Recently the Shetland Council declared that it would
explore autonomy. Could Shetland declare independence either from the UK or
from Scotland? Could it declare that it was autonomous from either?
In terms of law the answer is No. Shetland is part of the
UK territory and does not have a unilateral right to declare either autonomy or
independence. Anyone who doubts this should reflect that Security Council
permanent members France, USA, Russia and China all forbid secession within
their own states. No one questions that they have the right to do this. A
sovereign nation state can legally forbid secession and indeed prevent it.
The United Kingdom gave Scotland a legal referendum on
secession. It didn’t have to do this but chose to. I don’t think another
currently existing nation state would grant such a referendum. Certainly, no
European state would. But having granted one referendum it is obviously
possible that the United Kingdom might grant another.
Scotland could illegally attempt to separate from the
UK. This is indeed the normal route that countries take when separating.
Rebellion or war has accounted for far more new countries than referendums. Sometimes
such rebellions succeed sometimes they don’t. This route would of course be
open to Shetland too. But I don’t think there are enough rebels either in
Scotland or in Shetland, so we can safely return to the legal route.
If Scotland were to be offered a referendum on independence
there is no logical reason why another part of the UK could not be offered one
as well. If the Cornish National Party wished to have independence for Cornwall
and it looked as if there was reasonable support for this idea, it would make just
as much sense for the UK to give Cornwall a referendum as Scotland. Likewise,
if Anglesey wanted independence, it would make just as much sense to offer the
people there a referendum as it would be to offer on to Wales.
Having once been a country or having once been ruled
by someone else does not grant one bit of territory any more rights to independence
than another. If a group of people calling themselves Scots can seek independence,
then so can a group of people calling themselves Cornish or Anglesonians. Why should one group of people have more rights
than another?
It might be objected that Cornwall and Anglesey are
not countries. But neither were lots of other places until they become one. The
map of the world is full of places that were not considered countries until
they were. South Sudan is the latest example, but there are any number of
others.
But given that Scotland has no more or less right to
an independence referendum than Cornwall, there is no reason therefore why the
borders of Scotland as they exist now should exist if Scotland voted to be
independent. Shetland could vote to be independent if it were given permission
by the UK Government. But so too could Orkney and indeed any other part of
Scotland.
Being an island or a collection of islands does not
give people any more right to claim autonomy or independence than being a
peninsular or indeed a corner in the case of Aberdeenshire.
If sufficient people in any part of Scotland voted
against independence and if they felt strongly enough about it, they could
demand that they were not dragged out of the UK against their will. Scotland does
not have sovereignty over Scottish territory, because Scotland is not a sovereign
independent nation state. Scots who voted for independence would have no right
to claim the territory of those Scots who did not.
At this point the issue would be settled politically.
There might be further referendums to determine which parts of Scotland wished
to leave Scotland and which parts wished to stay. So, there is no guarantee if
Scotland had a referendum on independence and Scottish nationalists won that
the whole of Scotland would go with them. It would depend on whether places
like Shetland or the Borders felt strongly enough about being dragged out of
the UK against their will to do something about it. The precedent of course is
Northern Ireland, where the people did indeed feel strongly enough about it.
But could Shetland be independent? The main advantages
that Shetland has is that it has a good standard of living and a very high rate
of employment. If it were independent, it would be able to claim the fishing
rights around the islands. The right to whatever oil is left would be less
advantageous. It is unclear even that North Sea oil will ever bring a profit to
anyone again especially considering that the rigs at some point will have to be
decommissioned and that is part of the cost.
But Shetland would have at least as good a chance as
the Faeroe Islands and a rather better chance than Scotland as a whole, because
Shetland lacks the disadvantages of the post-industrial Central Belt with its high
unemployment and social deprivation. Control of the waters around the Faeroes
as given the people living there a good standard of living and they are able to
manage semi-independence from an autonomy within the Kingdom of Denmark very well
indeed.
Full independence might prove as difficult for
Shetland as it would for Scotland. Shetland would have to take a proportional
share of the UK’s national debt, which would be more than 100% of Shetland’s
GDP. It’s hard to see how either Shetland or Scotland could make a start under
those circumstances. If they refused to take a share, the UK Government could
simply refuse to allow them to leave, which takes us back to rebellion.
Shetland would have to decide what it wanted to do
about currency. It would be hard for such a small country to have its own
currency. It would be hard also for Shetland to manage without a university or
a hospital that could treat serious illnesses.
If Shetland wished to separate from Scotland it’s best
option would be to remain a part of the UK with whatever autonomy the UK cared
to grant it. This would give Shetlanders the same rights as they have at
present to live and work in the UK. They could be given at least the same sort
of devolution as Scotland has at present. Alternatively, Shetland could attempt
to negotiate an arrangement like the Falkland Islands have or Jersey and
Guernsey closer to home. There would be advantages and disadvantages of doing
so.
The main difficulty with such arrangements would be
geographical. The nearest universities, large shops, hospitals and major
airports would still be in Scotland. Shetland would still trade more with Scotland
than anyone else. For this reason, Shetlanders might doubt the wisdom of
separating from Scotland. But by the same logic Scots might doubt the wisdom of
separating from the UK.
Despite the rather odd claim that they are somehow
Vikings, the truth is that Shetlanders are much more similar to Scots and
British people in general than they are to Norwegians. It matters little that
Shetland was once owned by Norway, the overwhelming majority of Shetlanders descend
from the Scots who settled there after Norwegian rule ceased. This is why they have
Scottish surnames. It is for this reason
also that Shetlanders speak English rather than Norwegian. The only Norwegian
speakers on Shetland are either from Norway or have decided to learn Norwegian.
Up Helly Aa was invented in the 19th century by
English speakers and is about as authentically Scandinavian and historically
accurate as Asterix the Gaul. Scots dressing up as Vikings does not Scandinavia
make. But it is not because people on Shetland once were part of Norway that
gives them the right to separate from Scotland, it matters not one little bit
who used to live there. The right that Shetland has to separate from Scotland
would be the same right (if it were granted) that Scotland would have to
separate from the UK.
Scottish nationalists cannot logically demand a right
for themselves that they refuse to grant to parts of Scotland that might wish
to separate from Scotland. There is nothing sacrosanct about the borders of
Scotland. Only when Scotland gained independence would it have sovereignty over
whatever territory it owned. Prior to that any part of Scotland not merely
Shetland and Orkney could decide not to take part in Scottish independence.
There is no international border within the UK at
present, so what the international borders would be if a part of the UK decided
to leave would be up to those living there to decide. Scottish nationalists
cannot require the unity of Scotland when they themselves have fought against
and undermined the unity of the UK.
Scottish nationalists might succeed not merely in partitioning
Britain, but in partitioning Scotland too. Anyone who thinks it couldn’t happen needs to look
across the Irish Sea.