How should we respond to a Michelle O'Neill of Sinn
Féin becoming First Minister of Northern Ireland? On the one hand we should be
pleased that Sinn Féin is primarily nowadays involved in politics rather than
bombing, but on the other it makes us confront the consequences of the Belfast
Agreement that brought about that peace.
The British government has for more than one hundred
years treated Northern Ireland in a way that no other European country treats
its territory. There are any number of border changes that followed both the
First and Second World Wars that are considered permanent in Europe even though
they are in principle no different from the border between Ireland and Northern
Ireland.
Germany does not seriously seek to reunite the
territory that it lost to Poland in 1945, nor does Austria seriously seek to
reunite North and South Tyrol, which were split at around the same time as
Ireland was partitioned.
When modern day Hungary was formed Hungarians found
themselves in other states, there is no serious movement to reunite them with
Hungary.
It is a general principle in post war thinking that boundaries
are sacrosanct, which is one reason there was such widespread revulsion at
Russia’s attempt to rewrite the borders of Ukraine. It matters not one little
bit if Russian speakers outnumber Ukrainian speakers in in Crimea or the Donbas,
nor indeed does it matter if they wish to be part of Russia, these places are
still part of Ukrainian territory. This argument applies everywhere in Europe except
Northern Ireland.
When Ireland fought to leave the United Kingdom after
the First World War it lacked both the popular support and military means to
take what became Northern Ireland with it, for which reason Ireland was
partitioned. If Ireland had the right to secede from the UK, then Northern
Ireland obviously had the right to secede from Ireland or not join with it in
leaving.
There is nothing especially unusual about an island
being partitioned. Hispaniola has two states. Borneo has three.
The moral case for Northern Ireland being part of the
UK is no different from any of the other border changes in Europe that resulted
from conflict in the twentieth century. To suppose that it is unjust that Northern
Ireland is British is to suppose that it is unjust that Silesia is part of
Poland rather being reunited with Germany.
If you think that the island of Great Britain can be
partitioned as both Welsh and Scottish Nationalists argue, then there is no
logical reason why the island of Ireland cannot be partitioned also. There is
nothing intrinsic about an island that implies that the territory of one part
ought to belong to another. The fact that you share an island gives you no territorial
claim over someone else’s territory. If it did Haiti could annex the Dominican
Republic and Indonesia could annex Papua New Guinea.
There was no sovereign nation state called Ireland
prior to independence so it can hardly claim to have lost something that
belonged to it. Ireland prior to independence was legally part of the United
Kingdom and what became Northern Ireland was British territory. It was Ireland
that took British territory when it left rather than the other way round.
The UK has a better claim on Ireland than Ireland has
on Northern Ireland after all Ireland was British territory until it rebelled
while our troops were fighting on the Somme.
The United Kingdom should have said to Ireland,
Northern Ireland is permanently UK territory if you want to annex it you will
have to win a war against British armed forces in order to do so and by the way
we have nuclear weapons.
But the UK has never treated Northern Ireland as an
integral part of our territory, nor indeed do we treat Scotland and Wales as
integral parts. Each can leave by means of a referendum as can Northern
Ireland.
No one else thinks in this way. Whatever the injustice
of former Mexican territory now belonging to the United States, any attempt by
Mexico to annex that territory would be treated by the United States as an act
of war. If the Mexican Republican Army carried out terrorist attacks in New
Mexico, the United States would not make a deal with Mexico called the Santa Fe
Agreement offering New Mexicans the chance to reunite with Old Mexicans by
means of a referendum.
Americans like Biden are hypocrites for applying a
standard to Northern Ireland that they would not apply to their own nation’s
territory. The USA famously forbade secession which unquestionably had popular
support by means of the bloodiest war in its history.
But the UK did not respond to terrorism in Northern Ireland
and elsewhere like every other country in the world would have. Instead our
government chose to make a deal with Sinn Féin, the IRA and the Irish
government to make the future of Northern Ireland depend on a referendum.
In a way this puts Northern Ireland in a no different
situation than Scotland or Wales or indeed England. Each could in theory leave
by means of a referendum and if they left, they could in theory decide to join
another country.
Again, no other country in the world runs its affairs
in this way. It makes the territorial integrity of the UK contingent in a way
quite different to any other state in the world. No other country in Europe
would allow a part to leave by means of a referendum including Ireland.
We are where we are. Our politics is determined by our
history. The UK uniquely feels the need to give its parts the right to leave.
