Recent experience has taught everyone with an
interest in politics not to rely too much on opinion polls. However, the
present General Election campaign is unusual because there has been an actual
poll which has acted as an hors d'œuvre to the main course on June 8th. We
don’t know if the May 4th Local Election results will be completely mirrored in a few
weeks’ time, but it is unlikely that they will be overturned. Of course, this
is no time to be complacent. Much can still happen in the weeks ahead. But it
is sensible to use the Local Election results to develop strategies.
It is becoming ever clearer that Brexit negotiations
are going to be difficult. This need not be the case. It is perfectly possible
for both the UK and the EU to reach a deal that is beneficial to both sides. The
UK wants very little indeed. We want something close to free trade. We’d like a
reciprocal arrangement about the right to live and work in the EU and the UK.
There’s nothing much else we want. There’s indeed nothing much else we’ve ever
wanted. We don’t want to be ruled by the EU but we’d quite like to continue
trading freely with them.
Unfortunately it is becoming obvious that the EU is
seeking to punish Britain in some way. This is in part psychological. It is the
sort of behaviour that happens after a divorce. The EU also worries that if
Britain succeeds in leaving and all goes fairly well, then this will encourage
other countries to leave.
We don’t know how these negotiations are going to
play out. Maybe the EU position will soften behind closed doors. But it’s
always best to take people at their word. At the moment the EU is acting as an
unfriendly power. They don’t wish Britain well. On the contrary, they are
trying to harm our position economically. They wish to damage us diplomatically
and harm our international relations. If that is not
unfriendly, what is?
The EU is taking positions that could potentially
injure the UK with regard to Gibraltar, Northern Ireland and perhaps Scotland.
They would like to see our economy hurt by their demands for ever higher exit
fees. They think it would be worth it if UK trade with the EU was decreased
even at the expense of their own trade. It may be that the EU is not interested in
mutual self-interest, but only in how best to punish Britain. This is the mentality of a wife wrecking her
ex-husband’s car.
We shouldn’t exaggerate this situation, but nor
should we underestimate it. The EU has shown itself to be what it always was.
Thank goodness we are leaving. Who wants to be in a group that is held together
by threats, extortion and bully boy tactics?
But then this is a time when we are going to need
strong leadership. Theresa May has been nothing if not polite to the EU. She
has made it clear that Britain wants to maintain a friendly relationship. But
even she has been frustrated by the negativity and hostility coming from the
EU.
The next few years are going to crucial for the UK.
We will either come to a mutually beneficial arrangement with the EU or else we
will have to walk away from the negotiations with no deal and carve out a new
path on our own. Theresa May realised this and for this reason called an
election. She knew that her majority was not going to be enough to make the
crucial decisions that she would need to make. It was EU intransigence that
forced her hand.
Can you imagine the alternative to Theresa May
leading. Jeremy Corbyn gained two
E-grade A levels and left school at 18. Theresa May has an Oxford degree and
went on to work for the Bank of England. There is a gulf between the intellects
of May and Corbyn that is immediately obvious whenever they speak in the House
of Commons. Corbyn just isn’t up to the job of being Prime Minister. He has
extreme left-wing views which have nearly destroyed the Labour Party. If given the
chance he would destroy Britain and perhaps even take a perverse joy in doing
it. Above all the Left is about self-hatred.
Tim Farron won’t be Prime Minister, but his party
could along with the SNP form a pact that would enable Jeremy Corbyn to rule.
It’s hard to imagine anything worse than Corbyn negotiating with the EU, but
what if everything he did was controlled by Lib Dem and SNP votes. Imagine how
the EU would react to a “coalition” of Remainers who would just love to have a
second referendum on EU membership. Oh please hurt us some more Mr Farron would
tell Juncker. We deserve it. We dared to leave the blessed EU. Oh please take
us back. We have repented. Only we are not worthy of membership. Do you really
want such a man having anything to do with the EU negotiations?
