The difficulty we have in Scotland is that around
half the population desperately want independence while half the population
desperately don’t. If there were to be another independence referendum this
September what would be the result? I’ve no idea. It might be that another
passionate Yes campaign would take them over the line. On the other hand, the
same arguments that No put forward last time would still apply and in addition
Scotland’s fiscal position is rather worse than was portrayed last summer by the
SNP. The economics would again be scrutinised by experts and the vast majority
of those experts would say that Scotland would be much poorer as an independent
country. This would all be portrayed as very negative. No doubt it is. I would
hope that any Pro UK campaign in the future would talk much more about how
great a country the UK is. But economics is a vital part of elections and so I
have no doubt that many people would reflect on the impact independence would
have on their personal circumstances.
At the moment the SNP while in theory wishing to
have Full Fiscal Autonomy (FFA) don’t want it now. It’s rather like Saint Augustine’s
statement “Lord make me chaste, but not yet” One of the SNP MPs George Kerevan has
described (FFA) as economic suicide. Scotland requires money from the UK government to
break even. If we did not have that money we would have to raise taxes hugely
and cut public spending massively. One wonders rather then why Mr Kerevan is an
SNP MP given that he has so ably pointed out one of the main benefits of
Scotland being a part of the UK.
The reason Mr Kerevan is an SNP MP, probably has
nothing to do with the economics. He no doubt thinks Scotland ought to be
independent simply because Scotland is a country. The "independence come what
may argument" has a lot going for it. I have no quarrel with someone who says I
don’t care if Scotland would be poorer as we would have our own sovereign
parliament and it would be worth it. Lots of people around the world have
argued in this way. Independence made
Ireland worse off materially for 50 years it also caused civil war partition
and years of terrorism in Northern Ireland. It's clear then that many people are willing to go
through tough times to get independence.
But this is not the argument that was presented to
us. The SNP argued during the referendum not so much that Scotland ought to be
independent come what may, but rather that we’d all be much better off. They
convinced rather a lot of people, but mainly among those who either don’t care
about the economics, the fundamentalists who want independence come what may,
or amongst those who were willing to be led by the fundamentalists. Would that tactic work again? It might. We
live in a Scotland that has just voted for 56 SNP MPs. It isn’t exactly as if
the SNP record in government in Scotland deserves such a level of support. They
haven’t done wonders with those areas of Scottish life that they control. Quite
the reverse. Moreover what these MPs are supposed to want, i.e. Full Fiscal
Autonomy they in fact don’t want, that is if they actually all understand what
FFA is. But if they don’t want FFA just yet, they clearly don’t want
independence just yet either. Independence is after all FFA with bells on. So
the Scottish electorate just voted for 56 MPs who represent a party that has
not made a particularly good job of running Scotland and who have a policy they
don’t in fact want. At least not yet. As I frequently say, can we have another electorate please?
It’s all very well getting your supporters all
worked up about nationalism. Isn’t it great when they treat politics as if it
were a football match involving Scotland? I've long thought that Scottish nationalism stands on the shoulders not so much of giants as on the shoulders of Scottish football. If I had a time machine the one thing I would do would make the UK play football as one team. We wouldn't be having this argument in that case. When politics becomes a football match, then people vote for the SNP like they like they
cheer on Scotland. It all becomes rather tribal almost instinctual and very far from intellectual. But thinking nationalists must realise that if Scotland did
vote for independence we would all have to deal with the consequences and that
means people who are not fundamentalist nationalists would have to deal with
the consequences too. Those SNP supporters who believed the stories about Scotland
being much better off after independence might react rather unpleasantly if
they found out the reverse was true. Others who always knew that the figures
didn’t add up, would most likely vote with their feet. This is not an ideal
situation for anyone who cares about Scotland. Surely we all do.
We need to be grown up about this. We need to think
about the idea of "not yet". Scotland is not yet able to achieve Full Fiscal
Autonomy and for the same reason we are not yet able to achieve independence.
Let’s then put off further debate on this subject until such time as we are
ready. Scotland needs to be more or less breaking even before we should even
think about going it alone. So why not let all of us work together as a united
people towards the goal of Scotland breaking even? As a UK supporter, I would support Scotland breaking even and living within its means, for
I think it would show that the UK is working well for all its citizens
including those in Scotland. But an independence supporter could likewise
support this goal, for it would provide the condition for the possibility of
Scotland becoming an independent country without too much pain.
It would be wise of Nicola Sturgeon to tell her
supporters that independence while remaining a long term goal, is off the table
for the next few years. This would help everyone to get over the division
caused by the referendum. It would also provide businesses with the security of
knowing that investing in Scotland was more or less risk free. We need to focus
on bringing jobs to the poorer parts of Scotland, we need to focus on getting
more value for money out of public services, we need to earn more and spend rather
less. This would give us a Scotland that created jobs and had wealth and that was
dependent not on natural resources but on our own initiative.
If at some point in the coming years Scotland was
demonstrably breaking even or better still making a small profit, we could
revisit the independence campaign again. I would still oppose independence. My
country is the UK and I see Scotland as forming an integral part of it. I see
advantages to Scotland forever being a part of the UK. But fundamentally I want
the UK to remain together as one country, for the same reason that an American
wants the USA to remain united as one country. This has nothing whatsoever to
do with being better together. The UK Is one country and for that reason alone it ought not to break up.
But those Scottish nationalists who wanted
independence would be able to make their case from a much better position if
Scotland were actually making a profit and this profit did not depend on the fluctuating price of a commodity. The best thing of all is that if
Scotland were actually more prosperous than it is now, if there were less
poverty and more opportunity, it would matter less to everyone whether we were
independent or not. Independence would not be seen as the great disaster that
most No voters think it would be, nor would it be seen as the only way to solve our problems as many Yes supporters think. In this way it might be possible for
us all to unite behind whatever that future decision might be and so become one
people in a way that is just not possible today.
If you like my writing, you can find my books Scarlet on the
Horizon, An Indyref Romance and Lily of St Leonards on Amazon. Please follow
the links on the side. Thanks. I appreciate your support.
