If you’ve ever played a card game that involves
bluffing, you will no doubt be aware that it crucially depends on the players
not being able to see each other’s cards. I can pretend that I have four aces
only if my cards are hidden. This makes it possible for me to bluff. It also
makes it possible for me to win even if I have a very poor hand. Indeed my hand
may be worse than yours. It all depends on what I am willing to risk.
Nicola Sturgeon has continually been telling
everyone for some time that she is not bluffing. But which card player would
admit to bluffing? While piling my poker chips ever
higher I may suggest that I am not bluffing, but it doesn’t mean that I actually
have four aces. The confidence of a poker player may be in inverse proportion to
the strength of this hand. The bluff only works because of the apparent confidence.
The difficulty with politics as opposed to cards however,
is that we can all see each other’s cards. Every little detail is debated
endlessly in the papers. During interviews politicians are asked about their
intentions. Eventually a pretty clear picture emerges of the cards that are
held.
Nicola Sturgeon gave the game away last week. Since
last June she has been making threats on a daily basis. At one point apparently
she contemplated calling an immediate second independence referendum in
response to Brexit. But she didn’t. She waited for the polls to show an
increase in support for independence. But they didn’t.
At first Sturgeon demanded that Scotland must be
allowed to both stay in the UK and the EU or else she would demand another
independence referendum. Now she demands that Scotland must somehow remain in
the EU Single Market even if the UK leaves. But it is becoming ever more
apparent that Scotland will not get a special deal and that the UK will not
remain in the Single Market. In response to this Sturgeon tells us that there
will not be an independence referendum in 2017.
I don’t think there should be another independence
referendum ever. I don’t believe that the UK Government has an obligation to
give in to SNP threats. They certainly don’t have to do so at the moment. The
SNP do not have a mandate, not least because independence was barely mentioned
during the last Scottish Parliament election. What’s more the SNP did not win
an overall majority. But anyway constitutional matters are outwith the remit of
the Scottish Parliament. You cannot have a mandate to do something that is
outside of your control. Neither Scottish independence nor EU membership are
devolved issues. They are therefore quite literally not the business of the
Scottish Parliament, nor are they properly speaking the business of the SNP.
For reasons that are unclear to me in Britain we
allow some people to threaten to destroy our country while spending vast
amounts of money on armed forces to protect ourselves against others who want
to do likewise.
I think Nicola Sturgeon has poor cards. My guess is
that she thinks this too. But don’t let’s be overconfident. Her chance of
winning is about 50/50. Support for independence rose from 25% to 45% last
time. It could certainly rise from 45% to 50.01% if there were a next time. Let
us do all in our power to prevent their being a next time. The future of our
country cannot amount to a coin toss where we continually must get a head, but
if it ever comes down tails we lose forever. No country in the world would
accept these odds, nor should we. It is vital that Pro UK people work to change
the assumptions that underpin Scottish politics. We must not play the game
according to SNP rules.
Rationally the case for Scottish independence is
continually getting worse. Nicola Sturgeon’s latest announcement makes it worse
still. It is likely that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March and
the process of leaving the EU will take two years. But this means that Sturgeon
has missed her window of opportunity. The SNP optimistically thought that
leaving the UK could be achieved in the space between September 2014 and March
2016. But this means that even if an independence referendum were held in 2018, an independent Scotland would begin life both outside the UK and outside the
EU. What this means is that we would neither be part of the UK’s single market
nor a part of the EU’s single market. If the SNP had been granted an
independence referendum last summer they might just have beaten the clock and
been able to leave the UK while remaining in the EU. But that moment has
passed. Now in order to join the EU an independent Scotland would have to apply
in the same way as any other applicant such as Albania or Moldova or Ukraine.
How long would that take?
As I have argued for some time, Brexit makes the case
for Scottish independence much harder to make. It is vital that we use this
opportunity to make this point ever clearer. If the UK leaves the EU Single
Market then whatever trade deal the UK has with the EU and with anyone else in
the world for that matter will depend on being a part of the UK. This means that
if we have a deal with Australia or the United States, then Scotland would
cease to benefit from this deal if we decided to leave the UK. The more
Scotland depends on UK trade deals the better. This is the opportunity
that Brexit gives us.
Lots of SNP supporters voted to leave the EU. If we
can make a success of Brexit, then these people are more likely to support the continuance
of the UK rather than Scottish independence which brings with it future EU
membership. By being continually negative about the prospects of the UK Pro UK
Remain supporters are liable to play into the hands of the SNP. If the UK can
come out of the negotiations with the EU in a way that is both advantageous for
the UK and for the EU we will have a good argument to make against Scottish
nationalism. Future UK economic prosperity is our best argument against the
SNP. Anyone who hopes that the UK gets a poor deal from the EU or that leaving
the EU damages us economically should frankly join the SNP.
Leaving the EU gives us the chance to make the
argument that in order for Scotland to become independent there would need to
be a hard border between Scotland and England. If Scotland as a new EU member state
had to sign up to Schengen, the Euro and free movement of people it is hard to
see how we could avoid having a manned border. What would prevent anyone
arriving in Scotland just getting on a bus to London? How moreover would it be
possible to add customs duties to goods that were traded from Scotland to
England if anyone could simply drive a lorry across the border? For this reason
it is vital for the UK negotiating team to not give away anything with regard
to the Northern Ireland border that might set a precedent with regard to
Scotland. The Republic of Ireland may amount to a special case because it is
not a member of Schengen, and this may allow a degree of leeway, but it is
important that the UK does not lose the opportunity to show Scots voters that
one of the things that independence gives you is an international border and
international borders are not merely lines on the map. Better by far to man the
Irish border than give the SNP an argument that they can use to break up
Britain. This would also be in Northern Ireland’s long term interest as it is
hard to imagine its present status continuing when Scottish independence would
mean the UK ceased to exist.
At present the EU funds many things in Scotland.
What this really means is that the UK gives the EU money and some of that money
is given back to us. After Brexit it will be the UK Government that takes over
the funding role. Well every time at present there is an EU flag, let
that after Brexit be a Union flag. Make it clear to everyone who gets money for
their farm or for their research grant or for anything whatsoever that the
money comes from the UK. Those that can’t stand the UK’s flag, may decide that
they don’t wish to receive the money.
The argument is going our way. Brexit is making the
argument for Scottish independence harder to make. It is partly for this reason
that support for independence has not increased and why Nicola Sturgeon is
scared to play out the hand and show the cards she actually holds. The only
card she really holds is nationalism. In a Scottish context nationalism is
almost identical with victimhood and grievance. Those nasty English people
voted differently from us nice Scots again. How dare they? With variants this
is Sturgeon’s only argument. Unfortunately it is very persuasive to many Scots.
We must be careful not to add to the grievance. You will have to wait Nicola, is better than "No", but it can amount to the same thing. It is even more important to continually emphasise that most of
the things that we like about living in Scotland depend on our being an integral
part of the UK. The window of opportunity may have closed for the SNP. If we
remain vigilant and if we accept the opportunities that Brexit gives us we
may well secure the future of our country forever.
