Since 2016 the SNP has consistently hoped that Brexit
would make it easier for Sturgeon to argue for Scottish independence. Scottish
opinion was in favour of remaining in the EU, so disappointed Remainers would support
the SNP’s argument that the only way to have EU membership would be to leave
the UK and join the EU. Many Pro UK Remainers argued and some still do that
Brexit was folly for this reason as it made it more likely that the UK would
break up.
I argued instead that Brexit would make the case for
Scottish independence harder. While it is true that some angry Remainers have moved
towards Scottish nationalism the SNP still has to win the argument because it
has never addressed the consequence of Brexit for independence. If there were
ever to be a proper campaign every aspect of the SNP’s case would be
scrutinised. What we learned with the SNP’s latest plan is that the case for independence
is not only worse than it was in 2014, it is much worse. So much so that it is
hard to imagine Scottish voters choosing it.
The issue has never been EU membership itself. There
are good arguments for and against the EU. But what matters for Scotland is
having the same EU status as the other parts of the UK. If the UK were a member
like it was in 2014 it would be difficult for Scotland not to be a member. But
if the UK is not a member, as now, it would be difficult for Scotland to be a
member.
Like it or not we have been part of the UK for 300
years. The parts of the UK are closely aligned socially and economically, much
more so that we are with the EU. It is little bother to any of us if we have to
show our passports when going on holiday to Spain or change pounds into Euros,
to have to do the same while travelling from Edinburgh to Newcastle would be
intolerable. No one wants lorries travelling from Scotland to England to have
to pass through customs or to switch currency if we buy something from
Amazon.UK.
But we learned something much worse than this on
Monday when Sturgeon presented her latest plan. Scotland on becoming
independent would not immediately be able to apply for EU membership. It would
be years if not decades before it could do so.
Sturgeon admitted that Scotland would need its own
currency before it could apply for EU membership. I don’t think Scottish
nationalists have quite grasped why or what this would involve.
The reason Scotland would need its own currency is
that there are rules for new member states. They have to adopt the Copenhagen
Criteria which involves the Euro convergence criteria and then the Exchange
Rate Mechanism (ERM).
At this point Scottish nationalists point out
correctly that there are lots of EU countries that still have their own
currency. This is true. Some have opt outs. Some simply choose not to go to the
next step of joining the Euro. The EU for political reasons allows them to do
so. It is perfectly possible that Scotland too would be allowed to never
actually join the Euro. But the Euro is a vital part of the EU’s plan for ever
increasing integration and it is going to become ever harder for new member
states to promise to join the Euro without meaning it.
The idea for instance that the UK could rejoin the EU
without joining Schengen or the Euro and keep Thatcher’s rebate is to misunderstand
how the EU negotiates.
But this in a way is beside the point. Whether you
intend to join the Euro or not you still have to prepare your economy to be in a
position to join the Euro before being able to join the EU. This is why the UK
joined the ERM. It is for this reason also
that Scotland would need its own currency before even applying.
Well let’s say we have a referendum in 2023. The SNP
wins. How long would it take for Scotland to become independent. In 2014 the
SNP thought it would need a year and a half. But it took the UK nearly four
years to leave the EU, so that might prove optimistic. But Scotland could not even
begin the process of applying for EU membership until it became an independent sovereign
state and at that point the EU would tell it, you need your own currency and to
be ready to join the Euro. So how long would that take?
The SNP plans to use sterling unofficially after
independence. This has nothing whatsoever to do with whether the pound is
Scotland’s or whether Scotland is entitled to use it. Mali, Myanmar and Mongolia
are entitled to use the pound if they wish to. It is a freely traded currency. But
while the Bank of England can print pounds these countries cannot and nor could
a Scottish central bank.
We don’t know how well sterlingisation would work. If
the Bank of England and the former UK failed to cooperate it might work very
badly indeed. If there were any sort of economic crisis Scotland might have to
move towards its own currency very quickly indeed. No advanced economy has ever
tried using a currency unofficially. But who knows it might work well for
Scotland.
The SNP says it might use the pound unofficially for
some years. But clearly moving towards our own currency would depend on
economic conditions that cannot be predicted now. So how long before we can
apply for EU membership? We’d be lucky to do so even ten years after a
referendum and then we’d have to fulfil the criteria of EU membership. How long
would that take? Another five years?
But this is the SNP’s problem. After independence it
could choose two routes. It could choose to align as closely as possible with
the former UK or it could choose to align as closely as possible with the EU. But
it would begin life both outside of the UK’s internal market and outside of the
EU’s Single Market. This would mean in theory that Scotland would face tariffs on
both our trade with the former UK and the EU.
Depending on how negotiations went with the former UK it
might be possible for Scotland to negotiate a very close relationship with the
former UK. Using sterling would imply this. The former UK might treat Scotland
similarly to how it treated the Irish Free State after independence. Irish
pounds and sterling had a one to one exchange rate until 1978.
The SNP would doubtless welcome a similar relationship,
open borders, mutual benefits, the right to live and work freely. Perhaps the
former UK would too. But after a few years the SNP would face a choice. Do we
give up our close relationship with the former UK in order to join the EU?
The benefit for Scotland of not being in the EU would
be that, depending on negotiations it could maintain open borders and free
trade with the UK. But as soon as Scotland applied for EU membership that close
relationship would begin to end.
This was the dilemma Ireland faced when joining the EC.
It joined with the UK in order to avoid a differing EC relationship damaging
its close alignment with the UK.
So, Scotland after a few years would face the choice
of going down the EU route or staying closely aligned with the former UK. But
the EU route would potentially involve the following:
1 Setting up a Scottish currency.
2 Applying for EU membership.
3 Promising to join the Euro.
4 Fulfilling the Copenhagen Criteria.
5 Joining the ERM.
6 Joining Schengen.
7 Adopting the Euro.
8 Applying customs and excise at the border with
England.
9 Introducing passport controls.
10 Giving up economic alignment with the former UK.
So how long would all that take? My guess is never. An
independent Scotland would never join the EU, because public opinion would
oppose the steps necessary to do so. The best option for an independent Scotland
would be to remain closely aligned with the former UK. This is implied with
using the pound unofficially. But if that is the best option, a still better
one is to remain a part of the UK, where we have fiscal transfers and currency
union.
But the logic of this is that Scotland would never
join the EU because doing so would be politically, economically and socially damaging
if not impossible.
I think the SNP is trying to kid disappointed Remainers
into thinking that Scottish independence is the easiest route back into the EU.
It isn’t. It’s far more likely that the UK as a whole would vote to rejoin the
EU than that Scotland would join if the former UK did not.
The Conservative Party has just been taken over by
Remainers. If Labour wins the next election there would be no opposition at all
to the UK going as a penitent to the EU saying we are the prodigal son have us
back. But I don’t think the UK would get a fatted calf rather it would get Schengen,
open borders and the Euro.
It would be amusing indeed if the SNP voted for independence
and found the former UK back in the EU while Scotland wasn’t.