A short time ago it looked as if there would
indyref2 within a year or so. I could feel the tension building within myself,
I could sense it coming from others. If there were going to be another vote on
independence next year, the campaign would begin more or less now. It would be
another long and drawn out affair with the result uncertain to the end. All the
old arguments would be repeated with new variants. I dreaded the prospect.
It didn’t look as if anything could be done to stop
this. Somehow an idea had developed in Scotland that you just couldn’t say “No”
to Nicola Sturgeon. Apparently if you did something apocalyptic would happen.
If a UK Prime Minister said “No” it would lead to something like the 1745
Rebellion. The clans would rise and support for Scottish independence would go
through the roof.
There is a lot of received wisdom put forward by
journalists and others who apparently should be listened to. Much of it turns
out to be quite wrong. Journalists often have access to sources that the rest
of us don’t, but their ability to think is no better than anyone else’s. Sometimes
it’s worse. They’ve been getting quite a lot of things wrong lately.
Few political commentators thought that the
Conservatives could win a majority at the last General Election. Perhaps fewer
still thought that it was possible that the UK could vote for Brexit. Quite a
large part of the media thought that a vote to leave the EU would lead to
immediate economic disaster. Instead it has led to growth. Many journalists
thought support for Scottish independence would rise, because we voted Remain
while the majority of the UK voted Leave. Lots of journalists were until
recently writing as if indyref2 was inevitable and it was happening soon.
Theresa May wouldn’t dare say “No” and anyway Ruth Davidson would advise her
not to.
Now where are we? In First World War terms Nicola
Sturgeon made her great push, but it got entangled in the barbed wire. Maybe
Ruth Davidson was bluffing all along, but she came out in favour of blocking
the latest SNP attempt to break up our country. Theresa May has stood firm. At
the moment indyref2 has been kicked into the longest of grasses. Nicola
Sturgeon is taking swing after swing, but she doesn’t actually even know where
her ball is. Let the SNP spend the next few years looking for it. Meanwhile the
rest of us can get on with our lives. The simple of tactic of telling Sturgeon
that she would have to wait has proved effective. The UK Government has not
said “No” rather they have said “Not yet”. Who knows when we will arrive at
yet? It may be after the next Scottish Parliament elections, then again
depending on the result it may be never.
Has there been an uprising in Scotland? No. Quite
the reverse. Pro UK Scots demonstrated to the Theresa May that we supported her
stance. Hundreds of thousands of us signed a petition saying we didn’t want our
lives disrupted by indyref2. This was crucial. This made a difference. It made
more of a difference than anything I have ever written.
Politics is about public opinion, which is expressed
not only at elections. The SNP like to give the impression that they speak for
Scotland. Pro UK people must continually show that they don’t. Each of us can
contribute in different ways. But every Scot who shows that we agree with
delaying, perhaps indefinitely, indyref2 helps Theresa May maintain that
position.
Of course some Scottish nationalists will be angry.
That is after all their default position. But contrary to some expectations a
Tory Prime Minister saying “Not yet” has not led to a surge in support for the
SNP, nor has it led to mass demonstrations in the street, nor has it increased
support for Scottish independence. Most Scots still don’t want indyref2 anytime
soon and polls suggest the result if it were to happen would be the same as
last time.
Moreover I have noticed some Scottish nationalists
who while maintaining their long term goal of independence have also recognised
that the time is not right. This strikes me as sensible. Why not first do what
we can to make Scotland more prosperous? Why not work hard to improve our
schools and healthcare? Let’s see how negotiations work out between the UK and
the EU. We just don’t know what sort of a trade deal we will get. Nor do we
know the details with regard to a whole host of other matters that will affect
all of our lives. There is enough uncertainty for the moment. I think some of
the more rational Scottish nationalists are reasoning in this way and are
willing to put off their goal for a few years.
The relationship the UK has with the EU affects
nearly every argument for Scottish independence. To debate now is to debate on
shifting sands. On all sorts of issues such as the border, the currency and
trade we have no idea what an independent Scotland would look like. If, for
instance, the UK gets a free trade deal with the EU, would it really be in
Scotland’s interest to leave the UK in order to remain a part of the Single
Market? After all a free trade deal does not look all that different from the
situation we have at present. If on the other hand the UK walked away from
negotiations without a trade deal, would it really be in Scotland’s interest to
prioritise trade with the EU over trade with other parts of the UK? We trade
much more within the UK than we do with the EU. The point really is this. How
can we possibly have the debate until we know how such matters will turn out?
It is I think for this reason that some of the more
sensible SNP voices have been taking the long view. Most Scots whether they
want independence or not are content to wait. It makes sense. For this reason
whereas a few weeks ago it looked like we would have indyref2 soon, now it
doesn’t. It’s important however, that we don’t all go to sleep though. There
may not be a new campaign for the next few years, but we should do what we can
to prepare for one. Pro UK Scots working together at the grassroots level is
crucial. The Scottish media rarely puts forward the crucial arguments that help
us to defend the UK. Too many are defeatist. Too many share the assumptions of
the SNP. But by working together grassroots campaigners can get that message across.
There are local elections coming up in May. We
should think about how we can use them to show Theresa May that we welcome her
decision to tell Nicola Sturgeon “not yet”. Ruth Davidson has become I think
the most effective defender of Scotland’s place in the UK. Now might be the
time to show our support.
I will continue to point out what I think are the
disadvantages of Scottish independence. I will also, no doubt, write about the
developing Brexit story. The key, I think, long term is to tell a better story
about the UK than the Scottish nationalists can tell about an independent
Scotland. Being positive wins. For this reason I am going to look forward with
hope to how the UK will change for the better in the coming years. How we can
become more prosperous and democratic. I will point out that inevitably the
Scottish Parliament will gain more power because of Brexit as will every other
Parliament in our country. I will tell a story about an open minded European
country called the UK that will get on well with our neighbours and continue to
welcome many, many people from elsewhere. If you are Pro UK like I am, I suggest
that you join in with this story. It’s the one we need to persuade our fellow
Scots who disagree with us.
