Did anything happen this week of consequence? Nicola
Sturgeon turned up in the Scottish Parliament and said something about delaying
indyref2. If this meant that we would have this referendum in a couple of
years’ time, then what she said would have been of small consequence. What does
it fundamentally matter if we have to go through all that divisiveness again in
one year or two or even three? But the moment has passed when Sturgeon’s latest
threat matters very much or indeed her withdrawal or delay of her threat. It is
this that matters far more than anything she might or might not have said.
The biggest problem we have in Scottish politics,
apart from the continual threat implicit or explicit to break up our country,
is that there is an almost complete lack of understanding on the part of the
anti-SNP opposition of what helps us oppose the SNP and what hinders us. There
is a lack of understanding of the fundamentals which means that even our
success happens more or less accidentally.
The Scottish establishment, which includes nearly
all journalists and nearly all politicians, agree with Nicola Sturgeon about
nearly everything. This is particularly the case with Labour. SNP and Labour
supporters agree with each other on nearly everything apart from independence.
They each want to spend more public money and give more power to Scotland. They
each think that the root of all evil begins with T and ends with ories.
Even Ruth Davidson’s Conservatives agree with
Sturgeon about many things, but most especially about the EU. Davidson apparently thinks that the increase
in Conservative support in the past two years is due entirely to the
outstanding nature of her campaigning and the fact that her Scottish
Conservatives are far nicer than the English variety. There may indeed be
something in this. She has her merits. But she is also missing something.
Big changes in political support are not so much due
to the personality of politicians as fundamental changes in society. Ruth
Davidson still thinks that voting for Brexit was a disaster and if we really
must leave the EU we must leave as little as possible. This means that she essentially
doesn’t grasp why Pro UK support in Scotland has been rising and support for
independence has been falling. The trouble is that hardly anyone else in the
Scottish establishment gets this either. It is for this reason that much that
is written keeps missing the point or rather is even unaware of the point that
is missed.
As I have been arguing since well before the EU
referendum it is crucial to understand that Brexit makes the Pro UK argument
easier and the SNP case harder. I have listed the reasons for this previously
at some length. Really what else of fundamental significance has happened in
the past two years? Do people think that all those SNP supporters just deserted
their party because they got tired of them? No. Even if Scottish journalists
can rarely see it, ordinary Scots came quickly to realise that leaving the EU
was going to be one of those life changing events. It added uncertainty in a
way that hardly anything else has done in the past decades. Well there is only
so much uncertainty that most people want to deal with. How about adding the
uncertainty of breaking up our country? How do you fancy both leaving the EU
and leaving the UK? Scottish independence became “Operation Market Garden 2”.
Nicola Sturgeon’s plan amounted to parachuting behind enemy lines, dodging
crack SS divisions and capturing and holding a bridge while armed only with red
berets. Sorry Nicola we tried that. It was called a bridge too far.
Ordinary Scots now view indyref2 as something for
fanatics. It looks impossibly risky. This isn’t going to change in two years.
It will take at least a decade for the implications of Brexit to be fully felt.
It fundamentally changes the direction that Britain has taken.
There were two paths diverging in the “yellow wood”.
We could have stayed in the EU. The ultimate destination of the EU path is not
known, but it is perfectly possible to believe that it will succeed in its task
of ever closer union and that this will bring with it peace and prosperity. We
chose a different path, not least because we didn’t like the EU route even if
it was going to succeed. It just didn’t suit our nature as a country. But just
as the EU route can lead to peace and prosperity, so too can our path lead to
an excellent destination and one more suited to both our own needs and the
needs of our EU neighbours. The problem is that far too many disappointed
Remain supporters are simply unable to see the excellent possibilities that
Brexit gives us. Some of them treacherously
would like to see Britain fail just so as to point out that that they were
right.
Many SNP supporters could see the attractions of
Brexit. Scotland, even if still a part of the UK, looks a lot more
“independent” outside the EU than in. It is for this reason that some SNP
Brexiteers have become disillusioned with arch Remainer Sturgeon and have ceased
to support an SNP that promises to give up newly won Scottish powers to the EU
and which ultimately would subsume an independent Scotland into a federal EU.
