Before we get too excited about the events of the
weekend, it is worth remembering that there is still a significant chunk of the
Scottish population who want independence. It’s hard to measure this chunk
exactly. It is normally less than 50%, but it is normally more than 40%. It may
drop a bit due to Sturgeon and Murrell resigning. It may drop a bit more due to
the election for the SNP leader descending into chaos and the dishonesty about
how many SNP members there are, but it’s still the case that around half the
people you meet in Scotland, your colleagues and neighbours want independence.
But this is not to say that the rather shall we say sudden
departures of both Sturgeon and Murrell are not significant. But the
significance is that the explanations for why they went are not on the surface
sufficient. Suddenly we wake up one morning and Sturgeon is going. There is no
obvious reason why.
Murrell perhaps went because he had been less than
open about the SNP membership figures. This could conceivably have serious implications.
After all SNP members pay a certain amount of money into the SNP. If I say that
there are 100,000 members but there are really only 70,000 then this will
change the SNP’s income. If only Murrell knew the true figure of members, then
only he may have known the true figure in the SNP’s bank balance.
But this on its own is not enough to force someone to
resign so hastily that apparently, he had an ultimatum to go by 12 o’clock and
resigned at 11.56. Which of us after working for 25 years for a company would
be forced to resign within a couple of hours if the only thing, we had done was
underestimate the membership or the extent of our customers?
There are all sorts of sensible political reasons why
Murrell might have wanted to keep secret a drastic fall in SNP membership. The
reason is that this is something not merely damaging to the SNP, but to its
chances of independence. The SNP needs its members to canvass in elections and
to campaign if there were ever to be a second referendum. If SNP members are
leaving it implies that they no longer believe that the SNP can deliver its
promise of independence.
This is the canary in the coal mine. If members are
leaving it is reasonable to suppose that voters will leave the SNP too. If
those who are so committed that they wish to pay the SNP every month no longer
want to do so why will the less committed get out of bed to vote for the SNP?
But none of this is enough to explain either Sturgeon’s
sudden departure or Murrell’s. We keep waiting for more.
The story about Humza Yousaf being the anointed successor
to Sturgeon, so much so that nearly the whole of the senior SNP supported him,
is that he could be trusted to continue the Sturgeon dynasty and keep a lid on
whatever secrets if any were contained in its archives.
But it no longer looks as if Yousaf will win. Kate
Forbes is obviously more talented, and Yousaf is now tainted with whatever has
caused the SNP to implode this weekend, because both Murrell and Sturgeon
desperately wanted Yousaf to be the next First Minister.
Forbes is a nice person and a decent human being. Don’t
underestimate this. Any party will benefit from a decent human being leading
it. It was Boris Johnson’s moral flaws as much as anything else that destroyed him.
But Forbes has a couple of problems. One she is a young
mother with a very young child. What if she were to have another child? Would
that mean a First Minister taking maternity leave? But more importantly how can
she lead a party whose senior members have made clear that they don’t want her
to be leader.
The membership may have wanted Liz Truss, but the MPs didn’t,
and she lasted a little over a month.
Forbes if allowed could be a good long term leader of
the SNP and could also benefit Scotland. If Scotland wants to be independent,
it has to cease being dependent on the UK. So, you first and foremost have to
get rid of the dependency culture in Scotland, you have to get people working
and you have to start making a profit rather than spending millions on boats that
won’t float.
Competence should be at the heart of the independence
movement, because without it there is no chance of persuading the majority of
Scots that we would be better off leaving the UK than staying a part of it. Run
Scotland well for twenty years, focus on that rather than independence and you
just might find you have won the argument.
But the SNP’s tragic flaw is impatience it always has
to have a referendum next year, so it does nothing to run Scotland well and so
is never actually ready for its referendum.
Forbes therefore won’t have the chance to create the prosperous,
profitable Scotland, because her own party if it does not split from her will not
let her. It will waste its time on virtue signally and demand Forbes does in
months what she could only do in decades.
Things could get worse. If honest, decent human being
Kate Forbes goes for a forensic investigation into the SNP or even if she doesn’t
there is every chance that scandals of which we have yet no idea may be waiting
to come out. With Murrell and Sturgeon gone and Yousaf perhaps gone too, who is
to stop it all coming out now.
No one knows the level of scandal at the heart of the
SNP. Activities in Bute house that the Procurator fiscal thought worthy of a
criminal trial came out years after they allegedly happened. Who is to say
there are not more such activities. That at least would be a more reasonable
explanation for recent events than the ones that we have been told.
The SNP is wounded no matter who leads it from now on.
Its best chance is to honestly confront its faults and move forward, but that
might be the equivalent of hitting the heads of the five families and might be
so scandalous that nothing would remain.
Support for the SNP will fall in the short term.
Perhaps as much as ten percent. Support for independence may fall a similar amount,
which would put it out of reach for the foreseeable future.
But we still have a battle. Large numbers of Scots
especially young Scots still want Scottish independence. The SNP is weakened.
It is perhaps even finished if more scandal comes out, but we will still have
to persuade our friends, neighbours and colleagues to go back to the time when
most of us were quite content to be both British and Scottish.
