Something rather
interesting just happened to Scottish politics, but I’m not sure anyone
noticed. There is so much comment and speculation about day to day political
events that there is a tendency to miss the essential. The complexity gets in
the way of our ability to see the simplicity. The SNP just did something very foolish
indeed. The odd thing is that they apparently are not aware of this fact.
I began this blog when it became apparent that there
was going to be a referendum on Scottish independence. At that point almost
no-one in Scotland was much interested. It took a very long time indeed for me
to build an audience. Mostly I was writing for myself and those few on either
side who could see that the debate was building into something much larger. It
was good practice. If you want to improve your writing just write more often.
I wrote all those articles however, because I
thought that the Scottish independence referendum would be decisive and that it
would end the discussion once and for all. It was for this reason only that I
wanted to win. It seems impossibly naïve now as if I was taking part in an egg
and spoon race. I had thought that if you don’t cross the line first or if the
egg falls off the spoon, then you lose.
Since September 2014 I have put away childish
things. I have learned that defeat in elections does not mean that you lose. I
have learned that in Scotland time flows so quickly that a generation lasts
only a day. It is as if we really did live in Brigadoon. I rather expect Nicola
Charisse to burst into song and dance with a dodgy accent and for Gene Salmond
to endlessly go on about the heather on the hill. But what they both are
unaware of is that it really is the end of their day.
In London there has been a court case where someone
who did not like the Brexit result has been arguing that the UK Government does
not have the right to leave the EU without asking Parliament first. A number of
very important judges, every single one of whom also did not like the Brexit
result, have been deliberating impartially. Studying law means that you can rise
above all prejudices in such a way that you are able to decide matters with
pure reason. In this way you rise above the ordinary masses in a manner that they just
cannot quite grasp not having had the benefit of studying law.
The SNP have also been involved in this court case.
They have been arguing that because leaving the EU will have an impact on
Scotland then the Scottish Parliament should also have a vote. Apparently this
court case is momentous. We are supposed
to wait for the judgement as if it was being given by Solomon himself. But
no-one seems to have noticed that someone has run off with the baby. There is
no case, because there is no baby. The SNP will no longer be able to play
divide and rule. They will not be able to cut Britain in half, because they
have just made the means by which they wish to do so obsolete.
The other day the UK Parliament had its say about
Brexit. It wasn’t the final vote. There will be other votes. There will be more
complexity. But in essence we can be more or less sure that by the end of March
the UK will tell the EU that we are leaving. Apparently they don’t know yet.
The UK Government will have to give Parliament a
plan. But in negotiations a plan is never much more than a wish list. Remember
how the SNP had a plan prior to the independence referendum of keeping all the
things that they liked about the UK while at the same time becoming
independent. The trouble with such plans is that they depend on the agreement
of the other side. We just don’t know what sort of a relationship the EU will
allow the UK once we negotiate our withdrawal. We may say we want to keep these
nice things, but they may say that nice things depend on membership of the EU.
No-doubt we will come to some sort of compromise, but that will emerge only
behind closed doors during the negotiations.
The end result should be quite
simple. We ought to ask the EU for no
more than they give us. If they give us free trade we give them free trade in
return. The number of EU citizens living
and working in the UK should be comparable to the number of UK citizens living
and working in the EU. Negotiation is about giving and receiving. We have
things that we want. The EU has things that it wants. If we are to remain
friends then we can come to a friendly arrangement. If the EU wants to be
unfriendly then it should not expect friendly help in the future.
So some sort of wish list about getting the best
possible deal for Britain will satisfy Parliament. Labour is not going to vote
down triggering Article 50. Thank goodness we have a party in opposition that actually believes in democracy. I rather think also Labour don’t fancy a General
Election just yet and don’t want to annoy all those voters in the North of
England who voted Leave.
The court case in London looks rather irrelevant now
as does the fact that the SNP voted against triggering Article 50. But a
precedent has been set and it has consequences that are quite interesting for
Scottish politics.
We had a legal referendum last June, but since then
we have had continual attempts by those who were disappointed by the result to
prevent the UK from leaving the EU. Now let’s imagine that at some time in the future
the SNP wanted to hold another referendum on Scottish independence. Let’s
imagine also that they won such a vote. No doubt they would expect all of us
who voted to Remain in the UK to meekly agree with them and not kick up any
sort of fuss. We would then all get behind the SNP and work together to create
this new independent Scotland. This was indeed my intention back in 2014 if the
vote had gone against me. But I have grown up since then.
What if a wealthy Scottish woman who was disappointed
that Scotland had voted to leave the UK took the case to the High Court. It’s
hard to imagine that such a case could not be heard. What about the precedent? Moreover, the SNP could
hardly complain, because they had already taken part in a similar case. What if
the devolved administrations in Wales and Northern Ireland also wanted to get
involved? They might argue that Scottish independence would have a detrimental effect
on them. After all Scottish independence would involve the destruction of the
United Kingdom. People all over the UK might argue that they didn’t want their
country destroyed. I imagine Ulster might say No if given the chance.
What have we learned in the past few months? We have
essentially discovered that all referendums are advisory and depend on the will of
Parliament. The SNP have just confirmed that it is legitimate for the UK
Parliament to block the result of a legal, democratic referendum. They themselves voted to do so. But then it
would equally be legitimate for the UK Parliament to block the result of a
referendum on Scottish independence. Alternatively the UK Parliament could
argue that there ought to be a second referendum on the terms of the divorce
should Scotland ever vote to Leave. Perhaps this referendum ought to be UK wide
given that the result would affect everyone.
But referendums have become essentially gigantic, expensive opinion polls. The UK Parliament has the right to say No, sorry we
don’t like the result. This frankly makes having such referendums pointless.
Why have this step of holding a referendum if the UK Parliament decides the
matter anyway?
The SNP by its attempts to prevent Brexit has
essentially removed the only means it has to take Scotland out of the UK. At
some point the UK Government ought to make clear that in response to the events
after the EU referendum it has become obvious that referendums themselves are
pointless and contrary to the practice of British democracy. Well
done SNP. You have not stopped Brexit, but you have rendered yourself obsolete.
