The Conservative manifesto promised that there would
not be a second Scottish independence referendum. The Conservatives won a large
majority. That should be the end of the matter. But this being Scotland it isn’t.
Independence is the bone Nicola Sturgeon is the dog. Scottish nationalists will teach their toddlers
that “No means No” or else raise spoilt brats. Young independence supporting
women will go on demonstrations asserting that “No means No” and people will
sometime go to jail for failing to take no for an answer, but nationalism always
has the threat of violence in it. If we don’t get our way, we will take matters
into our own hands. It is for this reason that nationalism so frequently does give
rise to violence.
There is in human nature clearly both the desire for
unity and the desire separation. It is for this reason that nation states form
from groups of similar people and also why these groups sometimes break apart.
There are therefore numerous examples of secession nationalism (Croatia, Latvia)
and unification nationalism (Germany, Italy). Wishing to maintain the
territorial integrity of your nation state of course is not nationalism at all.
To suggest it is merely shows a wilful misunderstanding of the word “nationalism”.
There are no nationalists in the secession sense,
because secession is simply not an option. The last state capital that tried to
secede was burned to the ground in 1865. Every American school child pledges
allegiance to one nation indivisible. If any state had a state election asking
for a referendum on independence, it would not be granted for the simple reason
that such a referendum would be illegal, the issue would be outside the
competence of that state’s legislature and if it chose to attempt to assert its
independence anyway its state capital would be burned to the ground.
What is different about Scotland? The main reason that
nationalism exists here is possibility. Twenty or thirty years ago Scottish independence
was a non-issue. Only a few obsessives were interested. No one went on marches.
Two things changed this. The Scottish Parliament and the independence
referendum campaign. These both gave rise to the sense that Scottish independence
was possible. It first requires the idea that something is possible before
people even begin to think about whether it is desirable.
The Scottish Parliament ought to have acted as a way
of giving people control over local matters. It need not have fuelled nationalism.
After all devolution doesn’t fuel nationalism everywhere. There is next to no
desire for independence either in parts of Germany or parts of the USA.
The reason the Scottish Parliament fuels nationalism
is because Scottish independence is considered to be possible and the Scottish
Parliament is deemed to have the right to decide on this issue. This is why so
many Scots vote for the SNP both at General Elections and at elections for the
Scottish Parliament. They think doing so makes Scottish independence more likely.
But it ought not.
The Scottish Parliament only has the right to decide
on devolved issues. It cannot declare war on Texas, for the same reason Texas
cannot declare war on Scotland. Matters of defence are not devolved issues. But
so too constitutional matters are explicitly outside the competence of the
Scottish Parliament. But you cannot logically have a manifesto commitment to
something that is outside your control, nor can you have a vote on it, nor can
you pass laws or decide to do anything else.
It therefore doesn’t matter if the SNP put into their
2021 manifesto that they want permission for a second independence referendum.
It doesn’t matter if they win all the votes and all the seats. It wouldn’t
matter after all if they put into their manifesto that they wanted to annex the
Isthmus of Panama, because it once belonged to Scotland and it ought to be independent
again and belong to us. The SNP can logically only put into their manifesto at
a General Election that they want permission to have an independence referendum,
but they would then have to persuade an overall majority of MPs to agree with
them.
The reason so many Scottish journalists are confused
about this is either because they are Scottish nationalists or because they
sympathise with Scottish nationalism or because they are scared to contradict
their SNP masters. But nonetheless this is peculiar because these same journalists
almost universally admire the EU.
How many EU member states would allow a legal referendum
on independence for one of its parts? Many EU member states forbid referendums
in general, others have made clear that they would never allow independence movements
to succeed. No EU member state has split up into independent parts, though a
number have done so before joining. The EU is opposed to member states
splitting up in this way. It is for this reason that it sided with Spain and
gave zero support to Catalan independence supporters.
The EU clearly involves a process of unification
similar to that which Germany underwent in the nineteenth century. It is
already practically impossible for Eurozone members to leave. The EU did its
very best to prevent Britain from leaving. The end point of ever closer union
will make it virtually impossible for EU member states to leave. At that point
they will cease to be independent in any meaningful sense. The relationship of
Germany to the EU will be as Saxony at present is to Germany. Each will be
formerly independent states that now cannot leave.
Those Scottish journalists who support the EU while arguing
that the Scottish Parliament has the right to decide if it wants independence understand
neither devolution nor the EU.
There should never have been a first Scottish
independence referendum. David Cameron should simply have pointed out that independence
was outside the remit of the Scottish Parliament. It is an issue about which
this parliament cannot even have an opinion. He should have then told the SNP
that when they win a majority at Westminster, they can have their referendum. It
is the possibility of independence alone that means the SNP are uninterested in
devolved issues. The SNP will only take seriously what is within their competence
(schools, hospitals etc), when it is carefully explained to them that Scottish
independence is outwith your control.