In the tough times ahead Britain needs Theresa May’s
strength. It must be credible that Britain’s leader would walk away from a bad
deal. No one could be in any doubt that Mrs May would do just that. There no
way that a government that depended on the votes of Farron and Sturgeon would
walk away. But it is precisely and only the threat to walk away that might just
bring sense to the EU. It might get us a mutually beneficial deal. The
Farron/Sturgeon ultra remainer stance would just encourage the EU to increase
their demands still further. The EU will exploit any weakness either to give
Britain the worst deal possible or else to make us come begging to remain. Mr
Farron isn’t going to stand up to the EU. He agrees with them.
Since last June when the UK unexpectedly voted to
leave the EU, there has been a continual rear-guard action by disappointed
Remainers. I think this has encouraged the EU to think that the UK is divided.
But whatever the rights and wrongs of the continuing Remain campaign it has now
gone too far.
First we had a court case demanding that Parliament
would have its say. Well Parliament did have its say. But that wasn’t enough.
Now there is a tactical voting campaign which has the ultimate goal of stopping
Brexit. These people just won’t take no for an answer. Nothing except
overturning the Leave vote will satisfy them. Some Remain supporters would even
prefer that the SNP were elected if it stopped Brexit. They would see the
break-up of Britain as a small price to pay if only the bits could stay in the
EU. Sorry folks, but Ultra-Remainers are becoming anti-British.
The UK is now at one of those crucial moments in
history. Once more we are up against it. Europe appears united and less than
friendly. We have a tough fight on our
hands. Now is not the time to side with those who are hostile to Britain.
As always the British public gets it. There has been
no surge of support in the local elections for the Lib Dems. Most people have
moved on from last year’s debate. We all now want to get the best deal possible
for Britain. It is for this reason the electorate will look with distaste at Mr
Farron’s party. We know that Jeremy Corbyn hates Britain because he has so
often sided with our country’s enemies. But the Europhile Lib Dems are in
danger of siding with the EU at a time when we need every Brit to act in the
national interest. When the EU is unfriendly to Britain it is downright
unpatriotic to agree with them. I suspect the Lib Dems will find out that this
doesn’t play very well with British people.
UKIP have done their job and there party no longer
has a purpose. If UKIP could only win one seat in 2015 it is highly unlikely
that they will win any seats in 2017. Only an emphatic Conservative victory can
deliver Brexit. But voting UKIP in certain seats could still prevent a
Conservative MP being elected. Again the results in the local elections show
that the British electorate gets this. I never much cared for Farage. In the
end Leave won the referendum despite his efforts not because of them. But the
present UKIP leader is simply a buffoon. Better by far if UKIP finishes the job
it started by ceasing to be. UKIP supporters can either help the Brexit process
by voting Conservative or hinder it and perhaps hand victory to the Remainers
by voting UKIP.
In Scotland Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP all
lost seats at the local elections. The Conservatives made massive gains. It is
absolutely clear that the momentum is with the Tories. Neither the Lib Dems nor
Labour have enough support to challenge the SNP. But the Conservatives do. We
need one Pro UK party which everyone gets behind. Only in this way can we turn
our Pro UK majority into a majority of seats.
It would be better by far if Labour and the Lib Dems
were wiped out in Scotland. This would make the choice clearer. You either vote
for the Pro UK party or you vote for the anti-UK party. Once this choice
becomes obvious then we can defeat the SNP. Divided we simply won’t be able to
do so.
Theresa May will continue to stand up to Sturgeon.
But she needs the votes of Pro UK Scots to show that we support her in telling
the SNP that there will be no indyref2 anytime soon. If you are happy to have a
second independence referendum next year, then vote for any other party than
the Conservatives. Neither Farron nor Corbyn would be able to stand up to
Sturgeon as they would depend on SNP votes and cooperation at Westminster.
There is a simple conclusion. Every single Conservative vote anywhere in Scotland
makes indyref2 less likely. That’s your choice. That’s your responsibility.
Ruth Davidson is a moderate. The Scottish
Conservatives are a centre party, with policies that most moderate Lib Dems and
Labour people could live with. She is becoming a major force in British
Conservatism and will act as a moderating force on those who would be tempted
to take the party away from the centre. Theresa May too wants to create a
Britain that is fair and which helps those who are struggling. But both
Davidson and May know that only a UK with a strong economy can bring about
social justice. How else are we going to be able to afford increases in public
spending?
