If I go around knocking on doors collecting for a local
cancer charity, but it turns out the money is going to me, I am liable to be
convicted of fraud and might expect to spend some time in jail. If Nicola
Sturgeon asks independence supporters to provide money for an independence
campaign, but indyref2 doesn’t happen, yet the money raised is gone some might wonder
if for her next project she might produce an album called the Great Indy and
Ref Swindle. Pete Wishart could change his surname to Rotten, while her own
husband might reasonably adopt the surname Vicious to describe his text messages
about Mr Salmond.
The moral dilemmas about raising revenue however are
intricate. When in my office someone had the idea of paying for a goat instead
of everyone giving each other Christmas cards, I pointed out that there wasn’t
a goat. The twenty pounds that we paid to the charity might equally well go to
pay the wages of a secretary. Indeed, we might have to buy several thousand
goats in order to pay the salary of the chief executive. Were we being swindled
when we were encouraged to buy a goat which our money might not be used for?
My local cancer charity would also have administrative
costs. So long as most of the money raised went to helping cancer victims and only
some went on paying the cost of printing the leaflets, then there would be no
question of dishonesty. But what of the £600,000 the SNP raised to fight
indyref2? It wasn’t that some of the money bought metaphorical goats, while
some was used to pay the chief executive. Rather no goats were bought at all,
because there was no indyref2 and therefore no campaign.
When we pay National Insurance, most of us know that
there is in fact no insurance. The money that we pay does not go into a
separate fund that is used by a future government to pay our pensions and
benefits. Rather National Insurance is just a way of splitting the tax bill so
that it doesn’t seem quite so big. They money raised goes into the general pot,
is spent and it will be up to a future government to pay my pension out of revenue
raised then. Is the SNP’s raising the £600,000 the equivalent of us each paying
National insurance?
It is reasonable to assume that when I am old enough,
I will receive a pension. Every one prior to me has received one. So, what I am
paying for when I pay National Insurance I do indeed get, even if the specific
pounds I pay in National Insurance might go on something else. But the SNP were
raising money for something that might never happen. There is no way of
predicting if there will ever be an indyref2 campaign, because it depends on
the political fortunes of the SNP and the decision of the British Government.
When the SNP decided to raise money for an independence
campaign, it looked as if political momentum was with them, but shortly afterwards
at the 2017 General Election the SNP lost 21 seats and it’s share of the voted
declined 13.1% to 36.9%. That sort of percentage is hardly going to win a referendum,
so no wonder plans for indyref2 were shelved.
In 2020 support for independence increased and once
more there was a lot of talk about independence and indyref2. Nicola Sturgeon
would demand a second referendum just as soon as the pandemic was over. But
what about the money that had been raised for the campaign prior to its being
called off in 2017? Well, we don’t know exactly what happened to it, but it is reasonable
to suppose that the SNP used it for its campaigning. It could reasonably argue
that the only way to get to an indyef2 campaign would be if the SNP won lots of
seats at Holyrood and Westminster.
The SNP could point out that just like National
Insurance, there would be no problem so long as the £600,000 was spent in the
future, even if it had been used for other things in the past. But the SNP as a
political party unlike a government has to raise money through donations. It
cannot or at least ought not to tax the Scottish people to raise money for its
political campaigns.
But here we have a problem. Let’s say in two years’
time, support for independence is once more high and the SNP is demanding Indyref2
and it appeals to its supporters to give it a campaign fund. Let’s say these
supporters raise £600,000. Problem solved say the SNP. We now have the £600,000
to spend. But what if I had previously contributed to the campaign fund? I
would reasonably expect there now to be £1,200,000. Unless the SNP has another
source of revenue it cannot make up £600,000 by appealing again for the same
thing. It could appeal for more SNP members, or it could increase the
membership fee, but it can hardly appeal for a new indyref2 campaign fund after
spending the previous fund, that would be to treat its supporters as fools.
Independence has become like socialism. It is something
that Labour traditionally promised but was never quite able to deliver. Nicola
Sturgeon has promised indyref2 so often that she has become the little girl who
cried indyref2. The Great Indy & Ref Swindle is unlikely to see anyone
prosecuted. This is Scotland. The lesson we learned from the Alex Salmond scandal
was that no one was prosecuted and moreover it had no consequences whatsoever
at the ballot box. If you vote for scandal, don’t be surprised when you get
more.
Two huge scandals in the same year. No problem say the
Murrells. If they can survive Salmond, they can certainly survive this. But the
deep pockets of Scottish nationalists, which can fund bloggers, a newspaper, and
a near continual independence campaign because independence is just around the
corner, may become rather less deep when they realise that it isn’t.
Before the Scottish Parliament election there was endless
talk of forcing indyref2, holding an unofficial poll or even doing something
illegal. This feverishness raises party revenue and wins SNP seats, but it
looks less than honest now when we pocket the seats and the power but put off
indyref2 until another day. This pattern has been going on since 2014.
As All under one Banner begins marching again, I
wonder if they realise that they are being marched to the top of the hill and
then down again. The Grand Old Duchess of Dreghorn once more plays the Great
Indy and Ref Swindle on the turntable.