hungarians and Rusyns (similar to
Ukrainians). Cyprus worries about Turks in Northern Cyprus. Romania worries
about Hungarians in Transylvania and on its border with Hungary. Greece worries
about Albanians and Macedonians.
The borders of Europe exist for historical reasons
most frequently due to wars. There are any number of formerly independent
states which merged. Some states gained territory in the past while others
lost. Poland lost its eastern
territories to Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania and gained its western
territories from Germany. Austria and Hungary ruled much of central Europe
until 1918, but now are small. Italy gained South Tyrol after the First World
War, but the majority living there are German speakers. Once you go down the
route of allowing formerly independent states to gain independence especially
by means of unilateral declarations, the fear is that chaos would result and
most likely war.
There are too many formerly independent states with conflicting
territorial claims. There are too many past injustices about borders. There are
too many ancient battles that could be refought like Bannockburn 1314 or Kosovo
1389.
It is in this context that the Supreme Courts
judgement on the legitimacy of the Scottish Parliament legislating for a second
referendum on independence is crucial. The SNP compared Scotland to Kosovo. But
the historical context is quite different. The British Army has not attacked
Scotland and attempted to expel its population. There has been no civil war in
the United Kingdom. Scots have the same rights to live and work and vote as
everyone else. There has been no oppression at all.
The Supreme Court ruled that Scotland was not a colony
and therefore was simply part of the UK in the same way as Catalonia is part of
Spain and the South Tyrol is part of Italy. The right to self-determination
only applies to colonies, it doesn’t apply to the parts of modern European
democracies. If it did then every formerly independent part of France or
Germany would have the right to leave whenever it wanted.
We already have self-determination because we live in
nation state where we each have a vote for Parliament. It is not undemocratic
if Burgundy votes differently to France. If it were, democracy would everywhere
be impossible.
This is what everyone else thinks in Europe. There is
not a single EU member state that will grant a legal referendum to a part
seeking independence.
But let’s say the SNP the right. Let’s imagine that
Scotland is indeed like Kosovo and that a vicious civil war had just been
fought. The Scottish Parliament unilaterally declares independence. What would
be the result?
Well, we already know from Kosovo. Five EU member
states would not recognise the independence of Scotland. Romanian football fans
would proclaim that Scotland was part of the UK. Scotland would not obtain EU
membership because these five, perhaps more would oppose it.
Even under the best case scenario which obtained in
2014, with UK cooperation and permission to hold a legal referendum, it would
have been necessary to persuade countries like Spain that Scottish independence
did not constitute a dangerous precedent that Catalans might exploit.
If the former UK had argued for recognition of
Scottish independence and had done all it could to help Scotland diplomatically
then it is likely that eventually Scotland would have been allowed to join the
EU.
But the SNP has not been arguing for this best case
scenario. It has been arguing either to legislate for its own referendum on
independence or to hijack a General Election or a Scottish Parliament
Election.
But all of these methods amount to a unilateral
declaration of independence. So long as the UK Government does not recognise
whatever method the SNP chooses to assert Scottish independence then the SNP is
left with nothing but a unilateral declaration.
But Scotland is not Kosovo. No one is being oppressed.
What’s more no one internationally thinks that Scots are being oppressed or
that Scotland is a colony. If the SNP went down the route of a unilateral
declaration of independence, it would obtain for Scotland even less recognition
than Kosovo has received.
Kosovo rightly had the sympathy of much of the
international community, but why would anyone think a unilateral declaration of
independence was justified in Scotland?
If Scotland could obtain independence without the UK’s
permission and that is really what the SNP is arguing, then anyone in Europe
could set out to split from the country they are now in or to join another that
they used to be part of. If Scotland could obtain independence because it once
was independent hundreds of years ago, then anyone could.
The SNP’s latest ruse of claiming it will negotiate
independence if it wins more seats in Scotland than any other party could
easily be obtained in the following circumstance.
SNP 24 seats 35% of the vote
Labour 23 Seats 36% of vote
Conservatives 6 seats 15% of the vote
Lib Dems 4 seats 10% of vote.
Imagine the precedent this would set if it succeeded.
The SNP would be saying to every breakaway movement in Europe you too can leave
Spain or France by winning around a third of the vote in any election you
choose to describe as a vote on secession even if another party wins more votes
and parties opposed to independence win the majority of the vote.
Under these circumstances the threat to every state’s
territorial integrity would be such that Scotland would not gain any
recognition at all. There would be zero chance of joining the EU.
There is no constitutional principle that can turn a
General Election into a referendum on independence. The SNP is acting
unilaterally in supposing that it can define it in this way, and it would have
to act unilaterally to obtain independence if the British Government didn’t
agree with the SNP’s assessment that it had won independence with 35% of the
vote.
Unilateral declarations are possible and might even
succeed. But as the example of Kosovo shows this route won’t lead to EU
membership. There is no prospect of Kosovo joining the EU.
The SNP needs to stop pretending that there is any
alternative to waiting patiently. There is not.
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