While Nicola Sturgeon condemns violence in Washington
and Trump supporters invading the Capitol, it is worth remembering that while
democracy is not under threat in the USA, it is under threat in Scotland by her
supporters and her MPs and MSPs.
The United States has become more divided this year than
at any time since 1860. Protestors on the Left have taken over areas of American
cities and have vandalised statues and other property. Protestors on the Right have
responded in kind. But neither is an immediate threat to American democracy. Within
a short time, there will be a new President. Free and fair elections will
continue to take place across America.
Trump has many faults and some insights. I thought he
was right about China and right about some aspects of the American economy. He
was right too not to involve America in any foreign wars. But he was wrong not to
accept defeat. If you are going to challenge a result, then you have to put
forward credible evidence that convinces neutrals and opponents. To suppose
that Trump won the election is to suppose that the whole American judiciary,
media and vast numbers of ordinary Americans conspired against him. This is a
conspiracy theory too far.
By his continual failure to accept defeat Trump has damaged
the Republican Party and is in part responsible for the violence in Washington,
but it has not damaged democracy, because Trump will be gone in a few days and
Government of the people, by the people and for the people will not have
perished, it will have defeated the mob.
But in Scotland we still face the mob. We still have
people who think that marching and demonstrating is the way to bring about
their goals. We still have people who want to subvert the democratic rules if
those rules hinder them.
At some point this year there will probably be an election
to the Scottish Parliament, though it may be delayed. If Scottish nationalists
win a majority it is likely that the British Government will refuse a second
independence referendum on the grounds that we had such a referendum in 2014
and the issue has been decided decisively and cannot be revisited for some time
perhaps until 2055.
There is no question that the British Government would
be acting democratically and legally. The American Government would respond in the
same way if a part of the United States asked for a referendum on secession. If
Trump supporters waving Confederate flags argued once that they voted for Trump
and got Biden and used this to justify the independence of South Carolina or
any other state, American democracy would once more defeat the illegitimate mob
so that Government of the people (Lincoln meant the whole people) would
prevail.
But democracy and following due legal process is not
enough for Scottish nationalists. Since 2014 they have become just as fanatical
and cranky as Trump supporters. They are still unwilling to accept that they
lost decisively in 2014.
How do Scottish nationalists wish to respond to a refusal
on the part of the British Government to give them what they want? The most fanatical
wish to turn the Scottish Parliament election into a de facto referendum on
Scottish independence. They argue that if independence supporting parties win a
majority, then the Scottish Parliament should simply declare itself to be
independent.
This would be illegitimate democratically because the
Scottish Parliament is a devolved assembly which lacks the legal power over matters
reserved to the British Parliament, which include foreign relations and the constitution.
The act of declaring itself independent would therefore be an act of rebellion,
no different logically from when the Confederacy declared itself independent
from the United States.
What consequences would such an act of rebellion have
in Scotland? The immediate consequence would be that Scotland would be independent
straight away. There could be no transition period following such an illegal act.
There could be no divorce negotiations. From the moment the Scottish Parliament
declared itself to be independent, there would be no more money from the
British Treasury, so there would be no furlough and no more support for
Scottish businesses. There would be no vaccine, because that has been bought
for the United Kingdom, not for a breakaway Scotland.
We would immediately find ourselves both outside the
UK and the EU, with no trade deals with anyone. We would lack the means to
raise taxes and pay benefits. Worse because we had broken the rule of law, we
would have no means of even entering into negotiations with the EU, because
adherence to the rule of law is an entry requirement. The Scottish economy
would crash, and I strongly suspect there would be a mass exodus leaving only
the fanatics.
It is staggering that a significant number of independence
supporters have become so fanatical that they would entertain such a scheme.
They have lost all connection not merely with legality and democracy but with
reality itself.
There is just as big a divide in Scotland as in the
United States. We are more than at any time since the 1640s when Covenanters
took on Royalists. There is a dangerous lack of consensus in Scotland and if anything,
it is getting worse.
Other only slightly less fanatical SNP MPs and MSPs
favour finding different ways to subvert the law if the British Government
blocks a second independence referendum. They have various schemes of holding
an advisory referendum or trying to find ways to make British democracy
unworkable. But each of the means they suggest amounts to an act of rebellion
against the rules which were established when the Scottish Parliament was set
up.
It is perfectly legitimate both democratically and legally
for the British Government to refuse a referendum on independence. There is
hardly a country in the world that would fail to support such a decision,
because it corresponds to the norms of international law. A part of a nation
state (whether it calls itself a country or not), simply does not have either
the democratic or legal right to secede.
This means that large numbers of SNP MPs and MSPs are advocating
rebellion against democracy and legality if they don’t get what they want. But
this is no different to what Trump supporters are trying to do by storming the Capitol.
SNP MSPs who attempt to subvert British democracy by whatever means would be storming
the Scottish Parliament waving metaphorical Confederate flags while stating
that they wished to Make Scotland Great Again. They and their supporters would
be a mere mob and it would be the duty of all supporters of British democracy
to thwart them.
If the Scottish Parliament elections are postponed, the
SNP will have no mandate. It will have expired. There are three sensible
options. Either there should be a caretaker Government with high level representation
from all the main parties, or there should be rule by civil servants, or there
should be a return to direct rule until the Covid crisis is over.
At this point it should be made clear that the
Scottish Parliament will only ever reopen when it declares itself to be willing
to operate within the rules of the devolution settlement, which make it clear that
independence is not the business of the Scottish Parliament and gives up all
fantasies of rebellion.
We can no more allow a mob of Scottish nationalists to
subvert democracy than America can allow Trump supporters to take the law into
their own hands. It is the same principle at stake in Scotland and in the USA.