Brexit meant that Nicola and friends went skinny
dipping only to find that the wicked Tories had stolen their clothes. Tory
Brexiteers were able to put forward arguments that appealed to Scottish
nationalists in the same way that Tony Blair had been able to capture many
centre and right of centre voters. People like Michael Gove and Boris Johnson
put forward arguments that appealed to people who wanted Parliament to be more
accountable and democratic and who thought sovereignty mattered. The arguments
they made in 2016 were similar to those that Sturgeon and Salmond made in 2014.
These arguments were not the same of course. The EU is a very different thing
from the UK. The EU is not an independent sovereign nation state. But that is what the EU wants to become. This
meant that we had the paradox of Sturgeon and the SNP defending a union (the
EU) and arguing for its benefits, telling us how dangerous it would be to
leave, while we had Tory Brexiteers telling us how Brexit would give us
freedom, sovereignty and at least more independence. It isn’t altogether
surprising that some SNP supporters preferred an independent UK outside of the
EU than a dependent Scotland in it. It is this that left Nicola naked on the
riverbank even more angry than usual.
More crucially however, it is vital to recognise
that the condition for the possibility of Scottish independence was always the
fact that the UK remained in the EU. Even those who want Scottish independence
recognise that Scotland’s prosperity depends on maintaining a very close
relationship with the former UK. We have three hundred years of shared laws,
economic and family relations. If you put Scotland on a diverging path from the
former UK, then naturally the distance between us politically and economically
will increase dramatically over the years. This changes the calculation that
everyone in Scotland makes in their head about the advantages and disadvantages
of independence. Do I really want quite such a gap between London and
Edinburgh? How would that affect my job and the prospects of my family? This is
a fundamental change, not a transient change based on the popularity or
unpopularity of a politician. Put simply Brexit makes Scottish independence
less attractive even to those who may be tempted. The floating Nats therefore
have left the cause, while the fanatics have sunk to the bottom of the pond.
From all of this it follows logically that Pro UK
people should support us leaving the EU as completely as possible. The more the
UK leaves the EU, the more divergent Scotland’s path would become if it chose
independence. If we were to stay in the EU’s Single Market, or the Custom’s
Union or anything else then the risk of Scottish independence would precisely
thereby be increased.
I don’t think some Pro UK people even realise how
dangerous our situation was a couple of years ago. The SNP won all but three of
the seats in the 2015 Election. Keep that up and they would in time have got
indyref2. Keep that up and they might have won it. That I think was our choice.
Stay in the EU and face the break-up of Britain or leave the EU and keep our
country intact.
We needed a game changer. We got it. Now some people
who think they are clever want to give it up.
Just about a year ago I returned from holiday to a
string of messages from Pro UK people complaining that I been arguing for
Brexit and now look what I had done. There was panic. Sturgeon was continually
on the television. There was an idea that she might hold an immediate
unofficial indyref and that she might win it. Many Pro UK people were terribly
pessimistic. I kept writing about the fundamentals. Short term noise can change
polls, but such change does not last. Our position had been strengthened
immeasurably and time would show this to be the case. But Pro UK pessimism
ruled for a while until the logic of the position became clear. But even now
far too few Pro UK Scots are willing or able to follow this logic from assumption
to conclusion.
Sturgeon kept making threats. She wanted a special
deal for Scotland that would keep us in the EU while the other parts of the UK left.
This would have amounted to independence lite. But anyway she would have
retained independence heavy for a later day and would have been able to show
her supporters that she was taking steps towards it. There was then a vote in
the Scottish Parliament for indyref2. Surely no-one would dare say “No” to the
mighty Scottish Parliament. If anyone dared the Scottish people would go
ballistic and support for independence would increase.
All those “Remain” journalists, bitter at losing
their beloved EU were somehow eager that Sturgeon would punish the English for
Brexit. I kept saying that Brexit was our friend and would help the Pro UK
cause. Almost no-one believed me.
