Sunday 13 August 2023

We are going to need a bigger barge


I don’t tend to believe in conspiracy theories. Indeed, there is something of a contradiction in believing in a conspiracy theory. If it is due to a conspiracy, it is highly unlikely to be true. But just because something is called a conspiracy theory doesn’t mean that it actually is one.

Take the demographics of the United States. What is happening ought not to be happening. What’s more if it happens there, it will happen here. But that’s impossible. It must be a conspiracy.

The United States was overwhelmingly settled by Europeans and black people who were forced to be slaves. In 1950 it was approximately 90% white and 10% black. But by 2045 white people will make up 49% of the population.

The UK by contrast in 1950 was 99.9% white, but in England and Wales the latest census tells us that the figure is 82%. In London it is around 60%.

But the United States was still at 80% white people as recently as 1990 only for this to drop to 61% by 2020.

The percentage of white British people has dropped by around 5% in England and Wales in the past decade. You don’t need to be a statistical genius to realise that the UK is following the path of the United States, but two or three decades behind.

The issue is not I believe the farcical scenes of asylum seekers being put on a barge only to be taken off again. Nor is it to do with people arriving in rubber dinghies.

The vast majority of the people who arrive in the UK do so legally. They apply for a visa. They fly to a UK airport. This is how most of the one million people who arrived here last year came. The dinghies and the barges are a distraction. The numbers involved by comparison with the legal arrivals are trivial.

The reason for this demographic shift is that the successive governments have not been honest with the British public. We have not been having enough babies, so there are not enough taxpayers to fund pensions and the welfare state unless we import them. Prior to Brexit we imported them from the EU, afterwards from outside the EU.

We should have paid women to have babies in the 1960s. We should have made the welfare state and state pension affordable decades ago. We should have based the NHS on free market principles rather than socialism while keeping it available to all who needed it. But there wasn’t the political courage or the political will.

Does it matter? This is the great unknown question. It would be great if race, religion, language and nationality made no difference and we all just judged everyone else on the content of their character. But if that was to be the way humanity evolved, why did it take until now?

I think the United States would have had a radically different character to what it does have if it had been settled by the Chinese or if somehow it had been Arabians who had arrived in the New World in 1492. If Russian Alaska had expanded southwards taking over the whole continent, what is now the USA would be like Russia rather the USA.

A country is not primarily the territory it occupies it is the people who lived there and who formed the culture and history that followed.

The Founding Fathers of the United States had British names and British ideas about democracy, human rights and freedom. They would not have written the foundation documents of the United States if they had been from a different culture.

So too every President and nearly every important figure in the history of the United States was a European. Every inventor, every businessman, every general, every writer, every composer was a European. Almost the whole of American culture (with exceptions like jazz) and history was created by Europeans until perhaps the 1960s.

But why should we expect the United States to continue its present essentially European nature if Europeans cease to be the majority? Why should the new majority that is not European feel any affinity with the culture and history that was created by Europeans? What will unite it? Stories about George Washington chopping down a tree? But why should I care about a story that has nothing to do with me?

This is why American politics has never been so divided. There is no longer a shared demos.

But this is not merely a problem for the United States. It is a problem for all of us. The United States was an example of democracy, capitalism and freedom that the rest of the West followed.

It was the United States that broke the stalemate of the First World War, not so much by its fighting, but by the fact that its potential in the fight was limitless.

Britain alone could neither have defeated Germany nor Japan in World War Two. Without the United States the Soviet Union would probably have eventually defeated both.

The Cold War was won almost exclusively because of the United States because it bankrupted Russia.

None of these things would have happened if someone else had settled in North America.

But this is our problem. If instead of Europeans, you fill the United States with non-Europeans why would you suppose that the result would be the same? It wouldn’t have been the same if the Mayflower had been filled with Hindus, or Muslims or Buddhists. You could argue it might have been better or worse, but it wouldn’t have been the same.

But if this goes for the United States it goes for the rest of western Europe too. If instead of Normans Britain had been settled by Hindus, Muslims or Buddhists who taught us their language and religion, we would today be similar to countries that are at present full of Hindus, Muslims or Buddhists. The culture and history of Britain would have been radically different if this had happened.

Yet the rate of migration into Britain today is far higher than it was in the years following the Norman Conquest. The idea that we will all remain the same and the character of our country will be just the same, while the people living here are completely different from those who went before makes little sense.

There are two experiments being made and no one knows the result. Can people with radically different beliefs, cultures and outlooks somehow create one people from their diversity? It’s possible, but everything I know about history tells me this won’t happen. If Scots and English people who are almost the same cannot bear to live together, how can people who have almost nothing in common.

Secondly can the world do without Europe and the United States? Almost everything I can think of that I value culturally, historically and in terms of the world’s progress came from Europe and the United States. So, let’s see if we can do without both.

I don’t believe in conspiracy theories. No one set out to plan what is happening. It is happening because of western weakness and guilt about our own success. But the Chinese don’t feel guilty. The Chinese are not allowed to be divided. At some point around the centenary of the Battle of Midway 1942 we will find that the world is led by China with a vassal Russia in support.

There will be no USA nor Europe to defeat it and instead of the United States supporting individualism, free markets and liberty, we will have a Chinese Communist Party that cares neither for its own people nor for ours. It was something quite unique in world history that European thought created the idea that the individual mattered morally. Neither the Russians nor the Chinese ever believed in such weakness.

To suppose we can solve the problem with barges is comical.