Since February I have seen a lot of Ukrainian flags in
Scotland. It is right and proper that people of all political viewpoints
express support for a country that has been invaded brutally by its neighbour.
But I’ve noticed something else too, which I find rather tasteless. Ukrainian
flags are frequently being used to justify Scottish independence. This is both
ignorant and wrong. The SNP is giving aid and comfort to Ukraine’s enemy while
trying to destroy its greatest friend.
I think Scottish nationalists feel justified in
pairing Saltires with Yes on them with Ukrainian flags, because they see
Ukraine as an example of a place that achieved independence after leaving a
union, the USSR. But what they forget is that Ukraine now is a sovereign nation
state that is primarily trying to protect its territorial integrity. It opposes
the secession movements in the Donbas and Crimea. It does not think that the
people living in the Donbas or Crimea have the right to vote to leave Ukraine
even if the majority would like to.
Russia’s attitude to secession is entirely
hypocritical. It supports Scottish independence and recently the Russian press
and politicians have been using Nicola Sturgeon’s statements about a second
referendum to justify holding unofficial referendums in Crimea and the Donbas. The
argument goes if Scotland can hold a referendum without obtaining permission
from the Government of the United Kingdom, then there is no reason why Crimea
and the Donbas cannot do so too.
This argument naturally does not apply to Russia itself.
Russia would crush any independence movement within the Russian Federation like
it did in Chechnya. But it is very easy for Putin to apply Sturgeon’s argument to
Ukraine. Crimea voted unofficially to leave Ukraine. The poll may or may not
have been rigged, but there is little doubt that the majority of Crimeans would
choose to leave Ukraine if a poll was run fairly and legitimately. The Donbas
too could have an unofficial referendum in whatever part of it Putin conquers,
or alternatively it could turn an election into a de facto referendum.
If a devolved government can achieve independence by
means of an unsanctioned referendum or a General Election turned into a
referendum, then anywhere in the world can do likewise.
There are any number of secession movements of which
Scottish nationalists are blissfully unaware. There are Russians living in the
Baltic states, who would be delighted to rejoin Mother Russia. There are
Hungarians living in Slovakia and Romania who might like to rejoin Hungary. There
are Corsicans who would like to leave France and Austrians who would like to
leave Italy. They each have as good a claim to leave as Scotland does.
But most countries don’t think like the UK. They
absolutely forbid secession and would go to war to stop it. No one has ruled
out Scottish independence forever. The British Government has just said be
patient. You lost your referendum only 8 years ago. No one in Europe would have
given you a referendum in the first place.
There would be war in Europe if Sturgeon’s argument
applied everywhere, because Italy would fight to stop Austrians leaving and Romania
and Slovakia would fight to stop Hungarians seceding. There would be chaos the
world over as everyone refought ancient battles over borders.
The SNP argument not only undermines the position of
Ukraine that it has the right to defend its territorial integrity, it
undermines the idea that national sovereignty gives Ukraine the right to claim
all its territory even if the people in
a particular part vote to leave. The SNP undermines the very concept of
national sovereignty which Ukraine requires to justify its attempt to regain
the territory it has lost.
If Scotland or its people are sovereign and this is
more important than UK sovereignty then likewise Crimea can claim that its
people are sovereign and that this form of popular sovereignty justifies them
choosing to leave Ukraine and join Russia.
But not merely is Sturgeon undermining the Ukrainian
argument, she is furthering the foreign policy goals of Ukraine’s primary enemy
Russia. There is no doubt whatsoever that Putin would be delighted if the SNP
succeeded. The British Army, Royal Navy and RAF would cease to exist at least
in their present form if Scotland left the UK. They are British. Whatever succeeded them would require the
permission of the Scottish Government to be in Scottish territory airspace or waters.
The UK’s nuclear deterrent would have no base unless
it could negotiate the lease of Faslane. Sturgeon might want an independent
Scotland to join NATO, but its entirely unclear if SNP members would agree
given their historic hostility to it. We don’t know too if NATO would want a
Scotland that has just destroyed the UK.
The United Kingdom would become the Former United
Kingdom, there would be every expectation that Northern Ireland would soon
follow Scotland and perhaps Wales after that.
There are only two serious military forces in Europe,
France and the UK. Putin would have seen one of those diminished and perhaps neutralised.
What the USSR could not achieve during the Cold War would have been achieved by
the SNP alone.
The idea that present day Ukrainians would want to see
their primary European Ally, the UK, dismantled is preposterous. The idea that
they would delight in seeing Scottish nationalist flags flying next to their
own is as likely as their wanting to see the Russian flag flying alongside it.
Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP and Scottish nationalists in
general are giving aid and comfort to Ukraine’s enemy. Flying Ukraine’s flag in
those circumstances is not merely opportunism, it is morally contemptible.
