There are only two issues of consequence in Scottish
politics, Brexit and independence. I don’t follow what happens from day to day
in the Scottish Parliament. In this, I strongly suspect, I am identical to the
vast majority of Scots. Most Scots may want the Scottish Parliament but they are uninterested
in what happens there, the rest of us don’t want it and are still less
interested. The Scottish Parliament is like the European Parliament. We may or
may not wish to Leave the EU, but none of us can name our MEP and none of us
follow what happens in Brussels.
The defining issues that are going to determine how
people vote in Scotland then are Brexit and independence. But what has been
forgotten is that 38% of Scots voted for Brexit. At the moment these people are
completely unrepresented by mainstream Scottish Parties. It’s hard to name an
obvious Brexiteer in frontline Scottish politics. The SNP I suspect have some
hidden Brexiteers in Holyrood. The Conservatives may have some too. But Scottish
politicians put forward a more or less united front opposing Brexit.
It is not infrequent for a party to win a General
Election if it wins 38% of the vote. If the Scottish Conservatives won that sort
of percentage it would win far more seats in a General Election than it has at
present and it would win more seats at Holyrood too. The Scottish Conservatives
therefore have an opportunity to become the only mainstream Scottish Party that
is both Pro UK and Pro Brexit.
If a complete Brexit doesn’t happen very soon indeed,
there will be no Conservative Party. It will therefore not matter one little
bit who leads it either in the UK or in Scotland. We have been given one last
chance. Brexit supporters are willing to vote for Boris on the assumption that
he really will get us out and get us out completely. If he fails, in any
subsequent General Election, the Conservatives will go the way of the Lib Dems in 2015.
That was the message of the European Election in May. You either get this or you
don’t.
If the UK leaves the EU completely, are the Scottish
Conservatives still going to be led by a Remainer who thinks that Brexit was a
terrible mistake that will help the SNP to independence. If so, it would be far,
far better if the Scottish Conservatives ceased to exist, because this stuff
just helps the SNP.
The key to persuading voters is to offer them
something different from the other parties. Ruth Davidson did very well in reviving
the fortunes of the Scottish Conservatives, but her main failing was that she
could have fit in equally well in any of the other Scottish Parties. She agreed
with the SNP and the Greens about pretty much everything except independence.
She held just about the same views as Tony Blair, Nick Clegg, David Cameron and
Theresa May. Like them she was mired in the centre ground mush.
But the centre offers no distinction and no real
choice. It is the default of both the Scottish and the British establishments.
It is the Remainer rearguard that is most of all offended that the British
people by voting for Brexit rejected its advice, its rule and its nannying.
The key to defeating the SNP is to cease appeasing
them. Don’t agree with them about anything. Don’t make any concessions, don’t
grant them any more powers.
Some Scottish Conservatives think it is a good idea to
separate the Scottish Conservatives from the UK Conservatives. Perhaps the
party in Scotland will get a new name and a new branding. If you think that
separation is the key and you want to appeal to separatists, then you really
ought to join the SNP.
What we need instead is a Scottish Conservative Party
that wants to unite Scotland still more with the UK. We have reached the
ludicrous stage where nearly every product in the supermarket is called
Scottish and has Scottish flags all over it. They don’t do this in France. They
don’t do this anywhere else, but in Scotland. The EU thinks the solution to
every problem is more Europe. If you think the solution to every problem is
more Scotland, then once more you are in the wrong party.
If a complete Brexit happens, then the majority of
Scottish parties will hope that it fails. The SNP, Lib Dems, Labour etc are hoping
for chaos, recession and poverty so that they can tell us we told you so. The
pity is that some people’s pessimism will actually be used to make the UK worse
off. Some “Pro UK” Scottish Remainers would be delighted if Brexit broke up our country.
But pessimism is not a good campaign strategy and will
quite soon turn out to be a vote loser. Returning to the EU will not be an
option once we are out. So Scottish Conservatives have a choice. We either
embrace Britain’s Brexit future and make it work or we join the pessimists and
defeatists in defeat.
As I have argued for years, Brexit will give us some
very good arguments to use against the SNP. The pity is that Ruth Davidson was
either unaware of them or unwilling to use them. She preferred to agree with
Sturgeon about everything except independence.
Brexit will give the UK a chance to fulfil the
Thatcherite revolution, by turning us into a low tax, pro-business free trade hub.
It will make all of us richer. Conservatism in Scotland needs to oppose
independence with every means available including making it clear to the SNP
that post-Brexit UK will be one nation and we will be indivisible.
The Scottish establishment is united across party
lines that Scotland needs more public spending, more subsidy, more free this
and free that and above all more Scotland. It has appeased Scottish nationalism
and is defeatist about the UK. We need a new Conservative Party that thinks the
UK should be more united not less. We need Scottish Conservatives who are
genuinely Conservative. Who believe in free markets, living within our means
and a small state. Brexit is about bringing sovereignty back to Britain. It can
unite us and unify us and make Scottish independence impossible, but we need a
Conservative leader in Scotland who believes in all these things. We need a new
way of thinking post Brexit, not the same old appeasement and centre
ground mush.