I think Brexit will bring advantages, but it doesn’t
fundamentally matter. It still locks the UK together. There will at some point be a recession, but
we will become a country like Japan, Australia. Just as with them we will relearn some
fundamental lessons. You don’t need to be ruled by someone else to trade with them.
Prosperity does not depend on being part of the European Union or any other
trading bloc. If it did Australia and Japan would be poor. Instead most of the
EU is poor.
A Japanese or an Australian can feel that they are
internationalists without wanting to create either an Asian Union where they
are ruled from Beijing or an Australasian Union where they are ruled from
Jakarta. Internationalism is about nation states cooperating rather than
merging and thereby ceasing to exist. Neither is it nationalistic for an
Australian to wish to maintain his nation state’s sovereignty and prevent
undemocratic rule from abroad. If this were nationalistic then the word
“nationalism” would apply to virtually every nation state in the world and so
would drop out of usage. If everyone is a nationalist then, no-one is.
The SNP strategy is now in tatters. They had a vote
in the Scottish Parliament, but this has now been superseded by the General
Election. If the Scottish electorate wanted indyref2, then we would have
expected the SNP share of the vote to increase. We would have expected them to
retain all their seats and perhaps gain more. Instead they lost a large share
of the vote and a large number of seats. Whatever else the SNP have, they no
longer have a mandate for indyref2. We have just tested the theory that saying “No”
to Scots leads to a rising of the clans and a temper tantrum that makes
independence inevitable. We have discovered that Scots in fact are grownups who
are able to discern what is in our long term interest. We have learned that Theresa
May can keep telling the SNP that they will have to wait for as long as she
likes. Sturgeon kept making threats, but they have been shown to be empty. She
has become a Scottish doll. You open it up just to find another still more angry
than the first. But the whole thing is empty just a piece of kitsch picked up
on the Royal Mile, the sort of thing that most Scots find vaguely embarrassing.
For the moment Scottish independence is
a dead issue.
The only thing we have to worry about is that the
present Government falls. There is no need for this to happen. It could happily
go on for years with the DUP votes. But a leadership challenge to Theresa May
might force another General Election. It just needs a few MPs to put their
loyalty to the EU above their loyalty to our country and we might face another
election.
The danger we face is that it is now obvious that
Jeremy Corbyn would have happily made a deal with the SNP. Even with
considerably fewer seats than the Conservatives he wanted to try to form a
Government. How could he have done so without the SNP MPs?
This is really the only way Sturgeon can get her
indyref2 any time soon. We were within a whisker of this happening in June.
Just a few more Labour seats would have put Corbyn over the line where he could
have ruled so long as he made a deal with the SNP. I kept warning people about
this, but “Pro UK” Labour people cared more about their party winning seats
than stopping indyref2.
So if there is another General Election I will make
the same argument. Pro UK Scots should avoid Labour as the most likely outcome
of a Labour victory is indyref2.
But I will give Labour a free argument. They can
make the point that the one thing that is preventing a Labour Government with
an absolute majority is that too many Scots vote for the SNP. If people like
Mhairi Black really wanted socialism they would encourage their constituents to
vote for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour. They are far more likely to get it in this way
than by voting for the SNP. The UK is closer to a Far Left Government than we
ever have been before. True socialism is in reach. Not some wishy washy Tony
Blair style social democracy, but rather the real deal. The only thing that is
stopping this not only in Scotland, but the UK as a whole is the SNP.
In this way the UK is reintroducing two party
politics. My argument will be about stopping Labour because I think socialism
makes all of us poorer and less free. My evidence for this will be ever
instance of socialism in the history of the world. But Labour supporters now
have raw red meat steaks thrown to them by Mr Corbyn. It doesn’t appeal to me,
but I can see how true believers in socialism are enthused. The smaller
parties, including the Lib Dems and the SNP are going to get squeezed. While
the rest of us debate about the merits of the free market versus Mr Corbyn’s
first five year plan, whatever the SNP or the Lib Dems might have to say begins
to look irrelevant, even quaint.
