There is a moment in the Godfather when Vito Corleone
tells his rather dense son Sonny “Never tell anybody outside the family what
you’re thinking again.” He was right. The fact that Sonny revealed his opinion
leads directly to an assassination attempt on Don Corleone and indirectly to
Sonny’s death.
I was reminded of this when Nicola Sturgeon chose to reveal
her opinion about introducing a no fly zone in Ukraine. Sturgeon has no army,
no navy and no air force. The Scottish Parliament has no say whatsoever on
defence, nor indeed on foreign policy, but Sturgeon has been going beyond her
remit for years.
She acted as if Scotland were a member of the European
Union and was allowed by the EU to engage in low level international diplomacy.
She tries to act as if Scotland is already an independent sovereign nation
state rather than a part of one and now acts as if Scotland were a member of
NATO. She does these things for a reason.
Scottish nationalism depends on establishing that
Scotland already is what the SNP want it to become. The argument amounts to we
are independent so we ought to become independent. It is for this reason that Sturgeon
treats the visit of a British Prime Minister as if it were a visit from a foreign
power. The argument may be contradictory, but it is also effective. Most Scots
do think that Scotland is already a country just like France or Germany. It is
why asking them “Should Scotland be an independent country?" amounts to
should we be what we already are. After all our leader even has an opinion on
foreign affairs and how to help other independent countries like Ukraine.
But it is here that the SNP’s obsession with
independence becomes dangerous. Most of the time Sturgeon’s pretence that
Scotland is already an independent nation state is petty and harmless, but not
always.
If the members of the Corleone family had been united,
if they had not revealed any difference in opinion, then it might have been
possible to avoid the threat that developed to the family. So too if Remainers
and Scottish nationalists had accepted defeat in the 2016 and worked together
for the best possible deal for the UK, then the deal we achieved would have
been much improved. Sturgeon’s playing at foreign affairs harmed Britain and
did not bring her one step closer to independence.
The issue is far more deadly now. Britain’s dispute
with the EU was about competing interests, but the member states of the EU
remain our friends and allies. They are economic competitors but they are not
threatening us. Russia is threatening us.
The risk of nuclear war is still remote, but it is a
lot less remote than it was a few weeks ago. We must hope that the same rules
apply as they did in the Cold War. If not, we are in trouble. But those rules
limited the ability of NATO to act against Soviet aggression. Both sides went
to great lengths to avoid shooting at each other, because it might escalate a
conflict that was already dangerous enough.
It is understandable that Volodymyr Zelenskyy would
like a no fly zone like the ones that the West imposed in Bosnia, Libya and Iraq.
It would undoubtedly help Ukraine against Russia. It is understandable why
Sturgeon wants to play the dim brother role, Zelenskyy is popular. Sturgeon
hasn’t been on TV much lately. Sympathy with what the Ukrainian leader wants,
might increase support for Sturgeon and Scottish independence. But she is in
fact giving aid and comfort to Russia.
There is a reason why NATO has rejected a no fly zone.
It has intelligence in both senses of the word. Sources will be telling the
NATO command structure that a no fly zone risks escalating the conflict into a conflict
between NATO and Russia. The only way to enforce a no fly zone is to threaten
to shoot down Russian planes and mean it. We might also have to destroy Russian
air bases, radar stations and the facilities on which the Russian air force
depends.
But this is the equivalent of shooting border guards
in Berlin because we sympathised with those East Germans trying to escape. It’s
like shooting down Russian bombers testing UK defences as they approach the
coast of Scotland. It’s like sinking Russian ships in the Moray Firth. If this
is the SNP’s defence policy, while unilaterally getting rid of nuclear weapons
from Scotland, it isn’t going to end well. Perhaps our unbuilt ferries can take
on the Russian navy.
Those who threatened the Corleone family looked for
division, because that division could be exploited. It was for this reason Don
Corleone told his stupid son not to reveal his opinions in public. The Russians
too will be attempting to exploit division in the UK. They know that if only
Scotland could become independent, then one of three NATO nuclear powers would
be diminished. There would no longer be any need to worry about the British
armed forces, because they would have ceased to exist after three hundred years
of defeating almost everyone.
A divided UK would have to worry about its northern
flank. The former UK bases and radar stations in Scotland would belong to
someone else. The UK has played an important role in supporting Ukraine sending
weapons when Germany didn’t want them even to cross German territory. Putin
would be delighted if Sturgeon succeeded in breaking up Britain. Why else do
you think he was willing to fund Alex Salmond. It would be surprising if Putin’s
money has not been helping other Scottish nationalists.
I suspect if asked Zelenskyy would say that the most
helpful thing Sturgeon could do would be to abolish the SNP.
There are few real democracies in the world. We are
threatened by tyranny not merely in Russia, but also in China. We cannot afford
an idiot son who thinks that he is already Godfather. The UK can afford no
division at all, not from Remainers and not from Scottish nationalists. Disunity
now is dangerous.
Sturgeon should confine her comments to those areas that are controlled by the Scottish Parliament. She lacks the intelligence in both senses of the word to comment on anything else.
