Friday, 21 September 2018

All behind you Theresa


There is something peculiar about the EU and its member states. They want the UK to defend them if they are threatened militarily. They want us to come to their rescue if their banks fail or their single currency gets into trouble. Yet they think they can treat our democracy with contempt by telling us to vote again and they expect us to do their bidding because they are making it hard for us to leave. They think they can humiliate our Prime Minister and we’ll love them for it.  I don’t think they have any understanding at all of the British mentality.


I have been fairly critical of Theresa May lately. I thought her Chequers plan was worse than remaining in the EU. It would have tied the UK to mimicking the EU’s Single Market and Customs Union more or less forever, which in fact would have been more beneficial to the EU than to us. After all they trade more with us than we do with them. We would have had to follow EU rules with no say whatsoever in the forming of them, which would have made it difficult, perhaps impossible to form trade deals with anyone else. For the privilege of doing this we would have to pay something close to forty billion pounds. Yet even this wasn’t enough. The EU would like to keep the security that Britain provides, but they don’t want to cooperate with us on Brexit one little bit.

We’re now at an impasse. The EU offers either a free trade deal like Canada’s, but this would not apply to Northern Ireland, which would remain in the customs union, and in effect in the EU. Alternatively the EU offers that the whole of the UK could remain in the Single Market and Customs Union, like Norway. This would make it impossible for us to limit free movement from the EU.

No nation state would allow a foreign power to impose a border between one of its parts and the others. This is the sort of thing you go to war to defend your country against. The British people likewise made it absolutely clear that we wanted to be able to control immigration.

Theresa May has said that she is unwilling to change on these issues. I hope that she means what she says. Far too often lately she has talked firmly only to later change her position. This is the main reason why so many Conservative MPs and supporters have lost confidence in her. But if she has sense she can still turn the situation around.

Now is the moment to appeal to the British people. We face an important moment in our history. The EU wants to damage Britain. They want us to be humiliated and to come creeping meekly, begging to get back into their club. If we did so we would, no doubt, have to pay more even than we do now, but far worse than that, who would ever think of us as a serious power from then on? Can you imagine the loss of confidence that would hit our country if we tried to break free from the EU, but couldn’t manage? Long term this would damage us far more than anything that might happen next March.

The crucial thing to realise is that the leaders of the countries that gathered to humiliate Theresa May in Salzburg are not our friends. They don’t want what is best for the UK. They don’t want our relationship to be mutually beneficial, rather they want the UK to be worse off.

The EU, and all the countries that make up its membership, is now a hostile power. We should have nothing against the citizens who live there, but let’s be honest about it, they wish us harm. So let us begin behaving accordingly.

Britain has to look elsewhere for our friends. We must prioritise making alliances with those countries that think like we do and speak the same language as we do. More generally we should make friends only with those who want a reciprocally beneficial relationship.

We have six months to prepare for no deal. This is not a long time. But it is a lot longer than we have had previously to prepare for far more difficult situations.

If Theresa May doesn’t get a positive response to her post Salzburg statement from the EU in a very short time she should end the uncertainty and declare negotiations have concluded. She should sack the Chancellor and appoint someone who actually believes in Brexit and is willing to do what it takes to make it succeed. The forty Billion pounds that was to have gone to the EU should instead be used to prepare for leaving the EU without a deal and for compensating any businesses that might be in danger of losing out.

The EU would respond to this with absolute fury. They would threaten us with this that and the other. This would still more clearly show that they were not our friends. Why should we defend and buy so much from those who dislike us?

The UK should turn itself away from Europe. A no deal Brexit would give us the freedom to undercut the EU in terms of business rates and in terms of efficiency. We could offer a tariff free deal with anyone who wanted it. Let us buy our cars and our wine from new friends rather than from those who hate us.

If Theresa May appeals to British patriotism and calls for unity and a common struggle in the months ahead, we will be fine. It’s time for some defiance. In a few years we will look back on these months as another example of how we have stood up to tyranny and triumphed.

I can think of few more unpopular Prime Ministers than Theresa May, but she has the chance to make history forget the mistakes that she has already made. All it would take is one rousing speech to the Conservative Party conference offering nothing but blood, sweat and tears and we’d all get behind her, because it would be worth it. There is glory to be had in making a success of Brexit, let us grasp it.