Polling suggests that the majority of people in
Northern Ireland wish to remain in the UK. Indeed, support for remaining in the
UK is higher in Northern Ireland than Scotland and possibly Wales. The main
difference is that only Northern Ireland has another state Ireland agitating to
annex it. This meant that Northern Ireland was treated differently after Brexit
to every other part of the UK.
The UK government ought to have said to Ireland and
the EU there is an international border between Ireland and Northern Ireland if
that causes you a difficulty then it’s your problem not ours. We should have
been willing to leave the EU without a deal to prevent a border down the Irish
Sea, but we were not willing partly I think because we have always viewed
Northern Ireland as different and only contingently part of the UK.
In the end it is up to people in Northern Ireland to
determine their future, after all voters in Northern Ireland chose to ratify
the Belfast Agreement and perhaps it was worth it to make peace. But in that
case, there needs to be more clarity on the conditions regarding a border poll.
All we really have is the condition that if the
Secretary of State for Northern Ireland thinks it likely that a majority would
vote for Irish unity then there should be a referendum. But there are a variety
of problems with this.
Sinn Féin is still the political wing of the IRA. The
IRA has not ceased to exist. But then any border poll would have to take place
with an implied threat. If you vote the wrong way, we might begin our bombing
campaign again.
This is exactly the tactic that the Irish government
used to justify there being no hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland
after Brexit. If you try to put up a border there will be a return to the
Troubles. Well, the implication must be that this would be still more be the
case in a border poll.
After a border poll in 1973 the IRA did not choose to
give up the armed struggle.
But this puts Northern Ireland in the same position as
Crimea when it voted to join Russia with the Russian army present. It makes a legitimate
democratic vote impossible.
If a majority of the voters now wished Northern
Ireland to remain in the UK, the Secretary of State might agree with Sinn Féin’s
optimism and choose to have a poll this year. What would happen to the Belfast
Agreement if Northern Ireland overwhelmingly voted again to stay in the UK?
Would Sinn Féin and the Irish government accept that
the people have spoken and accept that Northern Ireland was permanently part of
the UK. No of course not, Sinn Féin just like the SNP would immediately
campaign for another referendum.
But this makes the contest unfair. If a border poll
results in a united Ireland, then everyone will have to accept that this is
permanent, but if it doesn’t Sinn Féin can keep on having referendums until one
day it wins. “We only have to get lucky once”.
The British government pays Northern Ireland each year
a considerable sum of money, without which the Northern Ireland economy could
not function. If Northern Ireland were to unite with Ireland, then that sum
would have to be paid by Ireland. But why should the British government pay
money to Northern Ireland if Sinn Féin’s First Minister wants it to leave?
If Michelle O'Neill wants Northern Ireland to leave,
she should first arrange it so that Northern Ireland ceases to receive any
money from the British government by living within its means. After all you
cannot say you want to leave your job and expect it to still pay your wages.
If Ireland wants Northern Ireland not just
theoretically but actually then it has to be willing to pay for it, well when
Ireland covers the budget deficit in Northern Ireland in full, we might first
consider that Ireland is ready and willing to take on the task of managing
Northern Ireland and that Irish voters are willing for their taxes to pay for British
citizens in Northern Ireland. If they are unwilling to do so now, how can we
trust that they would really be willing in the future.
Has Ireland thought of the consequences of having in
percentage terms more foreigners living in its borders than any other European
country. Would they get some sort of special status and rights like other minorities
in Europe or would they just have to do what they were told?
The British government must take seriously the
territorial integrity of the UK and make clear to those that threaten it in
Ireland that it is unreasonable to expect there to be friendly relations
between a country that has just annexed UK territory ultimately because of a
terrorist campaign. Ireland in that case apart from the British citizens who
would remain there could hardly be treated as an ally still less as a friend.
Why then should the Kingdom of Great Britain which would result from the loss
of Northern Ireland maintain a Common Travel Area between Ireland and Great
Britain.
If Troubles arose because of forced reunification, it would
be tempting for Britain to have nothing whatsoever to do with it apart from to
offer refuge to our own people. It would be Ireland’s problem and up to Irish
forces to deal with it.
For that reason, we might be grateful that there was
no longer free movement between our two islands. For it would be better then
for us to have as little to do with Ireland as possible.
If you want it you pay for it and if it blows up in
your face you deal with the Troubles not us.
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