The United Kingdom almost uniquely in the world is threatened by secession. Some people such as Nick Timothy and Gordon Brown have proposed federalism as a solution. But in order to understand a solution it is first necessary to understand the problem.
Northern Ireland is threatened with secession, which
some hope would lead to Irish unity, because of the Belfast/Good Friday
Agreement (1998). This gives Irish nationalists a legal route to achieve their
goal by means of referendums in Northern Ireland and Ireland. The reason we
have this agreement is because of the IRA bombing campaign that sought to
achieve a united Ireland militarily. This failed, but the price of peace was
that the IRA could achieve its goal electorally.
In Scotland the reason we have a threat of secession
is because Scotland was granted devolution after voting for it in 1997. Prior
to that the SNP was a small party with no serious prospects of success. Support
for independence was low, similar to in Wales today. After devolution support
for the SNP gradually increased until it was able to ask for an independence referendum
that took place in 2014. The campaign for impendence itself increased support
for independence by giving Scottish nationalists for the first time in
centuries a real prospect of success. A goal supported by a minority of 25%
became one supported by 44%. Suddenly what had been impossible became possible
with one more try. The SNP became the dominant force in Scotland and the threat
since 2014 of another independence referendum has been constant.
Wales has perhaps the best claim to independence because
it is the only part of the UK where a language other than English is widely
spoken. It is easy to imagine Welsh people responding to Scottish independence
or Irish unity by asking for something similar.
There is no serious secession movement in England.
While English people have been accused of nationalism because of Brexit almost
no one in England supports English independence and no serious party supports it.
The difficulty for the secession movements in the UK
is that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland depend on large financial
transfers from the UK Government and most people living in these places wish to
retain the rights that they have at present because they are British citizens.
The British economy which benefits people living everywhere in the UK depends
on maintaining the UK’s internal market and the fiscal transfers that go with
us all using the pound as our currency.
If independence were shown to create hard borders
between the parts of the UK, disrupt trade, prevent free movement and lead to
the loss of using the pound as part of currency union then secessionists
everywhere would be less likely to vote for it.
The UK is a unitary state with devolution. The
devolved parliaments are subordinate to Westminster. Federalism would give the
devolved parliaments parity with the federal government. The federal parliament
might deal with issues that are now reserved to Westminster (macroeconomics,
foreign policy, the constitution etc), while the state parliaments, including
an English parliament would control everything else.
By its nature federalism would increase the powers of
the state parliaments because they would no longer be subordinate. Devolution
can only take place in a unitary state as to devolve logically means to give to
a subordinate. But we already know that devolution has increased the demand for
independence. Scottish nationalists reflected if we can run a devolved
parliament why can’t we run an independent one. Well if they could run a
federal parliament which is no longer subordinate, they would still more wish
to take the next step. The SNP and its supporters would simply bank any new
powers and ask for more.
The fundamental problem with federalism is that it
does nothing in itself to stop secession. If Northern Ireland had a state
parliament, Irish nationalists would still want Irish unity.
Scottish nationalists would respond to the Scottish
Parliament becoming elevated by federalism by immediately asking for
independence. The state parliament in Edinburgh would be on a par with the UK
federal parliament and would take even less kindly to being denied a referendum
on independence than it does at present.
England for the first time in centuries would have its
own parliament and with the majority of the British population would consider
itself more important than tiny Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The
English electorate would be almost as big as the UK electorate and would
immediately be a rival to the federal parliament. What right would the federal
parliament have to boss England about?
England has been immune to nationalism and thoughts of
secession precisely because it has not had devolution. Giving England a state
parliament would almost immediately give rise to the English National Party
(ENP) with perhaps a new role for Mr Farage.
Federalism could only work in the UK if secession was
made illegal in a written constitution. But unless federalism got rid of the
Belfast Agreement and along with it the Northern Ireland Protocol, secession
would still be legal in the UK. If Northern Ireland could leave the UK federation,
why not Scotland and Wales?
As a unitary state fiscal transfers make sense, but as
a federal state why should money primarily raised by taxation in the south of
England be used to increase the budgets of state parliaments in Wales, Northern
Ireland and Scotland? The demand from the English state parliament to keep
English taxes in England would increase.
But it would do almost as much damage to the UK
economy if Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland failed to receive funding from
the Treasury as if they voted for independence. These economies would crash,
and England would get the blame. If Scotland raised all its own revenue and
received nothing from the Treasury there would hardly any longer be an economic
argument for being part of the UK. All that would be left would be the pound,
the army, foreign policy and free movement of people to hold us together.
Worse if living standards decreased in Scotland, Wales
and Northern Ireland meaning public spending, health and benefits declined then
many people would be tempted to move to England and make it even more crowded
than it already is.
The United Kingdom cannot become a federation so long
as the people in its four parts think of themselves as living in countries
which already have the characteristics of a sovereign nation state. It is this
that destabilises the UK at present leading to demands for independence. A
federal UK state would be seen as a confederation with the parts superior to
the UK parliament rather than equal. But the UK has just left such a
confederation (the EU) and the UK state parliaments especially the English one
would view the UK federal parliament as lacking legitimacy especially if each
part of the UK were given equal representation thus outnumbering England though
England raised the most taxes and had the most population.
If the goal is unity, we are not going to achieve it
by giving still more powers to the devolved parliaments. This is the source of
the problem rather than the solution. Federalism only works where secession is forbidden,
and the states are required to cease thinking of themselves as countries. But
if this could be done with federalism it could equally well be done without it.
Federalism by itself would not stop secession, would decrease our unity and
would cause problems that even devolution has not given us such as a rise in
English nationalism. Gordon Brown (devolution) and Nick Timothy (the election
of 2017) might be better reflecting on their own failures before making the
problem of UK unity still worse.