41 comments:

  1. Teresa May the worst Prime Minister in living memory, not an epitaph she would have wanted to be remembered by.

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  2. Yet another good piece Effie, succinctly put.

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  3. They have not told us to gave another ref, like as their idea, that's a distortion. When a homegrown campaign for one already exists, the leader of one other EU member has commented supportively on it. That's different, that's just reaction to the state of our own politics.

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  4. They have mistaken our politeness for weakness which is wrong. I am furious at how they behaved in Saltzberg as they too are cherry picking. They want our military, GCHQ and our money. An article in the French Press indicated that Macron was behind the move. His polling is 19% - worse than Hollande so he is trying to rouse the French against the UK.

    I should add that I have always been pro European and I voted Remain - my husband voted leave. We did our own research and came to our own conclusions. I feel insulted when EU leaders make assumptions that somehow my husband was hoodwinked by liars. If there was another vote I would this time vote leave as I do not want to belong to a club that gangs up on one member. I am being petty but I intend to change a lifetime of purchasing habits such as changing my VW every three years and always purchasing Miele white goods, French wine and cheese etc etc. I will do my utmost to purchase goods made in the UK. Silly and pathetic statement I know but it will make me feel better.

    Your article was pertinent and as always fair and balanced.

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  5. What a wonderful piece of diplomacy by Donald Tusk, the comment re “plan won’t work for EU" and instagram re cherries have managed in one swoop to unite remain and brexiteers. Great negotiator.

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  6. TM has done well. Too many traitors in her own camp. Shame on them all! We must show true British spirit and not become door mats to the out of date EU. Time to get out at any cost I would say. Lets prepare for a No Deal Brexit and forge new more respectful links from our friends around the world. Lets leave the EU to is stumbling careless and nasty existence and we will watch it all fall apart in due course.

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  7. That great british irishman sir terry wogan put it best when he said of europe" twice we have saved them from fascism, and they have never forgiven us for it". Its well past the time to tell the eu to take a flying f**k

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  8. Problem is, she will make a powerful conference speech appealing for all of us to get behind her Chequers capitulation.

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  9. A few facts, expressed in sobriety, could help this discussion bear wholesome fruit.

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  10. Everything good except for three words 'if Theresa May'...

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  11. Within the next 3 to 6 months, something amazing is going to happen. Possibly one or more of, but not limited to:

    PM resignation.
    General election.
    Corbyn premiership.
    2nd EU referendum.
    Brexit postponed.
    Brexit scrapped.
    Hard brexit on WTO rules.
    A last minute sweetheart deal to avoid carnage on both sides of the channel (still the outcome I would bet on even in these dark days).

    We just have to hope that, whatever happens, the SNP are unable to capitalise on it to secure independence.

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    1. Scotland will be dropped as an issue the moment mother England is under pressure.... Your dream of a warm union will only last as long as they can be bothered.

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  12. The first fact is that there is no massive anti-British alliance. There is not even a minor one. Far from being anti-British, most European governments are not even interested in Brexit. The issue is rarely in the news the other side of the Channel, and has hardly ever made the lead story. The UK is, quite simply, not that important.

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  13. Another fact is that advocates of Brexit are unable to agree among themselves on the definition of this measure, his easy it will be to implement, and what benefits (if any) will accrue from it. Many now admit that the effects will be highly deleterious, but that it will be worth it. Quite what the it which all the disruption and privation will be worth may be we have yet to be informed.

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    1. Control of our laws and borders.

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    2. Which laws ? If its a bonfire of environmental and employment law then the pitchforks won't be long in making an appearance.

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    3. You are right, Running. The UK, out of over 3,500 votes, has been outvoted 50 times. On the legislation passed jointly by 28 Member States, the UK has been calling shots with merry abandon. Many of the people behind Brexit are now admitting their true motive: to undo the social reforms of the past six generations.

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    4. Yet another fact is that advocates of Brexit see no need to try and win over opponents by reasoned argument, let alone allay their very legitimate concerns. In this, they are quite unlike their equivalents in Norway, who set out to reach a workable compromise with which both sides could live. If unprincipled bigots call us saboteurs, you can rest assured that we will *not* let ourselves be crushed.

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    5. Aldo is indulging in the old sophistical trope of avoiding the question by repeating an empty slogan (which in any event is as mendacious as it could be: neither borders or laws have ever been at stake). While I am disappointed, I cannot claim to be surprised.