I think it is vital that we avoid a far left Labour
Government, but it may be that the youth of today have to learn this lesson for
themselves. It’s like touching the stove. No matter how many times you tell a
child that they mustn’t touch it, you just know that they won’t learn the
lesson until they do. At some point we will have to endure a Labour Government.
Perhaps it would be better if we went for full on socialism rather than the
watered down version. At least that way the failure will be clear sooner.
Everyone will have touched the stove and we can get another Tory Government to
fix Labour’s mess.
That’s fine just so long as the price of Labour’s
mess does not include Scottish independence. If Corbyn granted indyref2 and
bankrupted the UK with his socialism, it might well be that Scots would vote to
leave just to get away from him.
There is nothing much left to talk about in Scottish
politics. I may well take a break from this topic. I am uninterested in the day
to day minutiae of the Scottish Parliament. So until I can think of something new
and interesting to say about Scottish politics, I will have to look for other
things to write about. This will at least enable this blog to tick along. But
for the moment I can summarise where I think we are in Scottish politics in the
following way.
Strategically I believe it is vital that the present
Government at least gets us out of the EU before there is another election. This
leaves the SNP with a mountain to climb. The fundamentals would then be
massively against Scotland voting for independence. The reason is that the
transition from leaving the UK to joining the EU is liable to leave Scotland
neither in the UK’s internal market nor in the EU’s Single Market at least for
a period of time. There can be no seamless transition for Scotland so long as
the UK actually leaves the EU. Getting the UK out of the EU before indyref2 was
our first task. This is now within our grasp.
What sort of EU deal would Scotland get? We have no
idea. But it could not possibly be as good as now. It must involve paying a
larger membership fee for there would be no rebate. It might involve a hard
border with England. Even if the Republic of Ireland can maintain an open border
with Northern Ireland, this is because the Republic of Ireland is an EU member
and everyone realises that decades of terrorism creates a special case
situation. We don’t know what if any objections countries like Spain might have
to Scotland’s membership. The SNP also are going to have to explain why they
want to give up powers that the Scottish Parliament has just begun to exercise
over matters such as fishing. If Scotland were to join the EU from scratch we
would have to create our own currency and then promise to join the Euro and
also Schengen. None of this looks very appealing.
After getting us out of the EU, the UK Government’s
task will be to delay indyref2 until we see how Brexit is working out. Luckily
this is in the Conservative manifesto. It is absolutely crucial that the SNP
should have to win an absolute majority at the next Scottish Parliament election
on a clear, unambiguous manifesto commitment to holding indyref2. SNP support
is in decline and is likely to decline still further as the Brexit process
continues. If the SNP fail to gain an overall majority at the Scottish
Parliament then our long constitutional nightmare which started in 2007 will be
over. No majority, then no vote for indyref2. That’s it. It will then be over.
The SNP’s dream will be dead until and unless they once more get an overall
Scottish Parliament majority.
We are close folks. The only threat is a snap
election and a Corbyn coalition with the SNP. Other than that we are almost
there. It is for this reason that I am rather pleased that Theresa May’s
Government is propped up by the DUP. They must know that Northern Ireland’s
future in the UK depends on Scotland remaining in the UK also. For this reason
if they are sensible they won’t push too hard, nor ask for too much.
The Pro UK task is simply this. Let us get through
the next few years. Get us out of the EU as cleanly as possible and as
advantageously as possible, but above all get us out. This will automatically
over time work towards unifying the UK as we face the task together of building
a new future. Continue to put obstacles in the way of the SNP. Delay,
obfuscate, do what is necessary to stop indyref2 before the next Scottish
Parliament elections. This is not a problem so long as we have a Prime Minister
who is willing to stand firm. I hope for
this reason that we keep Theresa May for as long as possible.
The SNP’s position had extended far beyond their
supply lines and had become untenable. This is why Nicola Sturgeon has decided
to retreat. But I don’t think she is fully aware of the reason for her defeat.
She thought that she could use Brexit to build herself a bridge to
independence. But her strategy was built on the assumption that Brexit was
going to help her argument, instead it destroyed it. She now has no bridge. It
wasn’t only too far. While Sturgeon thought she was approaching her bridge it
was all the time receding into the distance.