I didn’t
intend to write another blog about independence but as John Maynard Keynes said
"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" The
facts have changed. I passionately disagreed with independence a week ago. But now it is absolutely clear that to vote
Yes is an act of unpardonable folly. Here’s why.
There are
two financial journalists I respect above all others. They are I believe two of
the finest minds in Britain. Economics is not a science like physics. No one
can predict everything, but that doesn’t mean they are witch doctors either. To
suppose so is simply irrational. Two
pieces by Ambrose Evans Pritchard give very
grave warnings from international investors and economists who probably had
never heard of Alex Salmond a month ago. Credit Suisse and Nomura are obviously not controlled by the Westminster
Government, nor are Asian Pension funds. To suppose they are is to succumb to a
delusion and a paranoia that fed German nationalism in the years after the
First World War. Andrew Lilico is someone
who writes very deep commentary on economics. I frequently find myself
struggling to understand some of his writing, but always know that the fault
is my lack of intelligence rather than his lack of understanding. In this
piece he shows that the SNP economic case is without foundation and demolishes
each of their supposed arguments.
We have
learned in the last week that every Scottish bank and many major companies would leave Scotland if there were a Yes vote. Imagine if any European country knew
this was about to happen because of a vote in an election. Which of them would
vote for it to happen? It would obviously damage Scotland economically and make
us all much poorer. But more importantly if all of these companies, (who again
unless you believe “Westminster” controls world economics are quite free to
decide), believe that an independent Scotland is not a place they can do
business, what does that tell you about what the SNP promises about independence.
Mark Carney
the most respected central banker in the world has confirmed that Scotland
could not be independent and have a currency union with the UK, moreover if we
tried to use the pound unilaterally it would cost each of us up to £18000
pounds. Something the SNP haven’t even
thought of in their calculations. Imagine what
that would do to public spending plans in Scotland. Imagine how taxes would
have to be raised or spending cut. Imagine how the poorest in Scotland would be
hit.
Finally
Deutsche Bank has just warned that a Yes vote would be a historic mistake
having the potential to set off another great depression. These are Germans who are sober and perhaps a little dull. They don't tend to exaggerate. We’ve spent the last
6 years trying desperately to recover from the greatest economic crisis since the 1930s. To set off another is
sheer folly.
The world economy
is tightly interconnected. The Eurozone which is still struggling is one shock
away from a renewed crisis. Have you seen how poor the people of Spain and
Italy are? In Spain many people get no benefits at all. How do you think these
people will react if Scotland makes their situation worse?
The EU was
set up in response to nationalism destroying Europe twice in the first half of
the 20th Century. I know Scottish nationalists think their
nationalism is different, but most Europeans will fail to see the distinction
if their lives are blighted with a threat they thought they had seen off. It is
for this reason that Europe’s top lawyer gave a warning this week that Scotland
would not be allowed into the EU. JosephWeiler has been called the greatest lawyer in the world and he absolutely
destroys the legal and moral case for an independent Scotland joining the
EU. There’s a reason for this. There is
latent nationalism all over Europe. There are groups of nationalists quite
small in number who would love to use the example of Scottish independence to resurrect
their grievances about lost countries or boundaries that don’t include their
people. If you doubt this read the following.
I have
personally experienced what happens when Civic nationalism sets off latent
emotions. I’ve known Ukrainian civic nationalists who just wanted to promote
their culture, their language, who wanted to get on with their neighbours and
create a prosperous western democracy in the EU. They told me all the same
things that Scottish nationalists tell me. They also had the best intentions.
But like so often their nationalism blew up in their faces.
I promise
you if the sort of people who are warning now about the consequences of a Yes
vote were doing the opposite and warning of the dangers of a No vote. I would
vote Yes. It would be my moral duty to do so.
There are a
lot of Scots who are either unable or unwilling to understand the economics
that has been set out here. There are charlatans spreading lies who have no expertise about what they speak and not much education either. Nor are many Scots willing or able to understand Scotland in an international context. But it hardly needs to be said that if
even a fraction of the damage that is threatened internationally happens
because of a Yes vote, Scotland would hardly be welcomed with into the
international community with open arms.
If you think all this is scaremongering, if you think the whole world is wrong and only you are right that "Westminster" is making them say all of this. I would seek treatment if I were you. The world isn't scaremongering, it's scared. So am I.
I know there
are thinking, intelligent Yes voters. Good people who have supported the SNP
all their lives. If you understand the issues, if you realise the danger that
Scotland faces, you have a clear duty to speak out. I know that you desperately
want independence. But this goes beyond politics. It is absolutely clear that
right now independence cannot be achieved safely. If you vote for independence
knowing the damage it would do to Scotland, the poorest in Scotland most of
all, you are clearly not a fool for you have the intelligence to understand
what you are doing. If you put your desire for independence above the suffering
of others, both here and elsewhere, you are obviously a fanatic who cannot be
reasoned with. If you think it would be worth it you have lost all sense of
moral values. To understand what I have just written and vote Yes is not an act
of folly it is the act of a knave.
If you like my writing, please follow the link to my book Scarlet on the Horizon. The first five chapters can be read
as a preview.