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    6. A further fact is that support for Brexit, as the inaccuracies (I am on my best drawing-room behaviour here) are exposed, the consequences of tearing up solemn obligations are considered, and the demographics shift, is rapidly ebbing away. If those supporting the project wish actually to implement it, they will have to present clear goals that threaten no more damage to the fabric of economy and society, and offer some amelioration sooner than the fifty years that Mr. Jacob Rees-Mogg thinks it droll to ask us to wait. They will also need to repudiate the hatred and bigotry which has lent so much force to their campaign up to now. Unless they change they recognize facts without delay, I cannot see how any of the 57 Varieties of Brexit currently being peddled will ever happen.

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    7. I'm of the mind that they are looking to let it happen by just talking it out, a reverse filibuster if you like. If as has been said many of these fiends are taking reverse positions on UK assets then they want as hard and bad a brexit as possible....

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  14. Loving the blood and guys calls of the armchair Brits. Makes me laugh.

    I would not put it past Nicola to miss the chance but I doubt Mother Theresa has her eye on Scotland when her job is in the gun sight.

    Having been in Europe throughout most of this , Simon's take is most accurate. On the whole the Europeans are looking and wrinkling their noses at the stupid Brits. The idea that BMW will save them from themselves might be a nice thought but I don't see it happening.

    WTO deal will be enough to fracture the UK into pieces in a short time. The Tories will not live to see it through for sure.

    Interesting times, my advice to you all is have Dollars and Euros as insurance....

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  15. God save us from a Corbyn PM....my god the man is death warmed up. Utterly bereft of leadership, make Theresa look statesman like. A feat neither she nor anyone in her party are able to replicate.

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    1. THt still mkesss both him nd Teres better thn the evil old itch Nicol Sturgeon. She is so thick she ctully beliees the likes o Germny ould vie n 'independent' Scotlnd s neul prtner in their prisoner of ntionl 'club' clled the EU.

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    2. Sorry I don't speak Serbo-Croat. Are you perhaps Welsh ?

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    3. Corbyn has no principles. He says he'll bend to the will of the membership on the matter of EU ref 2. That's not what a leader does. Also, if you find yourself in a party where about 90% of your comrades disagree with you on a fundamental issue, perhaps you shouldn't be in that party, let alone leading it!

      I also get the impression that Corbyn is just a harmless looking front for something extreme / evil that has captured the Labour party.

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    4. Labour keeping up the smoke and mirrors on whether you get a vote or not....

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  16. Effie, the present PM is bout s much use s chocolte firegurd ns she is being fr too soft ith our so-clled EU 'pretners'. If it ere me I ould go to ton on them by sying ll EU migrnts here must leve (prt from POrtugess ones s e hve the orld's longest-stnding llince ith tht country) nd by compulsoring ntionising BM@s fctorires in this country etc.


    Filing tht, it is time to mke use of our very expensive nucler epsons ie TRident nd nuke the continent. This is the only lngugre the SCUM cross the chnnel understnd nd e could cll it the 'FInl SOLUTION TO THE EUROPEn PROBLEM'

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  17. I'm a unionist, but still think this quote from the National is right - explaining why the EU's line is not just arrogance the way Effie has perceived. Consider:
    In May's storybook fantasy, Britain could strike a fabulous trade deal while locking its doors on EU migrants.
    But the EU leaders were never going to allow that to happen. The last thing they need is for the Prime Minister to strut around proclaiming a glorious victory, whipping up a frenzy of British nationalism. Such an outcome would guarantee to fan the flames of the far-right forest fires now sweeping the continent. With the next Euro election taking place just 3 months after Brexit, racist parties across Europe would run amok if the EU could provide proof that racism delivers national prosperity.

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    1. Shock horror you read the National, you'd be better off reading the Dandy or the Beano they are/were better comics. oh we already have a racist party in Scotland lea by the current First Minister.

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  18. The problem for the EU is that it has overstretched itself. It needs hard cash to bail out the basket cases and former Soviet hell holes. That money can only really come from Germany, France and Britain. The British position ought to be we'll keep paying into the pot - we'll give you the 39 billion and then some - if only if we get a trade deal very close to what we have now, minus free movement. Give us that and you get the money. Give us nothing and you get nothing - and the Germans and French will have to dig deeper into their pockets to sustain the sh1teholes.

    A deal will be done in the end. But we've got months of macho crap to go through first. It's the European way - grab your balls and shout the odds for a while but then capitulate at the first sign of trouble.

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    1. Starting to feel a bit tight time wise......I'm already working on my Plan B.

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  19. There are several more facts I could rehearse, but I shall confine my discourse to one.
    It is plain that the advocates of Brexit have given no thought to the consequences in Ireland. There is already growing uncertainty, leading to anxiety and fear. If the Good Friday Agreement unravels, there is no knowing how easily events could slide out if control. This will hurt unionists just as much ascit hurts nationalists and those who are indifferent.

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    1. They care only for themselves , a poll previously of Brexit voters said they would rather have Brexit than retain NI. At a quite extraordinary 68%.....

      Most of the dullards who voted Brexit do not understand what awaits them. They are at the bottom of the rung, they'll get most of the pain. Then they'll continue to blame faceless foreigners and worship the MayBot or Corbyn.

      I'm currently maxing out my Euro and Dollar assets in preparation for the fire sale in 24/36 months.

      I'm tempted to switch my UK investments but suspect a major GBP devaluation will boost FTSE value as most companies will see jump in revenue and profits due to foreign transactions. I'm also conscious that they might swing a deal that is an empty Brexit at the last minute. Only if brighter minds can be found to blink first in the UK.

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    2. I fear that there may be something in what you say. My constant prayer is that somebody among the advocates of Brexit will awaken to the dangers in Ireland. Should thus ill-considered venture trigger a new round if disturbances, there is no reason to suppose that they would remain confined over there.

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    3. The food nonsense seems to be overshadowing the Irish question at the moment. Feels like its getting close to an inflection point.

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  20. More magical thinking from Ms. Deans I'm afraid. Effie and those who think like her and agree with her world view may indeed be ready for some defiance, heed her call for some British patriotism and sincerely believe that "we" will all get behind Theresa May if she offers "blood, sweat and tears" because there's glory to be had. But the rest of us....? Not so much!

    However much of a true believer you are, it's worth bearing in mind that only 52% voted for brexit. Of that narrow majority, very many were specifically in favour of remaining in the Single Market and Customs Union. The idea that there is a majority, let alone an overwhelming majority, for a No Deal or Hard brexit is breathtaking in its presumption and naivete. May can barely keep her own party from tearing itself apart over brexit, still less carry the majority of the British populace with her.

    The idea that the Scots, who voted 62% to Remain (and who, recent polls tell us, are now even more in favour of Remain no than in 2016) or the Northern Irish, will simply accept whatever Frankenstein's monster of an agreement May manages to negotiate, or worse still a No Deal brexit, is for the birds. British nationalists should at least be honest enough to admit that they would sacrifice the Union they purport to hold so dear on the altar of brexit in a nano-second rather than stay in the EU or the EEA. It's most unlikely you can have both the splendid isolation the brextremists crave and the continuation of the Union.

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    1. They just appointed a minister for food shortages......

      They also published a travel advisory stating any air travel beyond Brexit date could be subject to disruption....

      Pack up your troubles in your old kit bag......Its a long way to Tipperary....

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  21. Nothing has changed.

    NOTHING has changed.

    NOTHING HAS CHANGED!

    There will be adequate food.

    This is the woman Effie thinks "we" are itching to get behind?

    Good grief.

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  22. Deeply, deeply deluded. Like a blog post from some parallel universe.

    People are not going to rally round a government that most do not support. People are not going to rally round a political project that 48.1% of them voted against. People are not going to suddenly believe that the EU are our enemies and that the present situation warrants war-time measures and sacrifices.

    You might believe these things. Most people do not.

    The EU is not Nazi Germany or the Kaiser's Reich. No British person in 1939 or 1914 wanted war if it could have been honourably avoided. The things that you say are being inflicted on us by the EU are the results of our own policies.

    The government know that post people do not believe these things: that's why they cancelled the sending out of warnings about the consequences of a no-deal scenario to every household. They knew that, faced with making a sacrifice to acheive a no-deal Brexit, the result would simply be asking what on earth the government was playing at even considering such an outcome.

    As for firing Hammond, go on, fire the last person with even an ounce of competence about him in the government. This will surely improve the situation.

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